The Biden Administration is advancing a new Gaza peace proposal. It’s very hard at this point to tell how serious this one is.
US President Joe Biden on Friday (31 May) laid out what he described as a three-phase Israeli proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza in return for the release of Israeli hostages, saying “it’s time for this war to end” and winning a positive initial reaction from Hamas.
The first phase involves a six-week ceasefire when Israeli forces would withdraw from “all populated areas” of Gaza, some hostages – including the elderly and women – would be freed in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, Palestinian civilians could return to their homes in Gaza and 600 trucks a day would bring humanitarian aid into the devastated enclave.
In this phase, Hamas and Israel would negotiate a permanent ceasefire that Biden said would last “as long has Hamas lives up to its commitments.” If negotiations took more than six weeks, the temporary ceasefire would extend while they continued.
In the second phase, Biden said there would be an exchange for all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza and the permanent ceasefire would begin.
The third phase would include a major reconstruction plan for Gaza and the return of the “final remains” of hostages to their families. [my emphasis] (1)
Of course, “major reconstruction” in Gaza implies that there is some kind of stable governance there. And Israel has been obstinate about offering any half-reasonable postwar plan for that.
This Australian report summarizes the news: (2)
Meanwhile:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has officially been invited to deliver an address to Congress, according to a letter obtained by The Hill.Having both parties the US Congress cheering and applauding for the Israeli Prime Minister who has been waging a brutal war against Gaza civilians that is very plausibly being criticized as genocidal and involves other clearly criminal acts – this does not sound like positioning the US as an honest broker. But then who imagines the Biden Administration is trying to look like an “honest broker”?
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Friday sent Netanyahu a formal invitation to speak during a joint meeting of Congress, and the invitation featured the signatures of all four Congressional leaders: Johnson, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
“We join the State of Israel in your struggle against terror, especially as Hamas continues to hold American and Israeli citizens captive and its leaders jeopardize regional stability,” the letter reads. “For this reason, on behalf of the bipartisan leadership of the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate, we would like to invite you to address a Joint Meeting of Congress.” [my emphasis] (3)
This really does not look very promising at first glance. Laura Rozen also gives a description of the proposal:
“But I need your help,” Biden said. “Everyone who wants peace now must raise their voices. Let the leaders know they should take this deal, work to make it real, make it lasting and forge a better future out of the tragic terror attack… It's time to begin this new stage, for the hostages to come home, for Israel to be secure, for the suffering to stop.”Maybe Mike Johnson, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) will invite Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh to invite a Joint Meeting of Congress, too? No, I don’t think so, either.
“It’s time to raise your voices to demand Hamas come to the table and agree to this deal,” he said.
While Biden urged people to press Hamas to agree to the deal, he also acknowledged that some members of the Israeli cabinet are calling for a permanent Israeli occupation of Gaza. (4)
As long as the United States is providing full military and diplomatic support for Netanyahu’s war, he has no reason to accept any concession he finds undesirable. And both the Biden Administration and the Congressional leadership of the Democratic and Republican parties are treating Netanyahu like a new Churchill by celebrating him with a rare speaking invitation to Congress – why would he think he has to make concessions to the Americans?
Gaza is not the only place Israel is fighting. And Netanyahu is not sounding all that conciliatory (why would he?):
[T]he IDF is training for a ground incursion into southern Lebanon and is raising the units' preparedness level – and anyone who's gung ho about conquering southern Lebanon has to consider the consequences.Notes:
It's not just that the home front would sustain unprecedented damage. It's impossible to ignore the burnout in the combat units, especially among the reservists, after months of war in the south and the incoming missiles and drones in the north.
Then there are the Americans. Even though the dispute over entering Rafah seems to have calmed down (and Israel indeed entered), Washington isn't hurrying to ship 3,500 smart bombs earmarked for the air force. When the IDF talks about plans to attack thousands of targets a day, it needs a vast amount of precision munitions.
When Netanyahu talks about differences of opinion with the Americans, he promises to go on fighting in full force. "If necessary, we will fight with our fingernails," he said. Comments like that make his colleagues in the war cabinet shudder, and some of them are apparently on the way to being his former colleagues. [my emphasis] (5)
(1) Biden details Gaza truce proposal, Hamas responds positively. Euractiv/Reuters 06/01/2024. <https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4697023-benjamin-netanyahu-israel-hamas-gaza-congress-mike-johnson-chuck-schumer-hakeem-jeffries-mitch-mcconnell/> (Accessed: 2024-01-06).
(2) Joe Biden unveils Israeli proposal to end war in Gaza and urges Hamas to accept plan. ABC News (Australia) 06/01/2024. <https://youtu.be/O4JCN6kDfDE?si=-EBX3BhSOwGs2Ivm> (Accessed: 2024-01-06).
(3) Schnell, Mychael (2024): Bipartisan leaders officially invite Netanyahu to address Congress. The Hill 03/31/2024. <https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4697023-benjamin-netanyahu-israel-hamas-gaza-congress-mike-johnson-chuck-schumer-hakeem-jeffries-mitch-mcconnell/> (Accessed: 2024-01-06).
(4) Rozen, Laura (2024): Biden: ‘It’s time for this war to end, and the day after to begin.’ Diplomatic 05/31/2024. <https://diplomatic.substack.com/p/biden-its-time-for-this-war-to-end> (Accessed: 2024-31-05).
(5) Harel, Amos (2024): Even When Israel's Deadly Operation in Rafah Is Over, the Question Will Remain: What Next? Haaretz 05/31/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-05-31/ty-article/.premium/even-when-israels-deadly-rafah-op-is-over-well-still-be-asking-what-next/0000018f-cb05-d801-a3ef-fb0503bd0000> (Accessed: 2024-01-06).
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