Former general and current lobbyist Ben Hodges on the current Russia-Ukraine war negotiations

Former general and current lobbyist Ben Hodges has a been a reliable measure of pro-Ukraine hawkish sentiment.

Here he gives Deutsche Welle his view of the current situation: (1)

Lobbyist General Ben seems to be a bit discombobulated in this interview. More generously, we could say he seems to be taking a cautious stand in the face of uncertainty about just where the Russia-Ukraine negotiations might be going. From the video’s text summary:

Hodges emphasized that the U.S. has undergone a significant shift in its strategic approach to Europe, stating, “The U.S. has taken such a sudden change in our broad strategic approach to Europe.”

Hodges told DW that the shock waves of [Vice President J.D. Vance’s] speech in Munic[h] were intende[d]. “The Vice President is not going to be a foreign policy guy. The speech that he delivered was a shocking presentation, but I think it was intended to be that.”

About a possible peace deal in Ukraine Hodges said: “Ending the war in Ukraine is going to be a long process. This is it was not going to be 24 hours, it's not going to be 100 days. I think we're talking about many months.”

He said that Trump could easily change his approach to Russia: “The President wants to be respected. He could turn very quickly, when he realizes or begins to believe that the Russians are playing him, that they are, that they are never, ever going to give him the deal that he thinks he what and that. If the Russians overplay their hand, I can imagine the president turning on them very quickly.

He is asking and other European countries to finally step up: “Germany and other countries should not complain about being left out of these talks, but instead get involved in these talks.”

General Ben says that the Trump Administration is pursuing something that is “not a traditional diplomatic approach.” That may be lobbyist-speak for “it looks like a confused mess to me.” Which is a safe evaluation, I would say.

He also notes that the Russians “think they are winning right now.” Which does seem to be the case on the battlefield (by most accounts) and at the negotiating table, which at the moment looks like the US and Russia against Ukraine (without Ukraine being formally “at the table”). I think many commentators may be resisting the temptation to say the Trump Administration’s approach looks like a hopeless mess that can’t possibly bring about a stable peace agreement or armistice to end the war.

As Lobbyist Ben rightly explains, a stable ceasefire would require some kind of security guarantees, like an agreed-upon peacekeeping force. Which would be challenging enough in itself. But Gen. Ben talks about such a ceasefire as being a precondition for actual negotiations. And I think with master negotiator Donald Trump in charge, that possibility looks exceptionally dim, even already impossible. The big issues for a theoretical stable peace – Ukraine’s NATO and EU membership (or lack thereof), territorial compromises, timelines and guidelines for troop withdrawals, agreed arrangements for both Russia and Ukraine about the force levels allowed to be stationed near the borders after a longer-term settlement – would have required the US side to negotiate in a credible way over territorial concessions (temporary and permanent), an end to sanctions against Russia, and the broader nuclear arms-limitation framework with Russia.

But since the Administration is taking the position that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a dictator and the initiator of the war and is demanding Ukraine hold wartime elections to oust him while also demanding what can fairly be described as draconian reparations to be paid by Ukraine to the United States, this hardly seems like any remotely normal international negotiation for such a situation.

Gen. Ben makes a point that seems in line with what other analysts have been saying, which is that Russia faces a challenge in advancing forward with their army. In a longer-term perspective, Russia’s population advantage and its much larger armaments industry give it the definite advantage in a continuing war. But this is very much a conventional war, in which offense is normally more a challenge than defense. And both sides have been relying heavily on planting landmines, which are a major challenge for both side in achieving military advances. (Even in a model peace agreement, cleaning up the land mines would be a huge challenge, even without Ukraine being required to pay Trump’s proposed reparations to the United States.)

He also makes the observation that Trump has staked a enormous portion of his reputation on getting a Russia-Ukraine peace deal done. And if he were to become convinced that the Russians were getting the best of him in the negotiations, he might take a less conciliatory position. But in conventional negotiating terms, haven’t the Russians already gotten the best of him, with Trump having more-or-less conceded to the major demands of Russia on territory to be held and Ukraine to be excluded from NATO?

Ukraine in NATO and even Ukraine in the EU look like non-starter ideas anyway at this point. But as a negotiating strategy, why make those concessions at the very start of the process? Because it doesn’t look like the Russians are conceding anything up front. Ending a war in Afghanistan by just pulling out after 20 years of accomplishing not much of anything made sense. Treating the reshuffling of the entire security structure in Europe like an episode of a reality-TV series doesn’t.

I’ll have to give Gen. Ben credit on this one. He’s been a dogmatic hawk in his public statements on the Russia-Ukraine War in his interviews I’ve seen over the last three years. But in this one, he sounds more like an actual political and military analyst and less like a professional arms lobbyist than I’ve heard him before.

Notes:

(1) Ret Army General Hodges: A Ukraine peace deal will take months. DW News YouTube channel 01/22/2025. <https://youtu.be/hVD0jWlyP2c?si=W6ij2alSDI4P9kOo> (Accessed: 2025-22-02).