Trump’s incoming Israel/Middle East team: they don’t look all that dovish

“This administration [Biden’s] has done less to restrain Israel than pretty much any administration, except perhaps the previous one, the Trump administration.” – Rashid Khalidi (1)

Peter Beinart has a helpful essay on what he might expect from Trump on the current Middle East wars, based on his first term in office. Beinart describes the …

... dynamic that will likely play out again in Trump’s second term: The president will criticize Israeli behavior in ways that surprise the media and rattle his allies on the pro-Israel right. But it won’t matter, because he is again surrounding himself with passionate supporters of the Jewish state. And given Trump’s ignorance, laziness, and incompetence, his pro-Israel advisers will maneuver around him to ensure that Israel enjoys a free hand. [my emphasis] (2)

He quotes John Bolton speculating “that Trump’s support for Israel in the first term is not guaranteed in the second term, because Trump’s positions are made on the basis of what’s good for Donald Trump, not on some coherent theory of national security.”

But Nasim Ahmed reminds us of the general orientation of Trump’s first-term Israel policy:

If Donald Trump and his fervent supporters are to be believed, the President-elect’s promise to revive the “America First” agenda during his second term will be anchored in the principle of “peace through strength”. In the context of Israel-Palestine, such a vision is highly likely to empower Jewish supremacy and facilitate the most extreme territorial ambitions of Israel’s far-right government. ...

In his first term, Trump employed the doctrine of peace through strength in advancing Israeli interests in several ways. In a move that was in clear defiance of international law, Trump used US power to unilaterally recognise Israel’s claim to sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights and relocated the US embassy to Jerusalem. These illegal moves reshaped the political landscape and have set the stage for what looks to be an even more assertive pro-Israel stance during Trump’s second term.

The clearest indication that the President-elect will put his administration in the service of Jewish supremacy are Trump’s recent appointments, which have sparked jubilation among Israel’s right-wing establishment, while raising eyebrows among some of his America First base. [my emphasis] (3)

Yet the lineup of staff that he’s assembling make a different expectation more likely, as Beinart observes:

Bolton is likely correct that Trump doesn’t care much about Israel. He doesn’t care much about anything except himself. But Bolton is wrong to assume that Trump’s personal preferences will determine policy in a second term. That’s because Trump operates within the contemporary Republican Party, where there are virtually no influential figures—among politicians, donors, or foreign policy experts—eager to challenge unconditional United States support for Israel. Even J.D. Vance, who is skeptical of American support for Ukraine, doesn’t apply that reticence to the Jewish state. In this environment, even a highly engaged, policy-oriented Republican president would struggle to find advisers willing to challenge Netanyahu. Trump is far too ignorant and self-absorbed for that. He instead takes the path of least resistance and surrounds himself with people deeply connected to the Jewish and Christian pro-Israel right.

In the first term, that meant [former US Ambassador to Israel David] Friedman, [Trump’s former special representative for international negotiations Jason] Greenblatt, [son-in-law] Kushner, United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. For his second, he has begun assembling even more extreme supporters of a “greater Israel” that would extend from the river to the sea: Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, UN Ambassador Elise Stefanik, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff. His nominees for secretary of state and secretary of defense, Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth, are zealously pro-Israel as well. Former Trump diplomat and extreme Iran hawk Brian Hook is running the transition team for the State Department. Even though Trump at times campaigned as a peace candidate who would end Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, this growing team clearly signals that he’s likely to help Israel make them even more brutal. [my emphasis; paragraph break added]

One good guideline for evaluating Trump’s Israel policy as he takes office is to apply the same caution to his policies as to Biden’s: occasional nice words don’t matter unless he’s willing to actually cut arms supplies to Israel.

Jacob Kornbluh writing in the conservative Forward looks at Trump’s Israel team:

His first national security picks are die-hard Israel supporters, some of whom have denied the existence of the Palestinian people and back the annexation of the occupied West Bank. These loyalists are set to advance his “America First” and hardline populist agenda in a second term. They could signal some shifts in longstanding U.S. policy, especially regarding a possible conflict with Iran and resolving conflicts in the Middle East. (4)

Pete Hegseth, Trump’s more-than-dubious nominee for Secretary of Defense, sounds like he’ll be hot to trot on war with Iran:

Hegseth called for U.S. military action against Iran back in 2020. “I don’t want boots on the ground, I don’t want occupation, I don’t want endless war,” he said on Fox News. “But Iran has been in endless war with us for 40 years. Either we put up and shut up now and stop it, or we kind of wait, go back to the table, and let them dither while they attempt to continue to develop the capabilities to do precisely what they said they want to do.” (Kornbluh) [my emphasis]

A former college roommate of Jared Kushner’s, Adam Boehler, also sounds like he thinks war with Iran would be a great idea:

Boehler’s nomination to the role, with the rank of ambassador and requiring Senate confirmation, is a positive sign for the families of Israeli hostages, including the American hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. In past writings and interviews, Boehler said U.S. negotiations to secure the release of American citizens wrongfully detained abroad should be backed by the threat of military action. Earlier this year, he said that the Abraham Accords happened because Trump took a hard stance on Iran.

“That is how real peace is achieved in the Middle East, through strength. Now is the time to get tough on Iran and their proxies, especially Hamas.” [my emphasis] (5)

And let’s not forget, war in Syria is picking up again, a conflict in which external players like Israel, Iran, Turkey, and Iraq have particular interests:

The dramatic development in Syria, where rebels have occupied Aleppo and are threatening to move on Hama, has brought pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and perhaps even a sense of panic. He was quick to convene the heads of the defense establishment for an emergency discussion Friday night on the developments in Syria.

The concern in Israel feels like deja vu. The regime of President Bashar Assad may collapse. Iran, with remnants of Hezbollah and the Russian air force, is likely to send its forces again to help prop up the Syrian regime. Just as in the Syrian civil war that erupted in 2011, Israel once again faces the dilemma of which outcome is worse: a weakened Assad regime, fortified by a massive Iranian presence, or extremist jihadi groups that may again reach the Golan border and attack Israel from there.

All this is happening with 50 days left before Trump returns to the White House having made several controversial appointments in the military-intelligence field. This includes people who are inexperienced in dealing with international crises in general and with the Middle East in particular. (6)

It’s easy to be fatalistic about US policy on Israel going inevitably from bad to worse. But that’s exactly the point of view the Israeli right prefer other nations to take. In fact, Netanyahu is obviously a reckless character who is carrying on an actual genocide in Gaza and is engaged in a Greater Israel project – Israel from the river to the sea, we might say – that can only be accomplished by war, not by peace and stability. Netanyahu also really wants to see the US go to war against Iran and carry out regime change there. There are many ways that the situation can deteriorate in a way that Trump will find himself unwilling to take the risks that Netanyahu would like to see him take.

Lara Friedman of the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) concurs on the hawkish nature of Trump’s Israel team:

After a year of devastating war in Gaza, aided and abetted by a Democratic administration unwilling to impose any red lines on the Israeli government, Trump made a cynical yet effective last-minute appeal to disaffected voters, pitching himself as the “anti-war” candidate who could secure a quick and lasting peace. Friedman, however, suggests that we should not look to Trump but to those around him — to figures like former ambassador David Friedman, Jason Greenblatt, and others who pledge to continue the unfinished work of Trump’s first term. These are the people who will be at the center of what Friedman calls a “Greater Israel” period in U.S. policy: supporting Israeli annexation and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, Gaza, and parts of Lebanon; lifting sanctions on settlers; and preventing any bans on weapons transfers. “They have lists of things that they are ready to do,” Friedman says, warning that we should take them at their word. [my emphasis] (Adler)

But, as David Cay Johnson often reminds us, Trump is also not a competent manager. And also that Trump “creates his own reality.” The situation Trump faces in the Middle East now is far, far more complicated than the one he confronted in 2017. So it’s possible that Trump may come to see the Christian Zionist approach to foreign policy is too messy and too damaging to his own self-image to go as far as Israel wants to push him. As Johnston recently put it, “the ingredient I think Americans don't understand, that Donald's very feral. [If] he feels like something will hurt him, he can turn on a dime.” (7)

Notes:

(1) Khalidi, Rashid (2024): In: O‘Connell, Mark. Israel’s Revenge: An Interview with Rashid Khalidi. New York Review of Books 12/19/2024 issue.

(2) Beinart, Peter (2024): Trump’s Israel Instincts Don’t Matter. Jewish Currents 11/26/2024. <https://jewishcurrents.org/trumps-israel-instincts-dont-matter> (Accessed: 2024-05-12).

(3) Ahmed, Nasim (2024): Trump’s ‘peace through strength’ doctrine will put the US in the service of Jewish supremacy. Middle East Monitor 11/14/2024. <https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241114-trumps-peace-through-strength-doctrine-will-put-the-us-in-the-service-of-jewish-supremacy/> (Accessed: 2024-05-12).

(4) Kornbluh, Jacob (2024): Your complete guide to Trump’s Jewish advisers and pro-Israel cabinet. Forward 11/13/2024. <https://forward.com/news/674101/trump-cabinet-israel-rubio-huckabee-jewish/> (Accessed: 2024-05-12).

(5) Melman, Yossi (2024): Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard Make Israel's Syrian Dilemma Harder Than Ever. Haaretz 12/02/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-12-02/ty-article/.premium/pete-hegseth-and-tulsi-gabbard-make-israels-syrian-dilemma-harder-than-even/00000193-8837-dc12-a7d3-ea3f83640000?gift=517341a724b9418a9db8ffb0aa58b8da> (Accessed: 2024-05-12).

(6) Adler, Jonathan (2024): Trump’s unfinished business for ‘Greater Israel’. +972 Magazine 11/13/2024. <https://www.972mag.com/trump-greater-israel-lara-friedman/> (Accessed: 2024-05-12).

(7) South Korea.Trump. There's a Tsunami of Authoritarianism Rising Around the World, David Cay Johnston. The Mark Thompson Show YouTube channel 12/04/2024.7:20 ff. <https://youtu.be/cqPILEXO-HU?si=_ABMp3EZZnSPfOGh> (Accessed: 2024-05-12).