A worthwhile warning on conflict with Venezuela

Alexander Vindman is warning about the risks to both US military preparedness and to the risk of unnecessary war involved in the current Trump policy toward Venezuela. So far as we know, the Peace President’s military actions against Venezuela seem to consist of murdering passengers of Venezuelan fishing boat, which the Peace President claims were smuggling drugs. Actual proof of those claims so far is sadly lacking in the public record.

Vindman distinguished himself during the Trump 1.0 when he was an official in the National Security Council because he obeyed the law and complied with a Congressional subpoena:

I am deeply concerned about the growing pretext for attacking Venezuela. Trump’s first administration included prominent Venezuela hawks and saber-rattling was a recurring theme. The signals coming from the White House today suggest a return to that playbook with talk of air and missile strikes couched in the language of counternarcotics operations, yet carrying an unmistakable undertone of regime change. [my emphasis] (1)

That’s an important reminder that Trump's record in his first term did not offer substantive reasons to see him as a “Peace” President. And his cult followers get fired up by rehetoric against Latin American regimes they don’t like. And the rightwing Venezuelan and Cuban immigrant factions in Florida and elsewhere in the US regard Maduro as a bogeyman. He’s not much of a “leftist” by most standards. But he’s friendly to the BRICS group and Nicagua and Cuba.

The administration is attempting to justify potential attacks on narcotraffickers by designating them as terrorists, but this rationale is legally dubious at best. Drug trafficking, even when conducted by violent criminal organizations, falls into a different category under international law and stretching the definition of terrorism to cover these actors sets a dangerous precedent. This opens the door for any administration to invoke “counterterrorism” authority for military action in virtually any context, eroding the checks and balances meant to restrain the use of force.

Equally concerning is the strategic recklessness of escalating against Venezuela under these terms. Caracas remains deeply unstable, with a collapsing economy and a population already suffering from food shortages, mass emigration, and political repression. A U.S. military strike framed as counternarcotics interdiction could trigger a wider conflict in the region, drive Maduro closer to Moscow and Beijing, and invite asymmetric retaliation across the hemisphere. Worse, it risks entangling the United States in yet another open-ended campaign without clear objectives or an exit strategy. ...

In short, the Venezuela option reflects both the erosion of legal guardrails and the corrosion of strategic judgment. By conflating law enforcement with national defense, the Trump administration is undermining the legitimacy of U.S. power abroad and exposing the nation to long-term strategic costs that far outweigh any tactical gains. [my emphasis]

California Sen. Adam Sciff is calling the strikes illegal, which they are:

Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff of California said he's drafting a war powers resolution aimed at preventing U.S. troops from engaging in further strikes until formally authorized by Congress.

Schiff said he was concerned "these lawless killings are just putting us at risk" and could prompt another country to target U.S. forces without proper justification.

"I don't want to see us get into some war with Venezuela because the president is just blowing ships willy-nilly out of the water," Schiff said. (2) [my emphasis]

The Wall Street Journal sketches out the situation: (3)

Notes:

(1) Vindman, Alexan09/der (2025): On Venezuela and the Risks of an Overstretched Military. Why It Matters 09/06/2025). <https://www.avindman.com/p/on-venezuela-and-the-risks-of-an> (Accessed: 2025-08-09).

(2) Associated Press (2025): Trump says the U.S. military targeted a boat allegedly carrying drugs from Venezuela. NPR 09/16(2ß25. <https://www.npr.org/2025/09/16/g-s1-88985/u-s-military-again-targeted-boat-carrying-drugs-venezuela> (Accessed: 2025-17-09).

(3) How Trump’s Strikes on Venezuelan Boats Could Spark Armed Conflict. Wall Street Journal YouTube channel 09/16/2025. <https://youtu.be/mdcfccvfaPs?si=6AlKxton7JsoV1lo> (Accessed: 2025-17-09).