Prospects for a Russia-Ukraine Peace: (2)
Russia and Iran: (3)
On whether Benjamin Netanyahu is reliable. (Hint: No.) (4)
In the first video, which is from The Duran YouTube show, Mearsheimer stresses how difficult it will be for the Trump Administration to get “meaningful peace agreements between Israel and its various adversaries in the Middle East,” noting that “frozen conflicts” there and in Ukraine are the best that is likely to be achieved.
If we can just shut down the genocide in Gaza, that would be a huge step forward uh and uh if we can prevent a war between Iran and is Israel (plus maybe the United States), that would be a huge step forward. But I'm sad to say I don't see much chance of getting meaningful peace agreements in either one of these regions. (1:06ff).He observes, “It's going to be, I think, a Herculean task both in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe more generally yeah to avoid big trouble down the road.”
Trump may think he’s Hercules or maybe Zeus, if he knows who either of those figures are. But both those tasks are considerably more complicated that launching a missile to assassinate an Iranian general, or unilaterally cancelling the important nuclear arms-control agreement with Iran, or slapping new sanctions on it. Which were some of his more important foreign policy achievements in his last term.
That video also contains a very interesting conversation about how European allies at this point have a stake in keeping the US committed in Europe because the NATO alliance has been the center of their strategic defense arrangements. He thinks that Trump would like to “wrap up Ukraine move on to other things.“ But he says:
[I]t's quite interesting but if you think about it uh the Europeans have a vested interest in the Ukraine war not being settled. Because if it's not settled, the Americans have to stay in Europe in a big way. If it is settled, then the Americans are basically free to get out. So, perpetual war in Ukraine so perpetual war in Ukraine is in Europe's interest in a perverse way. (after 6:30)This is a good example of how looking at foreign policy with a “realist” viewpoint of the kind Mearsheimer uses can explain how countries navigating their way through complicated situations can wind up with “perverse” results. In this case, it’s not the NATO allies but Ukraine is experiencing the “perverse” outcome.
But he also explains how the major issues like the status of the Ukrainian territory captured by Russia and NATO membership are going to make it really difficult for the US (and Trump) to conclude a formal agreement with Russia that won’t make it look like a complete loss for the US and its current President.
There’s also a moment in which he seems to have a mini-epiphany about how the European allies often criticized the US over various policies during the Cold War and up through the Cheney-Bush Iraq War. But since the Obama Administration announced its “pivot to Asia” shift in foreign policy interest, dissent from the European allies has been very muted, even from France. He speculates that his has a lot to do with the fact that the Europeans are not prepared to boost their military spending to such a massive level that it could replace a US withdrawal from NATO in terms of conventional military deterrence against Russia. So they are reluctant to do things that might prod the US to exit from the current arrangement in Europe.
The second video gets more into the weeds of the issues at stake in any effort to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine War. Even before Trump took office, he was already backing off from his obviously ridiculous campaign claims: “They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours.” (5)
The third video’s discussion of Russia-Iran relations is helpful in trying to make sense out the very fluid situation in the Middle East right now.
The fourth video deals with the question of how reliable a partner Benjamin Netanyahu is for the United States. Mearsheimer has argued for years that Israel is more of a strategic liability for the US than an asset. In other words, he thinks the US with is not pursuing what a “realist” evaluation of foreign policy would recommend. And Netanyahu, of course, is a terrible partner himself on top if it.
How is Netanyahu’s deal on the ceasefire for which Trump is claiming credit going? Maybe not so well:
[T]he same Netanyahu who eventually signed the [ceasefire] agreement has been telling his domestic political allies that he has no intention of honoring and implementing it.Also, guess what: Netanyahu will blame the end of the agreement on Hamas!
After one of the extremist, messianic parties in his governing coalition quit because of the agreement, and another threatened to do so if the agreement is honored in full, Netanyahu promised both that the cease-fire he signed is only temporary and that, soon enough, he will order to renew the war – and by doing so, sacrifice the lives of about half of the living hostages currently held in Gaza.
This isn't some conspiracy theory spread by Netanyahu's opponents and critics. These are words coming directly from his own loyalists and supporters.
On Sunday, while the vast majority of Israelis were celebrating the return of three brave woman hostages – an achievement also celebrated by Trump – the Israeli pundit most affiliated with Netanyahu, Amit Segal, crashed the party. He announcing on television that he expects only 10 of the 94 hostages still in Gaza to be released before Netanyahu honors his promise to far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and renew the war. (6)
On the Ukraine front, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is starting to sound almost like he’s giving up on any idea Trump can negotiate any kind of short-term peace agreement:
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that “at least 200,000” allied troops would be needed to enforce any peace deal in Ukraine as he urged Europe to “take care of itself” as Donald Trump returns to power in the US.Two hundred thousand combat soldiers fighting in Ukraine? All from Europe?
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Zelenskyy said European leaders should not ask themselves what Trump would do next, and said that they instead needed to take collective steps to defend their continent at a time when it was under aggressive attack by Russia.
“Europe must establish itself as a strong, global player, as an indispensable player,” the Ukrainian president said. He cited the involvement of North Korean troops in Moscow’s war against Kyiv, with fighting taking place in the Kursk region of western Russia, close to Ukraine’s eastern border. (7)
I’ll make a wild guess that this won’t happen.
Notes:
(1) What to Expect with the Return of Trump - John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen. The Duran YouTube channel 01/19/2025. <https://youtu.be/pav4shgLkOo?si=TfPbV_ZVu4thsPSl> (Accessed: 2025-22-01).
(2) John Mearsheimer: There'll be No Ceasefire in Ukraine. Daniel Davis/Deep Drive YouTube channel 01/19/2025. <https://www.youtube.com/live/cKKGi9HEBC0?si=_kqFvJSJTSg8Vylf> (Accessed: 2025-22-01).
(3) John Mearsheimer: Russia & Iran a NEW Nuclear Alliance. Daniel Davis/Deep Drive YouTube channel 01/17/2025. <https://www.youtube.com/live/z7qEoNCZltY?si=vZ6VvIvZrDfZj4DD> (Accessed: 2025-22-01).
(4) Prof. John Mearsheimer: Does Netanyahu Keep His Word? Judge Napolitano-Judging Freedom YouTube channel 01/16/2025. <https://www.youtube.com/live/NG1os_PXbCs?si=6uw4QnYwuSpQWmas> (Accessed: 2025-22-01).
(5) Lederer, Edith (2024): Trump says he can end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day. Russia’s UN ambassador says he can’t. AP News 07/02/2024. <https://apnews.com/article/trump-russia-ukraine-war-un-election-a78ecb843af452b8dda1d52d137ca893> (Accessed: 2025-22-01).
(6) Tibon, Amire (2025): Netanyahu Is Lying to Trump and Preparing to Sabotage the Gaza Cease-fire Deal. Haaretz 01/20/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-01-20/ty-article/.premium/netanyahu-is-lying-to-trump-and-preparing-to-sabotage-the-gaza-cease-fire-deal/00000194-8369-dfec-a3f7-8b6fbb9a0000?gift=78e83bc9327a454aa38d37e003ec8bf5> (Accessed: 2025-22-01).
(7) Hardin, Luke (2025): Zelenskyy says Russia-Ukraine peace deal would require 200,000 allied troops. The Guardian 01/21/2025. <https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/21/zelensky-says-russia-ukraine-peace-deal-would-require-200000-allied-troops> (Accessed: 2025-21-01).
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