Trump 2.0 and Benjamin Netanyahu’s “White Whale,” i.e., regime-change war against Iran

I’ve always thought that the notion that Donald Trump is a Peace President who wants to avoid “forever wars” was wishful thinking. Because to the extent he belongs to any identifiable foreign policy trend, it would be Old Right isolationism. Which itself is basically blustering nationalism and militarism, although it does try to strike a pose of being opposed to unnecessary wars.

But the Trump 2.0 Administration has also been astonishingly inept with diplomacy: on Israel-Gaza, on Russia-Ukraine, on the Israel regime change war against Iran, on relations with NATO allies.

This discussion by Jon Stewart, Ben Rhodes, and Christiane Amanpour is a good analysis of “Israel, Iran and Trump’s Incompetence.” They talk about Trump’s bizarrely bumbling diplomacy and the risks and challenges of making peace – a difficult task that has its own risks. (1)

DW News take a look at the Russian view of Israel’s regime-change war and the implications for Russian foreign policy and for the Russia-Ukraine War, in particular: (2)

Howard French this week gave us a quick reminder of the dubious results of some previous ill-considered interventions:

The United States’ interventions in Iraq were enormously costly in both lives and treasure and left a broken country in their wake that has never fully rebounded. America’s long occupation of Afghanistan ended in abject retreat, having achieved even fewer of its goals and after exacting even higher costs.

Although far less debated, the United States’ intervention in Libya may present the relevant precedent for what could happen if Washington commits itself to war against Iran. That intervention, conducted in collaboration with European allies, helped overthrow the longtime dictatorship of Muammar al-Qaddafi, but it also shattered that country, sending it spiraling downward into warlord-driven violence and civil war. And the collateral damage it delivered to neighboring states, as small arms spread freely through Africa’s Sahel region, was devastating. [my emphasis] (3)

Owen Jones gives us a helpful flashback at Benjamin Netanyahu’s dishonest warmongering in earlier years: (4)

French calls attention to Trump’s arrogance, recklessness, and poor judgment in making Presidential declarations and threats as though they are all part of a reality-TV show rather than a very serious war with huge implications. And to the sad degree of continuity with other US Administrations:

His unseriousness can also be seen in other statements, such as “nobody knows” if he will attack Iran or not, even while calling his demand that Tehran “surrender” unconditionally an “ultimate ultimatum.” This is no way to enter into a major conflict that is full of risks for the United States, for Iran, for Israel, and for the world. What it does appear to be, though, is a way to surrender decision-making about American strategy and national security decision-making to another country’s leader, namely Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who would be realizing a long-held goal of getting the United States to help Israel wage war against Iran if the White House commits to front-line involvement.

The United States is rightly committed to the defense of Israel, but it has suffered a progressive decline in its ability to distinguish its national interests from those of its most important traditional Middle Eastern ally. This has been on clear display recently across two administrations, in Washington’s failure to effectively pressure Israel to end its ongoing slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza and its widespread encroachments and abuse of Palestinians on the West Bank. And over the longer term, it has been clear in the weakness and inconsistency of Washington’s efforts to pursue the so-called two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict that so many American administrations have paid lip service to. [my emphasis]

The “two-state solution” now seems to be nothing but a ritual diplomatic formula. A decent settlement to the Israel-Palestine conflict at this point could only be some version of a secular state in what the Israeli Likudniks call Eretz Israel and the Palestinians refer to as “from the river to the sea.” But the “two-state” solution has been the formal diplomatic framework by the US and other Western countries for a long time. (Whether Trump 2.0 is even bothering to think about the two-state solution framework is another question.)

Notes:

(1) Israel, Iran and Trump’s Incompetence. The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart YouTube channel 06/19/2025. <https://youtu.be/MBak_jde6Yg?si=Sr32Eh3BgX5fBrjL> (Accessed: 2025-20-06).

(2) How pleased is Putin to see the world distracted by the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict? DW news YouTube channel 06/20/2025. <https://youtu.be/Mqw7UxfVaaY?si=WBMqv16caNrOdlOa> (Accessed: 2025-20-06).

(3) French, Howard (2025): The Many Ways U.S. Involvement in the War on Iran Could Go Badly. Foreign Policy 06/18/2025. <https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/18/us-war-middle-east-iran-israel/> (Accessed: 2025-20-06).

(4) Iran: It's The SAME BULLSH*T Again. Owen Jones YouTube channel 06/19/2025. <https://youtu.be/Zo-kTr_bz88?si=s> (Accessed: 2025-20-06).