The danger of civil war in Venezuela and the recklessness of the current US regime change policy

"Venezuela is Latin America's biggest exporter of crude oil and has the world's largest petroleum reserves." - Brian Ellsworth and Andrew Cawthorne, Venezuela death toll rises to 13 as protests flare Reuters 02/24/2014

"Venezuela claims the world’s largest proven reserves of petroleum, an estimated 298 billion barrels of oil." - Michael Klare, The Desperate Plight of Petro-States TomDispatch 05/26/2016

Guillaume Long, Foreign Minister of Ecuador 2016–2017 under the center-left Presidency of Rafael Correa, did an interview with Jacobin magazine on the current coup attempt in Venezuela, The US Should Stay out of Venezuela 01/29/2019. He stresses that while there is clearly a large bloc of opposition to Nicolás Maduro among the Venezuelan public, there is also a large number of Venezuelans who still support Maduro. He warns that this could lead to further violent conflict or even civil war.

Long refers to statements made by former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who has played a major role in mediating talks between the Maduro government and the opposition in the recent past, just after Juan Guaidó announced himself as the new head of government in what we could generously call close cooperation with the Trump-Pence regime change operation. EFE reports (Zapatero dice que lleva años tratando de ‘evitar confrontación civil’ en Venezuela El Nuevo Herald/EFE 23.01.2019:

Zapatero recordó que los mismos venezolanos hablan de “un pueblo chavista y un pueblo opositor” y consideró que de lo que se trata es que “esos dos pueblos o partes de la sociedad no acaben en un choque.

Además, abogado por trabajar a medio plazo para refundar los principios de convivencia o las reglas de alternancia y favorecer el diálogo y el reencuentro.

El político español pidió que los dirigentes políticos, especialmente españoles, favorezcan que no haya “un conflicto civil con consecuencias que pueden ser dramáticas”.

Añadió que “siempre que irrumpe la violencia es peor y siempre se podía haber evitado”. y comentó que a veces “se han avalado” intervenciones militares con resultados “nefastos” y esos países acaban siendo “inviables”.

“Nos suena lejano pensar en Irak o Libia, pero créanme, si Venezuela acaba en un conflicto civil nos afectará y mucho”, concluyó Zapatero.

[Zapatero recalled that the Venezuelans themselves talk about "a chavista public and an opposition public" and considerd that the task was to see that "these two publics or parts of the society don't wind up in a wreck."

Also, he advocated working in the medium run to re-establshish the principles of harmony or the rules of alternation {in office} and preferring dialogue and re-engagement.

The Spanish politician called for political leaders especially Spanish ones, preferring that there not be "a civil conflict with consequences that could be dramatic."

He added that "it's always worse for violence to irrupt and it can always be avoided." And he commented that sometimes military interventions "have been supported" with disastrous results and those countries would up being inviable {a euphemism for "failed state"}.

It rings a distant bell for us to think of Iraq and Libya, but believe me, if Venezuela winds up in a civil conflict, it will affect us, and affect us a lot;" Zapatero concluded.]

The US-British-French NATO intervention in Libya in 2011 wound up playing a huge role in the large surge of refugees into the EU in 2015-16. Libya had not only been absorbing and detaining refugees from other countries. Turning Libya into a failed state removed that barrier that limited the number of refugees coming into Europe.

If your're thinking that refugees being retained by Libya might not be the most humane arrangements, you're very right. But what I want to emphasize  here is wars produce refugees. It's ususally not emphasized when governments are drumming up a war. And almost never prepared for, not least because governments intervening or invading a country typically delude themselves about how quick and easy the war will be.

But an external military intervention and/or civil war in Venezuela will produce more refugees and that will additional internal and international problems for Colombia and Brazil in particular. And, as with Libya and the EU,  the regugee crisis will inevitably play out over years. Guillaume Long warns:

The encouragement, particularly by the Trump administration, of further escalation in Venezuela is therefore extremely dangerous. ...

Venezuela’s crisis has already produced a huge migratory crisis — and further escalation into violence would make this much worse. We have seen in Syria, Iraq, and Libya some of the potential outcomes in this regard. I don’t think even the continent’s right-wing governments have the stomach for that. This realization may eventually lead a growing number of Latin American states, including members of the Lima Group, to understand that the Venezuelan crisis should be resolved at the negotiating table. [my emphasis]

In other news, US intelligence is warning about possible further Russian and Chinese interference in US politics, violating our national sovereignty. See: Ken Dilanian, Trump and his intel chiefs are worlds apart on ISIS, Russia, border NBC News 01/29/2019.

Stephanie Ruhle and Ali Velshi report on that part of the story here, starting just after 5:10, Donald Trump’s National Security Team Contradicts Him At Senate Hearing Velshi & Ruhle/MSNBC 01/29/2019:

No further comment on that for now!