These were dramatic actions that are a reminder that Ukraine is holding out in its military resistance to Russia here well into the fourth year of the current war, which began in January of 2022. Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 and has held it ever since, and was waging lower-level irregular warfare in eastern Ukrains since 2014.
The BBC reports that the bridge has been reopened.
It’s clear that the Ukrainian strikes and Russian aircraft was important for its propaganda value, though it’s not yet publicly clear just how much. Politico reports:
“Probably the worst day in the history of the Russian air force.”But as the same report notes:
This is how the Ukrainian military described its barrage of drone attacks on Russian airfields on Sunday, no doubt elated by the scale and reach of the simultaneous strikes, which might have taken out more than 40 strategic bombers.
The claim was a bold one — and not exactly accurate. At least 1,200 and possibly as many as 2,000 Soviet aircraft were destroyed by the German Luftwaffe on June 22, 1941 — the first day of Nazi Germany’s invasion of the USSR.
Ukraine’s hyperbole notwithstanding, though, Sunday was, indeed, a bad day for Russia’s military. It was also a mighty response to the awful missile and drone strikes the Kremlin unleashed on Ukrainian cities last week — assaults that even provoked the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump, who broke with his general willingness to give his Russian counterpart the benefit of the doubt and accused him of having “gone absolutely CRAZY.”
Sad to say, but while the strike does complicate where Russia should base its strategic bombers and how to protect them, the military trend is still in the Kremlin’s favor, with or without harsher economic sanctions. And as Russia ramps up its production of drones and ballistic missiles, the air war is getting increasingly difficult for Ukraine. [my emphasis]And the chaotic diplomacy of the Trump 2.0 Administration is so far not providing any real improvement in the liklihood of a stable ceasefire agreement that could be the basis of a peace process. So the war will go on for now.
And this is a conventional war in which Russia does have an advantage. Which is not the same as saying that Russia is willing in continue the war indefinitely. But the chances for some kind of stable agreement this year is not great.
And, according to AP News, Russia doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to put an end to the war:
Russia took weeks to present Ukraine with a “memorandum” setting out its conditions for a ceasefire, as well as key guidelines for a comprehensive treaty to end the more than 3-year-old war. To practically no one’s surprise, it’s a list of the Kremlin’s longstanding, maximalist demands that Kyiv and its Western allies see as nonstarters.
Notes:
(1) What damage has Ukraine’s covert drone attacks on Russia actually caused? DW News YouTube channel 06/04/2025. <https://youtu.be/NbrxKXg2hik?si=agXWAZu2REIomL-l> (Accessed: 2025-04-06).
(2) Dettmer, Jamie (2025): The missile math just isn’t in Ukraine’s favor. Politico 06/04/2025. <https://www.politico.eu/article/missiles-ukraine-drone-attacks-bombers-russia-war-invasion-peace-talks-conflict/> (Accessed: 2025-04-06).
(3) AP News (2025): Putin’s uncompromising demands emerge after the latest round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 06/03/2025. <https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-memorandum-talks-instanbul-6014fb7e87c15aa60e30bf72bf6cd2fd> (Accessed: 2025-04-06).
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