The conservatives, liberals, and social-democrats in the European Parliament have made a hopeful agreement:
According to the agreement made by the centre-right European People’s party (EPP), the Socialists and the Liberals, von der Leyen will be nominated for a second five-year mandate at the head of the EU executive at a Brussels summit on Thursday.Hungary’s authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán is against it, which is a not-bad sign. Italy's far-right Prime Minister Georgia Meloni isn't entirely happy about it, either. Also a good sign.
The serving Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, would become the EU’s chief diplomat and the former Portuguese prime minister António Costa would take on the presidency of the European Council, making him responsible for chairing EU leader summits.
The deal was struck on Tuesday by six EU leaders, including France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz. Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, and his Greek counterpart, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, represented the EPP; Spain’s Pedro Sánchez joined Scholz for the Socialists, while the outgoing Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, spoke for the centrist Renew group alongside Macron. (1)
Hungary’s authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán is against it, which is a not-bad sign. Italy's far-right Prime Minister Georgia Meloni isn't entirely happy about it, either. Also a good sign.
Speaking of Meloni, Wolfgang Münchau’s Eurointelligence recently had these observations about her view of the EU:
Our own assessment is that she is difficult to describe using the conventional pro-European or Eurosceptic labels. Instead, she is closer to the position the median Italian voter probably takes on the EU: euro-agnosticism. From this viewpoint, the EU is less a good or bad thing, and more simply a fact of life.Eurointelligence adds, “If you concede at least some of what she wants, you can co-opt her.” But conceding on the far-right xenophobic position “migration,” aka, immigration is one of the worst mistakes that center-right and even center-left parties in some countries have been making. The post-2008 political history of Italy, France, and Britain all suggest that the center-right’s concessions to the anti-democracy right have been a key factor in the current crisis situation for liberal democracy in those countries.
The EU of course constrains what you can do as a national leader. But as previous experience has shown, trying to leave or weaken it when you belong to the euro area, especially if you are Italy, is easier said than done. Like the rest of us, Meloni saw Lega and Five Star’s botched attempt to lay the groundwork for an Italian euro-exit in 2019. So long as the EU exists, you might as well work within it to get what you want.
Meloni’s euro-agnosticism is, we think, a key difference between her and Marine Le Pen, a firmly convinced Eurosceptic. But it is also why we think the attempt to isolate Meloni and exclude her from the EU’s negotiating table will backfire.
Her attitude to the EU is predicated on the idea that you can achieve your policy and political priorities by working within the system. The most obvious policy priority for Meloni is migration, though economic policy is always a concern for Italy. Politically, securing more prominent positions in Brussels burnishes Meloni’s leadership credentials domestically. [my emphasis] (2)
Unfortunately, Spain’s Pedro Sánchez has some issues: “Costa has become involved in a corruption probe that triggered his resignation last year. While he has not been formally charged, his participation in the irregular deals has not been yet clarified. Costa has adamantly denied any wrongdoing.” (3)
There is more drama in store on the democracy-vs.-authoritarianism front in this “Super Election Year,” with upcoming elections in France, Austria, and non-EU member Britain.
Politico EU's John Lichfield gives a dramatic take on the French elections:
The upcoming parliamentary election in France could be the most destructive since the war — not only for France, but also for the European Union, the Atlantic alliance and what remains of the post-war liberal world order.
France’s leadership position in the EU, its seat on the U.N. Security Council and its military reach as a global power make this almost as much of a “world election” as Biden vs. Trump in November.
That’s because of who might win: the far-right National Rally, a party that is descended from the 1940-1944 collaborationist regime of Marshal Philippe Pétain, and which has ideological and financial links with Vladimir Putin. (4)
In Britain, the sad saga of the Tory (Conservative) Party continues. In an important sense, never really recovered from the Maggie Thatcher era. The far-right national Reform Party of rightwing demagogue Nigel Farage is polling very close to the Tories. The Independent is currently providing this summary of the partisan poll rankings for the July 4 election: (5)
Politico EU shows similar voting results. (6)
Esther Webber recounts the sad state of the Tories:
A succession of MRPs — mega-polls of tens of thousands of voters which project outcomes at a local level — suggest that once ultra-safe Conservative seats are suddenly in play. Some areas are seeing upswells in support for the centrist Liberal Democrats. Others, such as Aylesbury, could actually fall to Labour at the general election on July 4. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak provided a clue as to the magnitude of the coming political earthquake when, early in the campaign, he visited Henley, a deeply conservative chocolate-box town perched on the River Thames
Eyebrows were raised. Decisions over where to deploy the PM during an election campaign are indicative of where a party thinks the vote is closely fought. The outgoing Conservative MP for Henley — a seat once held by Tory giants Michael Heseltine and Boris Johnson — had a majority of 14,000 votes at the last election. The Red Wall this is not.
Sunak has since traveled to Torridge in Devon, another ultra-safe seat where the Tories won an enormous majority of almost 25,000 in 2019. Reports suggest he is even facing a battle in his own seat, Richmond, in Yorkshire, where he won by more than 27,000 votes last time. No serving prime minister has ever lost their own seat at a general election.
Such trends point to an historic collapse of the Conservative vote in rural, semi-rural and suburban seats, the like of which England has maybe never seen before in its history. [my emphasis] (7)
Notes:
(1) Rankin, Jennifer (2024): EU centrists’ deal paves way for von der Leyen to return as commission president. The Guardian 06/25/2024. <https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/25/eu-centrist-groups-pave-way-for-von-der-leyen-to-return-as-commission-president> (Accessed: 20024-25-06).
(2) Why locking out Meloni will backfire. Eurointelligence 06/19/2024. <https://www.eurointelligence.com/> (Accessed: 20024-25-06).
(3) Thomas Biebricher’s book Mitte/Rechts. Die Internationale Krise des Konservatismus covers that history is xome detail for those three countries. (2023, Berlin: Suhrkamp Verlag).
(4) Jorge Liboreiro, George at al (2024): Negotiators seal EU top jobs deal for von der Leyen, Costa and Kallas. Euronews 06/25/2024. <https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/06/25/negotiators-seal-eu-top-jobs-deal-for-costa-kallas-and-von-der-leyen> (Accessed: 20024-25-06).
(5) Lichfield, John (2024): The French election risks torpedoing the global order. Politico EU 06/25/2024. <https://www.politico.eu/article/france-election-national-rally-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-far-right-emmanuel-macron/> (Accessed: 20024-25-06).
(6) The Independent 06/25/2024. <https://www.independent.co.uk/> (No direct link). (Accessed: 20024-25-06).
(7) Webber, Esther (2024): How Britain’s Conservatives lost their heart and soul. Politico EU 06/24/2024. <https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-conservatives-lost-heart-soul-general-election-pm-rishi-sunak-starmer-labour-truss/> (Accessed: 20024-25-06).
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