Levy and others are making the valid point that Trump’s intervention in pushing Netanyahu to accept the ceasefire – which as of this writing has not yet begun its implementation – as an example of how a US President (even an about-to-be one) can influence Israeli behavior when he wants to. And they make the related point that it shows how completely deferential Joe Biden has been to Netanyahu since October 7, 2023. Even to the point of backing an actual genocide by Netanyahu’s government.
I haven’t seen much discussion of whether Trump’s transition team adhered to American law in its technically unofficial diplomatic dealings with Israel.
Biden’s weakness in dealing with Netanyahu seems to be some combination of ideology (Biden calls himself a Zionist), conventional Democratic calculations about the need to be seen as “pro-Israel,” the obvious deterioration in his cognitive health, and just plain old Cold War-type arrogance. (“Let’s remember we are the United States of America. There is nothing, nothing, nothing beyond our capacity when we do it together.”) (2)
Trump will not institute any kind of peace process with any reasonable hope of resolving the Palestinian issue. Trump is too erratic to assume he’s closely following the views of any particular person, much less an actual foreign policy expert. But the views of his son-and-law and his first Administration’s lead person on Trump’s version of a Middle East peace process, Jared Kushner, may give us some indication of how Trump sees Middle East diplomacy:
Kushner was a senior foreign policy adviser under Trump’s presidency and was tasked with preparing a peace plan for the Middle East. Critics of the plan, which involved Israel striking normalisation deals with Gulf states, said it bypassed questions about the future for Palestinians.The latter two ideas would constitute “ethnic cleansing,” by the way. Even in the unlikely event that Egypt agreed to it.
His remarks at Harvard gave a hint of the kind of Middle East policy that could be pursued in the event that Trump returns to the White House, including a search for a normalisation deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
“Gaza’s waterfront property could be very valuable ... if people would focus on building up livelihoods,” Kushner told his interviewer, the faculty chair of the Middle East Initiative, Prof Tarek Masoud. Kushner also lamented “all the money” that had gone into the territory’s tunnel network and munitions instead of education and innovation.
“It’s a little bit of an unfortunate situation there, but from Israel’s perspective I would do my best to move the people out and then clean it up,” Kushner said. “But I don’t think that Israel has stated that they don’t want the people to move back there afterwards.” [my emphasis] (3)
Masoud [the interviwer] replied that there was “a lot to talk about there”.
Kushner also said he thinks Israel should move civilians from Gaza to the Negev desert in southern Israel.
He said that if he were in charge of Israel his number one priority would be getting civilians out of the southern city of Rafah, and that “with diplomacy” it could be possible to get them into Egypt. (3)
Trump in his first term recognized the Golan Heights, Syrian territory illegally occupied by Israel, as part of the State of Israel.
It’s a real possibility and likelihood that in his second term, Trump will do the same for Israel and the West Bank (4), which Netanyahu’s party and ruling coalition consider to be a legitimate part of Eretz Israel (Greater Israel).
Levy notes in the interview, “Israel still has troops across the border in sovereign Lebanese territory. is conducting strikes in Lebanon Israel has seized a part of Syria beyond the already occupied [the Golan Heights] and annexed [the] Golan Heights, is bombing in Syria.”
As John Mearsheimer points out, the Israeli army, aka, the Israeli Defense Forces, aka, the World’s Most Moral Army, is organized and staffed to fight short wars. (5) This one that began on October 7, 2023 is far and away the longest war that Israel has ever fought, even with the previous ceasefire, with a short ceasefire in November 2023, less than a week. The IDF relies heavily on draftees.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made a remarkable admission in at speech to the Atlantic Council on January 14:
Now, more than 15 months later [after Oct 7, 2023], Hamas’s military and governance capacity has been decimated, and the masterminds behind the attack have been killed. ...It's surprising that Blinken would say so clearly that the results of over 15 months of massive killings of civilians – justified with Israel’s cynical claims that civilians are “human shields” for Hamas – that we’ve just had another “war on terror” failure. Of course, recruiting “new militants” does not mean that Hamas is back to a pre-October 7 level of preparedness. And it’s international “axis of resistance” has been weakened.
We have long made the point to the Israeli Government that Hamas cannot be defeated by a military campaign alone – that without a clear alternative, a post-conflict plan and a credible political horizon for the Palestinians, Hamas, or something just as abhorrent and dangerous, will grow back.
That’s exactly what’s happened in northern Gaza since October 7th. Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and re-emerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void. Indeed, we assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost. That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war. [my emphasis] (6)
It's still a remarkable admission of failure and an affirmation (even if unintentional) that the Biden Administration’s unconditional support for Israeli’s war didn’t achieve the military goal that allegedly justified it. Including the US violating its own laws on providing weapons in such situations.
Iran has also just a new Strategic Partnership Agreement with Russia. It stops short of including a direct mutual defense commitment. But it walks up to the edge of it, and is clearly a move by Russia to discourage the US and Israel from mounting military attacks on Iran.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian deepened military ties between their countries on Friday by signing a 20-year strategic partnership that is likely to worry the West.In other words, Trump when he takes office Monday in the Capitol building he sent his supporters to storm on January 6, 2021 will be facing a far messier situation in the Middle East than he faced when he first took office eight years earlier. With the Russia-Ukraine war added to it, a situation that is not going to be easily settled in a way that bolsters his rightwing-isolationist image that he’s a tough guy who can create peace because other countries are so scared of him.
Under the agreement, Russia and Iran will boost cooperation in a range of areas including their security services, military drills, warship port visits and joint officer training.
Neither will allow their territory to be used for any action that threatens the other and will provide no help to an aggressor attacking either nation, according to the text, which also said they would work together to counter military threats. ...
Putin said work on a potential gas pipeline to carry Russian gas to Iran via Azerbaijan was progressing despite difficulties. He added that, despite delays in building new nuclear reactors for Iran, Moscow was also open to potentially taking on more nuclear [reactor] projects. (7)
Conditions in Syria since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December are not pretty from the US point of view. “Syrians of all political persuasions are wary of [the new ruling group] HTS’s origins – until 2016, it was affiliated with al-Qaeda and, before that, with ISIS. They see little of their country’s ethnic, religious and cultural mosaic reflected in the caretaker government.” (my emphasis) (8) The US has been allied with the autonomous region in northeast Syria known as Rojava, led by the at-least-democratic-leaning Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is close to the Kurdish Democratic Union Party. NATO ally Türkiye is actively hostile to the SDF.
Notes:
(1) Gaza ceasefire could end Netanyahu - Daniel Levy interview. PoliticsJOE YouTube channel 01/16/2025. <https://youtu.be/e04oF6h8lNA?si=wcU1t_n5ltVrCkKX> (Accessed: 2024-18-01).
(2) Remarks by President Biden in Address to the Nation. US Embassy Germany 07/15/2024. <https://de.usembassy.gov/remarks-by-president-biden-in-address-to-the-nation/> (Accessed: 2024-18-01).
(3) Wintour, Patrick (2024): Jared Kushner says Gaza’s ‘waterfront property could be very valuable’. The Guardian 03/19/2024. <https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/19/jared-kushner-gaza-waterfront-property-israel-negev> (Accessed: 2024-18-01).
(4) Ott, Haley (2025): Trump win fuels discussion of Israel annexing the West Bank. Here's what that means. CBS News 11/19/2024. <https://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-israel-annex-west-bank-after-trump-takes-office/> (Accessed: 2024-18-01).
(5) John Mearsheimer: Russia & Iran a NEW Nuclear Alliance. Daniel Davis/Deep Dive YouTube channel. <https://www.youtube.com/live/z7qEoNCZltY?si=2y3DSJc-HpPLPQqh> (Accessed: 2024-18-01).
(6) Secretary Antony J. Blinken: “Toward the Promise of a More Integrated Middle East” Speech. US Department of State 01/14/2025. <https://www.state.gov/office-of-the-spokesperson/releases/2025/01/secretary-antony-j-blinken-toward-the-promise-of-a-more-integrated-middle-east> (Accessed: 2024-18-01).
(7) Soldatlin, Vladimir & Osborn, Andrew (2025): Putin and Iran's president deepen defence ties with 20-year pact. Reuters 01/17/2025. <https://www.reuters.com/world/iranian-president-arrives-moscow-treaty-signing-with-putin-tass-says-2025-01-17/> (Accessed: 2024-18-01).
(8) Khalifa, Dareen & Bonsey, Noah (2025): Key Decisions Loom as Syria Enters a New Era International Crisis Group 01/14/2025 <https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/syria/key-decisions-loom-syria-enters-new-era> (Accessed: 2024-18-01).
See also: Hunt, Edward (2025): The United States Makes a Play for Rojava. Foreign Policy in Focus 01/16/2025.
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