Europe-US-Ukraine-Russia

Here are a couple of John Mearsheimer updates on the current European situation in relation to the US, Russia, and Ukraine.

Here I’ll repeat the warning that I use about every other time I post a Mearsheimer video: If you listen to 20 minutes of one of his interviews and you don’t hear something that irritates you, you’re almost certainly not paying attention. This first one goes a full hour.

This interview focuses mostly on the Russo-Ukraine War, though they do discuss Venezuela near the end. (1)

That interview includes a clip of Volodymyr Zelenskyy from March 2022 talking about how there are some strategists in the West who would see an advantage in prolonging the war against Russia in order to weaken Russia. He was making the case, then as now, that the West should provide maximum assistance to Ukraine. He added a bit of shaming to the pitch by mentioning that cynical calculation.

But cynical or not in the minds of policymakers, that is still very much a reality today. That doesn’t mean that European leaders won’t wind up making better choices. But it’s an obvious consideration that European leaders thinking they need to bolster their defensive capabilities against Russia would see just such a potential advantage in prolonging the war.

As things stand, it does seem like the best that the world generally could reasonably hope for at this point would be a ceasefire in place that both sides would be committed to maintain with no formal, permanent territorial concessions on their part. Trying to frame a peace agreement as a New York real estate deal, which Trump’s Administration has proposed, is a non-starter for Ukraine.

The “rules-based international order” may not have been what American politicians like to claim it was. But the notion that internationally recognized borders cannot legitimately be changed by force is a basic tenet of international law. German leaders were convicted at Nuremberg for the crimes of waging “aggressive war,” a formulation based on the formal international law as well as the “customary martial law” of the time. “Aggressive war” included wars to seize another country’s legal territory.

Mearsheimer and Daniel Davis also talk about the Ukrainians’ decision – following the insistence of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson - to walk away from the negotiations that took place in early 2022 about a potential agreement with Russia. There’s no way to know for sure, of course, but it is an important part of the history to ask whether ending those talks at that time was the best approach.

This interview from the same day runs about 25 minutes. (2)

Notes:

(1) John Mearsheimer: Ukraine & NATO Shoving Trump to the Side. Daniel Davis-Deep Dive YouTube channel 09/12/2025. <https://www.youtube.com/live/PgnOZth4bA4?si=zDXV_Wt652Z1ZWjN> (Accessed: 2025-09-12).

(2) Prof. John Mearsheimer: Can Europe Save Ukraine? Judge Napolitano-Judging Freedom. 09/12/2025. <https://www.youtube.com/live/cIkh_ZXs1Og?si=a-x_cgsM6a5brKgp> (Accessed: 2025-09-12).