Assad’s fall: good news? Bad news? Both?

At this early date, it’s hard to know:

Across the Middle East and beyond, the fall of Syria’s authoritarian government at the hands of jihadi militants set off waves of jubilation, trepidation and alarm.

Expatriate Syrians and many residents across the Middle East exulted at the overthrow of a leader who led his country through 14 years of civil strife that left half a million Syrians dead and displaced millions to countries around the world.

Others worried about still more instability rocking a region in turmoil. Governments — whether allies or opponents of Assad — scrambled to absorb the sudden, stunning development and assess the implications for the Middle East and the world. (1)

Everyone seems to have been taken surprise about how quickly Assad’s dictatorial government fell during the recent offensive by jihadist rebels. But it happens. Gary Sick, who worked as national security advisor for President Jimmy Carter on Iran affairs during the Iranian Revolution of 1979, recently gave an account of how surprised the Administration was at how seemingly passive the Shah was in response to the revolutionary movement.

As he puts it:

Basically, a lot of people were hurt badly by the Shah’s departure and the revolution. They lost money, property, their lands, their culture and history. You have a lot of very important people living in Los Angeles. Are they going to be happy about this? Of course not. When I speak to some of these groups, I say: “Did you stay there and fight for the Shah?” No. They all ran. (2)

Sometimes a challenge to a government just gets lucky.

Whether a new government in Syria is likely to be better or worse than Assad’s remains to be seen. Even though things there were really bad:

While the volatile geopolitical environment influenced the timing and scale of the offensive, the resurgence of the Syrian conflict was inevitable. The country remained fragmented and mired in a political deadlock, with no prospects for reconstruction and 90 percent of the population living below the poverty line. Even in territories under regime control, the government had failed to restore order, allowing instead militias and criminal gangs to operate freely. Assad had consistently refused to make even the slightest concessions, both domestically and with its neighbors, perceiving compromise as a sign of weakness. Instead of addressing the dire living conditions or engaging in a political process to end the war, he doubled down on his repressive tactics and turned Syria into the world’s largest narco-state. [my emphasis] (3)

Joe Biden, hopelessly stuck in a simplistic Cold War mentality until the end offered this assessment:

Addressing the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, U.S. President Joe Biden said the development "is a direct result of the blows that Ukraine and Israel have delivered" against Russia, Hamas and Hezbollah "with unflagging support from the United States."

"The main backers of Assad have been Iran, Hezbollah and Russia. Over the last week, their support collapsed. All three of them are far weaker today than when I took office. And let's remember why – after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, when much of the world responded with horror, Iran and its proxies decided to launch a multifront war against Israel. That was a historic mistake on Iran's part," Biden said. (4)

I won’t be surprised if before he leaves office, he announces, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”

And, yes, Trump will be worse on foreign policy. Just in a different way. He has commented on the situation already; “’Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by (President) Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer,’ Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social.” (5)

“Russia, Russia, Russia”?!

Al Jazeera has this early take: (6)

Notes:

(1) Associated Press (2024): Global reaction to Assad’s sudden ouster from Syria ranges from jubilation to alarm. AP News 12/08/2024. <https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-overthrow-world-reaction-7caf6eca9a5f3af01e0801d434076232> (Accessed: 2024-08-12).

(2) Why is Iran so Central to US Policy? An Interview with Doyen of US Iran Experts, Gary Sick (Pt. 1): Interview by Fariba Amini. Informed Comment 12/02/2024. <https://www.juancole.com/2024/12/central-interview-experts.html> (Accessed: 2024-08-12).

(3) Kassis, Kelly (2024): The Fall of the House of Assad. The National Interest 12/07/2024. <https://nationalinterest.org/feature/fall-house-assad-214015> (Accessed: 2024-08-12).

(4) Samuels, Ben/Reuters (2024): Biden: Fall of Assad regime 'direct result of Israeli blows' against Iran, Hezbollah. Haaretz 12/08/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-12-08/ty-article-live/idf-names-officer-killed-in-southern-gaza-combat/00000193-a3b2-ddde-addb-f3b64ca90000?liveBlogItemId=440194054#440194054> (Accessed: 2024-08-12).

(5) Reuters, Trump says Russia abandoned Assad. Reuters 12/08/2024. <https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-russia-abandoned-syrias-assad-never-should-have-been-involved-2024-12-08/> (Accessed: 2024-08-12).

(6) What's next for Syria after Assad? Inside Story. Al Jazeera English 12/08/2024. <https://youtu.be/o5t4AoMuBiE?si=57bR46wX3aI6tTVE> (Accessed: 2024-08-12).