Knee-deep in the Big Muddy? Will the Big Fool say to push on?

The historian Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. used to say, “All wars are popular for the first 30 days.” The economist and political critic John Kenneth Galbraith came up with a Veblen-esque description of this familiar phenomenon:

Almost any military venture receives strong popular approval in the short run; the citizenry rallies to the flag and to the forces engaged in combat. The strategy and technology of the new war evoke admiration and applause. This reaction is related not to economics or politics but more deeply to anthropology. As in ancient times, when the drums sound in the distant forest, there is an assured tribal response. It is the rallying beat of the drums, not the virtue of the cause, that is the vital mobilizing force.

But this does not last. It did not as regards the minor adventures in Grenada [1983-Reagan Administration] and Panama [1989-Bush I Administration], nor as regards the war with Iraq and Saddam Hussein [the Gulf War of 1990-91, also during Bush I]. The effect of more widespread wars has been almost uniformly adverse. World War I, although it evoked the most powerful of patriotic responses at the time, has passed into history largely as a mindless and pointless slaughter. (1)

And he observed: “the Korean and Vietnam wars, both greatly celebrated in their early months, ended with eventual rejection [by the American public] of the wars themselves and of the administrations responsible.”

If you want a current example of beginning-of-war zealotry, you can check out chronic warmonger Niall Ferguson’s celebratory essay of June 14, “Israel’s Attack Restores the Credibility of the West.” And, no, he doesn’t mean the West’s credibility as a promoter of international law and sensible restraint when it comes to war. (If you want to hear more from him, there is a YouTube interview available from The Free Press, “Who Will Win the Israel-Iran War?” with assistance from a gushing Dexter Filkins. I won’t link it here because, well, it’s nauseating.)

If Trump intervenes directly in the war against Iran, we will probably see some kind of upward blip in support for that action. Though it would likely be more short-lived than usual.

Gideon Levy in a column Sunday remarked on the rally-around-the-flag in Israel:

Israelis like wars, especially when they begin. There has not been a war yet which Israel – the entire country – has not rooted for at its onset; there has yet to be a war – other than the 1973 Yom Kippur War – that did not lead the entire country to express wonder at Israel's amazing military and intelligence capabilities, at its onset. And there has yet to be a war that did not end in tears.

Menachem Begin embarked on the first Lebanon war in a state of euphoria. He left it in a state of clinical depression. Begin as a parable. There is a good chance that this will also happen at the end of the war against Iran. We already have a euphoric beginning – war photo albums are already going to press – but this could well end in depression. (2)

And he speculates on how quickly and drastically the mood in Israel could turn:

The first days of a war are always our nicest ones, the most intoxicating and pleasing ones. Look how we destroyed three air forces in 1967, or how we killed 270 traffic policemen on the first day of the 2009 Cast Lead operation in Gaza. It's always the same hubris, touting the achievements of the army and Mossad.

On Friday, there were already people who, after only 100 sorties, were envisioning replacing Iran's regime. This swollen pride is always accompanied by a sense of righteousness. There was no choice in 1967 or in 1982 – no wars were more just than those two. On Friday, again, there was no other choice. The beginning is like something out of a movie; the end may be something out of a Greek tragedy. [my emphasis in bold]

Breaking Points gives us a good description of the professionalism (NOT!) of the Trump 2.0 regime is expressing itself in the current crisis: (3)

We may be about to see how the Orange Anomaly, aka, our Peace President, handles a serious war. We have some previous experience in how that could go. The last song in this medley that starts at 4:00 in the video is likely to be particularly relevant. (4)

Notes:

(1) Galbraith, John Kenneth (1992): The Culture of Contentment, 166-7. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

(2) Levy, Gideon (2025): Trumpets of Victory Are Sounding, but Its Alluring Melody Will Deceive Israelis. Haaretz 06/15/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025-06-15/ty-article-opinion/.premium/trumpets-of-victory-are-sounding-but-its-alluring-melody-will-deceive-israelis/00000197-6f90-da11-a797-eff053210000> (Accessed: 2025-15-06).

(3) 'EVACUATE TEHRAN': Trump RACES To War With Iran. Breaking Points YouTube channel 06/17/2025. <https://youtu.be/2XKg-7zlEjs?si=AyelS0iqt29J2BkB> (Accessed: 2025-15-06).

(4) Pete Seeger-Waist Deep In The Big Muddy & War Song Medleys (1968). Kehlog Albran YouTube channel 08/07/2015. <https://youtu.be/qHETC5qAnqo?si=HsMAvzzLQnsJKCNH> (Accessed: 2025-15-06).