Venezuela: the Pence-Guaidó precedent for Latin America

José Pablo Feinmann, one of Argentina's leading political theorists, explains the larger Latin American context of and concern over the current US-directed coup attempt in Venezuela. Which strikes me as a very curious coup attempt, however serious its directors in Washignton and Miami and the local Venezuelan participants may be about it.

Feinmann writes (Venezuela en la encrucijada Página/12 27.01.2019) about the dangerous example it sets:

Este golpe es un precedente muy grave para la región. Nosotros no estuvimos en el futuro. Pero sabemos – por la realidad actual– que no va a ser bueno.

[This coup is a very serious precedent for the region. We haven't been into the future. But we know - because of the cureent reality - that it won't be good.]

He uses a specific example, the likely candidacy of former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to replace Mauricio Macri in the Presidential election this coming October. Washington didn't approve of the kirchnerista economic policies, which used Keynesian stimulus and a sensible regime of capital controls, price controls, and defaulting on unpayable debts that gave Argentina the longest stretch of economic growth in its history. Washington does approve of Macri, who applied the IMF neoliberal austerity dogma as soon as he took office in 2015 and the economicy has been plagued by job loss and huge inflation ever since.

Supongamos que Cristina propone (de una vez por todas) su candidatura. Supongamos que gana. La pregunta es: ¿podrá gobernar? ¿Aceptará la belicosa derecha argentina una derrota? Ya está armando trampas digitales para un fraude que se da por descontado. Si el fraude no resulta, si pierde, ¿respetará la decisión de la mayoría? De aquí la peligrosidad de Juan Guaidó como concepto político. Se trata de una insurrección. No se trata ahora de analizar las virtudes o carencias democráticas de Nicolás Maduro. Ahora se trata de no respaldar una intentona claramente golpista. El caso Guaidó puede dar alas a otros experimentos para-constitucionales en la región, que bastante castigada está. En caso de ganar, ¿habrá un Guaidó para ristina? Aceptarlo hoy es validarlo para mañana. Aquí harán lo posible y hasta acaso lo insensato por impedir “otra experiencia populista”. El gobierno de Trump carece de sensatez. Su vice es un empecinado del intervencionismo. Como lo era Reagan.

[Let's suppose that Cristina declares (finally!) her candidacy. Let's suppose she wins. The question is: will she be able to govern? Will the bellicose Argentine right accept its defeat? They are already arming digital traps for a fraud that should be considered excluded. If the fraud doesn't work, if they lose, will they respect the decision of the majority? The is where the danger of Juan Guaidó as a political concept comes from. We're dealing with an insurrection. Right now, it is not about  analyzing the virtues or failures of Nicolás Maduro. Right now it's about not supporting what is clearly a coup attempt. The Guaidó case could give wings to other parap-constitutional experiments to prevent "another populist experience." Trump's government doesn't have good sense. Its vice is a stubborn interventionism. Like during the Reagan era.] (ma emphasis)