“In Trump’s book, the Gulf states tick all the right boxes,” Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, told CNN. They “pledge to invest trillions in the US economy and spend colossal amounts on US weapons systems,” he said.Iran is a major factor in the calculations here, at least among the countries involved whose leaders have any sort of actual strategic foreign policy vision. Saudi Arabia would like to get a green light from Washington to push ahead for a Saudi civilian nuclear power program, which could also be a step on the direction of a nuclear weapon, something that would not please either Iran or Israel.
Behind this carefully crafted strategy of wooing Trump is a desire from Gulf states to solidify and formalize their positions as the US’ indispensable security and economic partners, and extract as much benefit for themselves as they can.
US-Gulf relations have improved significantly since Trump returned to office. Frustrated at the perceived lack of US interest in their needs under the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had sought to diversify their military, technological and economic ties. With Trump in office, they see what one Gulf official called “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” for to achieve his country’s objectives. [my emphasis] (1)
The UAE would like to become a big player in AI to diversify their economy away from its current level of reliance on the sale of fossil fuels. The Biden Administration had imposed limits on the amount of microchips from the US that the UAE could purchase. CNN: “On Thursday, the US announced that Trump will rescind a set of the Biden-era curbs.”
Qatar has good relations with the new we-don’t-call-it-Muslim-fundamentalist government in Syria.
Syria is expected to be a key issue that Qatar will raise with Trump when he visits, an official with knowledge of the matter told CNN Thursday. Doha is pushing the Trump administration to lift sanctions on Syria under the Caesar Act, the official said, adding that Qatar is wary about providing any financial support to Syria without Washington’s blessing.Syria’s new government has good relations with Türkiye, which has been trying to become a bigger player in the region. Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is not a fan of the autonomous Kurdish district in Rojava in northeast Syria, which has been supported by the US including with a troop presence because oil. They have lots of it. The fact that this has meant in practice supporting one of the more democratic-oriented regional governments in the Middle East is a positive benefit. The Iraqi Kurdish Rudaw Media reported in April that a Rojava official says the US was planning to ”maintain at least 400 soldiers in Kurdish-held areas” for the moment. (2)
Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in Israel, meanwhile, not only has claimed Syria territory beyond the Golan Heights as its own. Beyond that, it is using its support of the Druze population in Syria to try to prevent the new Syrian government from allowing its military to operate in the southern part of its own country. Which, yes, promises no end of conflict. In a not-unimpassioned commentary on the situation there: Joseph Massad writes:
Last week, the predatory Israeli military took time from its busy schedule of exterminating Gaza's Palestinians, bombing and shooting Palestinians across the West Bank, bombing Lebanon, and initiating an assortment of bombing runs across Syrian territory - including the capital Damascus - to launch an extra special bombing run.In other words, Netanyahu’s government is working hard to make Syria a failed state on the models previously followed in Lebanon and Libya, the latter a highly dubious accomplishment of the Obama Administration.
The latest air raid targeted what Israel claimed was "an extremist group" that had attacked members of the Syrian Druze community, whom Israel "promised" to defend within Syria itself.
Following the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad's regime last December at the hands of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, state-linked sectarian violence against Syrian Alawites and Druze has broken out. Religious minorities have felt beleaguered and increasingly fearful of what lies ahead. [my emphasis] (3)
It is not to be expected that Trump 2.0 will put any meaningful limits on the Israel’s war and ethnic cleansing actions against Palestinians in Gaza. Unless, of course, there is enough meaningful internal and international pressure for a dramatic change of course on Israel’s Gaza project. However, pundits and policy wonks have taken to speculating about how Trump wants to prevent his support of Israel from doing anything that might sidetrack the lucrative deals he wants and with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. For instance:
In what may be the most valuable gift ever extended to the United States from a foreign government, the Trump administration is preparing to accept a super luxury Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet from the royal family of Qatar -- a gift that is to be available for use by President Donald Trump as the new Air Force One until shortly before he leaves office, at which time ownership of the plane will be transferred to the Trump presidential library foundation, sources familiar with the proposed arrangement told ABC News.So we’re seeing speculations about how Trump 2.0 may impose some kind of peace plan on Israel over Gaza. Which may have more to do with an Israeli pressure campaign for Trump to bomb Iran or heaven-knows-what-else. We’ve see how much Trump 1.0’s famous Abraham Accords agreement in contributed to peace in the Middle East. But this version of the speculation comes from Zvi Bar’el:
The gift is expected to be announced next week, when Trump visits Qatar on the first foreign trip of his second term, according to sources familiar with the plans.
Trump toured the plane, which is so opulently configured it is known as "a flying palace," while it was parked at the West Palm Beach International Airport in February. (4)
When a senior U.S. official warns that the U.S. may move forward with a Saudi deal without Israel unless it "wakes up," it reflects a policy already in motion. Trump won't let Israel undermine his economic "Deal of the Century" with the kingdom, which includes over $100 billion of military procurement and over $1 trillion Saudi investments in the United States.But we’ve also been seeing reports that the US could be taking over administration of Gaza’s population with an operation heavily reliant on US mercenaries modeled on the US-directed transitional government in Iraq. Which worked out so very brilliantly.
Trump, having realized the unfeasibility of the Gaza Riviera project and the mass transfer of two million Gazans, is back on the drawing board – and appears unlikely to settle for a limited U.S.-Arab operation to distribute humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip.
Despite objections from Netanyahu's governing coalition, Trump could very well lay down the framework for the day after the war, which would be based on the Egyptian proposal. In doing so, as with the handling of the Houthis, Iran and Syria, Trump could turn Gaza into "his war" – one in which he sets the terms and expects obedience. After all, Trump isn't about to let a subcontractor pave the way to his Nobel Peace Prize – not even if they're called Israel. (5)
Meanwhile, the IDF continues to systematically kill civilians in Gaza with the full support of Peace President Trump. Headline from Haaretz 05/12/2025:
There’s a lot of diplomatic and political fog around Trump’s visit to the oil sheikhs. Amir Tibon writes:
The Middle East is awash in rumors as the region prepares for the arrival this week of U.S. President Donald Trump – his first visit since returning to the White House. It seems like almost every hour, another sensational news report is published. Trump is going to end the war in Gaza! Trump is going to add an unexpected stop in Israel! Trump is preparing to bomb Iran! Trump plans to announce a Palestinian state! Most of these reports get refuted shortly after their publication, but not before generating hysterical push notifications from local news outlets. (6)The oil sheikhs would nominally “like to see … an agreement that ends the ongoing war in Gaza, and an agreement with Iran that will remove the threat of a new war starting in the Gulf.”
This reality is the reason why so many news outlets are reporting, sometimes with obvious exaggerations, about tensions and friction between Trump and Netanyahu. But based on the past, these reports should be treated with caution. Trump tends to change his mind, as we have known for years and were reminded recently with the tariffs he imposed, as well as with his handling of the war in Ukraine. Any statements he makes – and even more than that, any leaks made supposedly in his name – should be taken with a grain of salt.In a subsequent analysis, Tibon highlights the deal the Trump regime just made with Hamas to free the American hostage, Edan Alexander.
The more important thing to pay attention to is the undeniable rift between Israel and the Gulf states, which were not long ago considered the Jewish state's real strategic allies in the Middle East, united by enmity toward Iran and its network of terror proxies. Ahead of Trump's arrival, however, the Saudis made clear to him they aren't ready to discuss normalization with Israel, but their Foreign Minister held an urgent meeting with his Iranian counterpart to avert a crisis in the nuclear negotiations. [my emphasis]
The position [Trump] expressed – and repeated later in the statement with a call to "end this brutal conflict" – aligns with the demand of most hostages' families and the majority of the Israeli public: to prioritize the hostages' release over continuing Israel's 'Forever War' in Gaza. But this position directly contradicts the stated intentions of Benjamin Netanyahu's government, which is pushing for a new, massive ground offensive despite the obvious and urgent risk it poses to the remaining hostages. [my emphasis] (7)And, as Ahmad Tibi cautioned a few days earlier:
For years it was claimed that what characterized Israeli politics was the struggle between the "moderate center" and the "extremist margins," but the political reality of the past decade disproves this analysis. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is not marginal, he is not an exception to the Israeli consensus: He is its reflection.Will Trump 2.0 really defy Netanyahu’s government and the Israel Lobby to impose a settlement they reject in favor of the bribes showered on him by the oil sheikhs? It would be nice to think that the US government was willing put the need for a constructive US policy above those considerations. But I’m sure Trump is really looking forward to his new Qatari Flying Palace.
Religious Zionism in its current version – that of Smotrich, Simcha Rothman and Itamar Ben-Gvir – is not a "sector." It dictates the agenda, controls the main centers of power: The finance and defense ministries, the military, the Knesset committees and key positions in the security cabinet, the economy and the media. Religious Zionism, in its broad sense, shapes policy in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, influences education and delineates the boundaries of legitimacy in the political space of the Israeli Jewish public. [my emphasis] (8)
But US Ambassador to Israel and hardline Christian Zionist Mike Huckabee tells the supporters of Netanyahu not to worry:
The U.S. ambassador to Israel denied that a rift was widening between President Donald Trump and Israel or its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, following concerns that the president was sidelining the country in his Middle East policy.The Forward also reports that Huckabee recently tweeted, “@Israel doesn’t have a better friend than @POTUS!”
“He spent more time with the prime minister of Israel than he has any other world leader, so I would just say to people, ‘Relax, calm down, Donald Trump loves you, there’s no doubt about that, he’s got your back,’” Mike Huckabee told Israeli Channel 12 on Saturday night. “He is the same Donald Trump that, four years as president, did more for Israel than any other American president.” (9)
Finally, Bill Astore reminds us what the next phase of the war on Gaza Netanyahu is already beginning to carry out really is:
It’s rather amazing how the New York Times covers ethnic cleansing and genocide in Gaza. Today’s NYT features an article (in my email newsfeed) that talks about the “war” on Hamas and identifies the key issue as the hostages and their return. From this article, you’d never know Gaza has been reduced to rubble in a bombing campaign equivalent to seven Hiroshima atomic bombs. You’d never know that more than 60,000 Palestinians have been killed, but that the likely number of killed is probably twice or three times that. You’d never know the Israeli government’s plan is to kill or push out all the Palestinians in Gaza, a “final solution” to the Gaza problem. You’d never know the main victims of Israel’s “war” have been innocent women and children in Gaza. [my emphasis] (10)Notes:
(1) Ebrahim, Nadeen & Al Lawati. Abbas (2025): Trump is visiting three of the world’s richest nations. Here’s what’s on their wish list. CNN World 05/11/2025. <https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/11/middleeast/trump-visit-gulf-arab-states-saudi-uae-qatar-intl> (Accessed: 2025-11-05).
(1) Ebrahim, Nadeen & Al Lawati. Abbas (2025): Trump is visiting three of the world’s richest nations. Here’s what’s on their wish list. CNN World 05/11/2025. <https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/11/middleeast/trump-visit-gulf-arab-states-saudi-uae-qatar-intl> (Accessed: 2025-11-05).
(2) Rudaw (2025): US to establish two military bases in Kurdish-held areas of Syria: Rojava official. Rudaw.net 2025-21-04. <https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/21042025> (Accessed: 2025-11-05).
(3) Massad, Joseph (2025): Israel's aggression in Syria advances a century-long plan to co-opt the Druze. Middle East Eye 05/06/2025. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israel-aggression-syria-advances-century-long-zionist-strategy-co-opt-druze> (Accessed: 2025-11-05).
(4) Karl, Jonathan & Faulders, Katherine (2025): Trump administration poised to accept 'palace in the sky' as a gift for Trump from Qatar: Sources. ABC News 05/11/2025. <https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-administration-poised-accept-palace-sky-gift-trump/story?id=121680511> (Accessed: 2025-11-05).
(5) Bar’el, Zvi (2025): Trump Eyes 'Deal of the Century' With Saudis, Leaving Israel Little Room to Maneuver. Haaretz 09/09/2025. Gift link: <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-05-09/ty-article/.premium/to-conquer-saudi-arabia-trump-is-sidelining-israel-as-a-regional-power-broker/00000196-b530-dbb0-af9f-bfb2f2210000> (Accessed: 2025-11-05).
(6) Tibon, Amir (2025): Forget the Frantic Rumors. Here's What Really Matters Ahead of Trump's Mideast Trip. Haaretz 05/11/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/haaretz-today/2025-05-11/ty-article/.highlight/forget-the-frantic-rumors-heres-what-really-matters-ahead-of-trumps-mideast-trip/00000196-bf6e-df59-abde-ff6e1b460000?gift=36038333195743f1ab08f928e46f11f7> (Accessed: 2025-12-05).
(7) Tibon, Amir (2025): Trump Is Finally Calling to End the Gaza War. Will Netanyahu Listen? Haaretz 05/12/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-05-12/ty-article/.premium/trump-is-finally-calling-to-end-the-gaza-war-will-netanyahu-listen/00000196-c32e-d1bb-a5d6-c7fe8e710000> (Accessed: 2025-12-05).
(8) Tibi, Ahmad (2025): Smotrich Is No Longer an Exception to the Israeli Consensus. He Is Its Reflection. Haaretz 05/09/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025-05-09/ty-article-opinion/.premium/smotrich-is-no-longer-an-exception-to-the-israeli-consensus-he-is-its-reflection/00000196-b0fc-d1bb-a5d6-b6fc150f0000> (Accessed: 2025-12-05).
(9) Sales, Ben (2025): Huckabee denies rift between Netanyahu and Trump as US actions in Middle East appear to leave out Israel. Forward 05/11/2025. <https://forward.com/fast-forward/719176/huckabee-denies-rift-between-netanyahu-and-trump-as-us-actions-in-middle-east-appear-to-leave-out-israel/> (Accessed: 2025-12-05).
(10) Astore, William (2025): More “War” in Gaza. It’s not an invasion, it’s a “forceful entry”. Bracing Views 05/06/2025. <https://bracingviews.com/2025/05/07/more-war-in-gaza/> (Accessed: 2025-12-05).
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