Henry Kissinger on Ukraine, Russia, and the West: 2014

Henry Kissinger is one of my least favorite people of all time. But he was also a talented diplomat. And, as Spencer Ackerman wrote in an obituary for him, “It’s always valuable to hear the reverent tones with which American elites speak of their monsters.” (1)

I always try, when referring to something useful that Kissinger said or did, to avoid “reverent tones.”

But he did an article still worth reading in 2014 just after Russia had seized Crimea from Ukraine. He wrote, “To treat Ukraine as part of an East-West confrontation would scuttle for decades any prospect to bring Russia and the West — especially Russia and Europe — into a cooperative international system.” (2)

Kissinger complained that both the US and Russia had been blundering in their meddling in internal Ukrainian politics. Kissinger had considerable expense in meddling with other countries’ internal politics. (Just ask Salvador Allende.) He seems to put more emphasis on the concept of a Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine and a Ukrainian-speaking west that analysts today seem to do. Even though the pre-2014 elections did divide over how pro-Russia Ukraine should be, the voting patterns didn’t so heavy concentrations of either camp.

Speaking in realist mode, Kissinger wrote:

Putin should come to realize that, whatever his grievances, a policy of military impositions would produce another Cold War. For its part, the United States needs to avoid treating Russia as an aberrant to be patiently taught rules of conduct established by Washington. Putin is a serious strategist — on the premises of Russian history. Understanding U.S. values and psychology are not his strong suits. Nor has understanding Russian history and psychology been a strong point of U.S. policymakers. [my emphasis]

Kissinger made four specific points he called “principles, not prescriptions.”

1. Ukraine should have the right to choose freely its economic and political associations, including with Europe.

2. Ukraine should not join NATO, a position I took seven years ago, when it last came up.

3. Ukraine should be free to create any government compatible with the expressed will of its people. Wise Ukrainian leaders would then opt for a policy of reconciliation between the various parts of their country. Internationally, they should pursue a posture comparable to that of Finland. That nation leaves no doubt about its fierce independence and cooperates with the West in most fields but carefully avoids institutional hostility toward Russia.

4. It is incompatible with the rules of the existing world order for Russia to annex Crimea. But it should be possible to put Crimea’s relationship to Ukraine on a less fraught basis. To that end, Russia would recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea. Ukraine should reinforce Crimea’s autonomy in elections held in the presence of international observers. The process would include removing any ambiguities about the status of the Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol. [my emphasis]

With Joe Biden as his influential Vice President and the hawkish Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State, Obama tended toward a hawkish, confrontational policy with Russia. That was largely continued under John Kerry, which became Secretary at the beginning of February, 2014. Victoria Nuland as Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs 2013-2017 also showed a lot of enthusiasm for regime change in Ukraine. She famously referred to pressures from the EU for restraint in pursuing a policy that would escalate tensions with Russia with her most famous remark, “f*** the EU.”

A little more attention by the Obama Administration to grumpy, pragmatic “realists” might have increased the chances for a less negative outcome for Ukraine.

Notes:

(1) See: Ackerman, Spencer (2023): Henry Kissinger, War Criminal Beloved by America‘s Ruling Class, Finally Dies. Rolling Stone 11/29/2023. <https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/henry-kissinger-war-criminal-dead-1234804748/> (Accessed: 2025-26-09).

(2) Kissinger, Henry (2014): How the Ukraine Crisis Ends. Washington Post 03/06/2014. <https://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/how-the-ukraine-crisis-ends/> (Accessed: 2025-26-09).