Showing posts with label forever war. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forever war. Show all posts

Friday, January 17, 2020

How many US troops are in the Greater Middle East for the Forever War?

Eike-Clemens Kullmann's article Der Iran – zwischen Freund und Feind im Nahen Osten Oberösterreichische Nachrichten 15.01.2020 includes this graph that lists the number of US troops in various Middle Eastern countries. Actually, the Greater Middle East to include Afghanistan and Turkey.



In alphabetical order they are:
  • Afghanistan: 14,000
  • Bahrain:          7,000
  • Iraq:                6,000
  • Jordan:            3,000
  • Kuwait:         13,000
  • Oman:                600
  • Qatar:            13,000
  • Saudi Arabia:  3,000
  • Syria:                 800
  • Turkey:           2,500
  • UAE:              5,000
These total 67,900. The table estimates the total American troops as 60,000-80,000.

The Oberösterreichische Nachrichten graphic is very similar to the one published by the Washington Post ( Miriam Berger, Where U.S. troops are in the Middle East and Afghanistan, visualized 01/05/2020) and Newsweek (Tom O'Conner, Where Are U.S: Troops Near Iran? 01/06/2020). Those two show the number of troops in Oman as precisely 606. (?) The Post version of the graphic sources the numbers to the Federation of American Scientists and the International Crisis Group. The Post article also describes the estimates by country in more detail.

Kullman writes:
Im Konflikt in der Region geht es aber vor allem um zwei Punkte: einerseits den Streit mit Saudi-Arabien um die Vorherrschaft, andererseits um die Angst des schiitischen Iran, der sich von den mehrheitlich sunnitischen Nachbarländern eingekesselt fühlt. Das Mullah-Regime treibt dagegen eine schiitische Achse vom Iran über den Irak, Syrien und den Libanon bis ans Mittelmeer voran.
[In the conflict in the region, however, there are two main issues at stake: on the one hand, the dispute with Saudi Arabia over dominance, and on the other hand, the fear of Shiite Iran, which feels encircled by the majority Sunni neighboring countries. The mullah regime, on the other hand, is pushing a Shiite axis from Iran to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to the Mediterranean.] (my translation)
But the article doesn't say much about the presence of American troops as such in the region. It does give some background on the decades-long tensions and conflicts between the USA and Iran.

I wonder how many Members of Congress could describe the mission of the troops in each of those countries.

Newsweek provides this summary background on the state of the Afghanistan front in the Forever War:
The U.S. intervened militarily in Afghanistan weeks after the 9/11 attacks that killed nearly 3,000 people and set the stage for the "War on Terror" that has since dominated the Pentagon's presence in the nearby Middle East. Although the U.S. managed to overthrow the Taliban's government, the group has remained a powerful insurgent force that even after 18 years of war has managed to steadily retake regions.

The Trump administration has engaged in successive rounds of diplomacy with the militant group's diplomats in the Qatari capital of Doha in hopes of striking a peace agreement that would foster direct Taliban-Afghan government negotiations. Newsweek reported in August that the U.S. considered reducing its roughly 14,000 troops in Afghanistan by more than half, leaving roughly 6,000 behind—although talks fell apart the following month amid continued violence.

The other great fraud of the Iraq War (or, the Forever War, Iraqi front)

Paul Pillar reminds us of the missionary claim that the US would spread liberal democracy to Iraq and the Middle East that was an additional propaganda claim of the Cheney-Bush Administration, though the false claim of Iraqi "weapons of mass destruction" was the more immediate justification for their disastrous invasion of Iraq. An invasion that was authorized not only by Republican ghouls like Dick Cheney but by leading Democratic Senators including John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden, though the latter is trying to rewrite that part of his story to sound less ominous during the Democratic primaries.

Pillar writes:
Remember how the George W. Bush administration sold its offensive war in Iraq, begun seventeen years ago? It wasn’t just about weapons of mass destruction and mythical alliances with terrorist groups. The war was also supposed to bring the blessings of freedom and democracy to the people of Iraq, who would be grateful to the United States for overthrowing their dictator. The war was to be not just a pursuit of American objectives in opposition to Iraqi ones but an altruistic action for the benefit of Iraqis. [my emphasis]
He argues that the current US occupation of Iraq is a problems for the US in a variety of ways, including:
Iraqi nationalism is the most effective check on Iranian influence on Iraq - if only the United States does not mess up this dynamic with actions that turn that nationalist sentiment against itself. The Bush administration messed up with its invasion in 2003, and the Trump administration has messed up with its lethal attacks on Iraqi militias and its assassination of Qassem Soleimani and a senior Iraqi security figure. [my emphasis]
Juan Cole, whose commentary on Iraq has consistently been better than what the US government claims over the last 15 years, warns (Challenge to Trump: Muqtada al-Sadr & Iraqi Shiite leaders Call for a Million-Man March against US Military Occupation Informed Comment 01/15/2020):
The Trump administration, the US corporate media, and even some Democratic candidates have almost completely ignored the Iraqi parliamentary vote on January 5 obliging the prime minister to take the necessary steps to expel US troops. In last night’s debates, Joe Biden and Amy Klobuchar said that they would keep troops in Iraq, as though it were their decision. Secretary of state Mike Pompeo dismissed the Iraqi parliamentary vote as “advisory.” It was not. It laid an unambiguous obligation on the Iraqi executive. The measure, which was asked for by the prime minister, passed by a firm majority of 170 (165 votes were needed for a majority). It is true that the Sunnis and Kurds boycotted the vote, but Mitch McConnell passes measures every day without any Democrats signing on.

It isn’t actually plausible for the US to remain in the absence of Iraqi government approval ... [my emphasis]
He also notes the risks of the US insisting on maintaining occupation troops in Iraq against the will of the Iraqis and the Iraqi government:
The Trump administration clearly does not want to leave, but if Shiite hostility to US troops continues at this level, it might as well. The US forces cannot train Iraqi troops who hate them and might frag them. And they can’t go out fighting ISIL alongside Iraqi troops for the same reason. They have no mission there as I speak, and seem mainly to be involved in hunkering down to defend themselves. That’s not a posture that can continue forever. And there is a danger that if Trump continues with this stubbornness, at some point the Shiite militias will attack the US personnel. Trump will blame Iran, and we’ll be on the cusp of war again. [my emphasis]
But he also observes that there is some Iraqi popular support for troops remaining: "Iraqi Sunnis are opposed to the US leaving, because they fear it might enable ISIL to return, and because they want the US to counterbalance strong Iranian influence in Baghdad. "