On the “How could this happen again?” question

Hans Rauscher in Der Standard (Vienna) just published a grim reminder of the strength of the far right in European politics, including in Austria and Germany:

He cites a new book from German historian Götz Aly:

Aly with icy realism: "An eloquent and shrewd tribune of the people, who uses the fears and frustrated hopes of a majority of the population and promises wonderful future prospects that can be achieved with a little toughness, will also be able to push through his ideas in the future." Incidentally, the rule [of Hitler’s Nazi Party] was largely achieved and secured with "rulers who are still used today and will certainly continue to be used". (1)

Vague references to the possibility of history repeating itself can get stuck at such a high level of generalization can easily get stuck in the stage of a pious reflection if they are not put into a specific context both on the end of the state of affairs to be avoided and of the possible forms and goals of the history-repeats-itself event. Aly has written extensively about the National Socialist Period before. Rauscher describes Aly‘s new book Wie konnte das geschehen? Deutschland 1933 bis 1945 [How Could That Happen? Germany 1933-1945] as a magnum opus on Hitler’s regime of over 800 pages.

In the spirit of the famous comment apocryphally attributed to Mark Twain, “history does not repeat itself but it does rhyme,” we ca recognize that Charlie Kirk’s murder this year was a very different event that the Reichstag Fire in 1933. But at the same time we can see how the Trumpists tried to use his death as a symbolic warning of the dangers of democracy being allowed to continue.

We can also look at parts of American history – colonial war against native peoples, segregation and Jim Crow, racially-discriminatory prison systems – and see elements of fascism like that in Hitler German or Mussolini’s Italy. We can look at how the German Nuremberg Race Laws of 1935 were heavily modeled on US segregation laws and racially discriminatory immigration laws. But it’s still important not to assume that similar developments in the US or Europe in the present will somehow directly mimic those developments. (Except, of course, when they do!)

Rauscher continues:

In a year or two, we could be asking ourselves the question: How could this happen again? How could a series of democracies tip back into authoritarian rule?

The tipping point in the West has almost been reached. Donald Trump is dismantling liberal democracy of (and seems to be forcing the Europeans plus Ukraine to make a "deal" with Putin reminiscent of the subjugation of Czechoslovakia in Munich in 1938). In the leading European countries of France, Germany and Great Britain, there is a threat of takeover by the right-wing extremists. [my emphasis]

The Munich Analogy is the classic cautionary tale against framing current events as essentially like past ones. The Munich deal was a bad one for a number of reasons. But it’s been reduced in common usage – and all too often in its use by professionals and scholars – to a tale of a testosterone contest between Hitler and Neville Chamberlain.

In this current context, it’s difficult to see how Ukraine accepting defeat for the present would lead to World War Three. But that’s no reason for Ukraine or its European partners to accept a bad deal. In any case, the current 28- point Trump/Witkoff plan is obvious a non-starter.

It’s also important not to conflate the foreign policy aspect of the authoritarian threat to European democracies with the internal ones. It’s standard practice for large powers to try to exploit troubles within adversary countries. But those problems are primarily based in internal political and social issues. A bunch of clever TikTok videos are not going to incite people to revolt against stable democratic governments. Which is not to say that governments should be indifferent to political “information operations” by hostile powers. But it’s also important for European democracies to have a reality-based view of what Russian intentions and capabilities are.

One important factor that pro-democracy parties left, right, and center have to keep in mind and have to stop being so feckless about. That is the fact that xenophobia and cheap nationalism are key elements in the program of the rising far-right parties. The pro-democracy parties have to fight against those positions. Mealy-mouthed “triangulation” by trying to coopt the xenophobic sentiments is a loser strategy.

The Dutch political scientist and expert on rightwing populism Cas Mudde recently wrote about how that approach has repeatedly failed to strengthen the left-center parties:

The 21st century has so far seen two simultaneous electoral developments in western Europe: the decline of social-democratic parties and the rise of far-right parties. This has created the powerful narrative that social democrats are losing votes to the far right, in particular because of their (alleged) “pro-immigration” positions. And although research shows that their voters mainly moved to centre-right and green parties, social-democratic parties have been chasing this mythical “left behind” voter ever since.

Research by social scientists overwhelmingly shows that adopting far-right positions leads neither to electoral success for centrist parties nor to electoral defeat for far-right parties. But this has not stopped centre-left advisers, politicians and strategists. Whenever my colleagues and I refer to this research, someone will point to the alleged success of the “Danish model”. The lure is so great that even as polls were predicting the loss of Copenhagen, Britain’s Labour government ignored internal opposition and introduced a number of policies designed to emulate Denmark’s extremely stringent asylum rules. [my emphasis] (2)

Center-left parties need to stop playing this dumb game and get serious about fighting xenophobia.

Notes:

(1) Rauscher, Hans (2025): Rechtsextreme Machtübernahme: Wie konnte das (wieder) geschehen? Der Standard 22.11.2025. >https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000297306/rechtsextreme-machtuebernahme-wie-konnte-das-wieder-geschehen> (Accessed: 2025-23-11). My translation to English.

(2) Mudde, Cas (2025): The ‘Danish model’ is the darling of centre-left parties like Labour. The problem is, it doesn’t even work in Denmark. Guardian 11/22/2025. <https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/nov/22/danish-model-centre-left-parties-labour-doesnt-work> (Accessed: 2025-23-11).