How seriously can we take Biden’s recent step on arms supplies to Israel?

Diplomacy in its nature opaque to those on the outside. And that is especially true over Israel’s current war against the civilian population in Gaza.

Bernie Sanders is insisting on actual military disengagement from illegal acts by the government of Israel in Gaza. (1)

But it is really hard to make sense of the public pronouncement, leaks, and hints from the Biden Administration:

In a highly anticipated report to Congress, the Biden administration said Friday it found “credible and reliable” Israeli assurances that it will use US weapons in accordance with international humanitarian law, allowing for the further transfer of American arms amid Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza.

However, in the strongest such statement from Biden officials, the State Department report also said it was “reasonable” to assess that Israel has used US-supplied weapons since Hamas’s October 7 attack in instances that were “inconsistent” with its international humanitarian law obligations, but that it does not have complete information to verify Israeli forces did so.

The seemingly contradictory assessment came after the State Department was asked to report to Congress, under a new National Security Memorandum (NSM) that US President Joe Biden issued in early February, on whether it finds credible Israel’s assurances that its use of American weapons does not violate US or international law. [my emphasis] (2)

Al Jazeera English, which was just banned and blocked in Israel, reports on the current situation (the first 11 minutes) (3):



Richard Haass was the chairman of the Council of Foreign Relations for 20 years, which is about as close to formal designation as a foreign policy establishment stalwart as gets, has even called for sanctions on Israel over its current Gaza war policy.

But he assesses Biden’s recent move to delay arms shipments – a decision that could be easily and quickly reversed, of course – as a kind of watershed moment in US-Israel relations:

But he assesses Biden’s recent move to delay arms shipments – a decision that could be easily and quickly reversed, of course – as a kind of watershed moment in US-Israel relations:

Haass, who served in senior positions in the two Bush administrations, and later led the Council on Foreign Relations – a think-tank specializing in foreign policy – spoke with Haaretz during a short visit to Israel this week. He met with leading political figures, experts and journalists during his trip, and came away with one worrying conclusion: Israel knows what it wants to achieve in Gaza on a tactical level, but has no clear strategy for the war.

This, he says, is one of the key factors behind Biden's decision to withhold powerful bombs from the Israeli government. "The closest parallel in the history of the relationship is the Suez crisis, in 1956, when President Eisenhower threatened sanctions on Israel." Biden has not gone that far, and his administration said on Thursday it will continue to provide Israel with other kinds of weapons. But according to Haass, it's hard to think of another example of such a public dispute with such significant consequences.

Haass says Israeli politicians and pundits are wrong to view the entire ordeal as politically motivated. Biden, he says, is paying a political price with young voters and American Muslims for his continued support of Israel, but will also pay a price with pro-Israel voters for now applying greater pressure on the Netanyahu government. "I'm not saying there's no politics involved in this, but Biden has been the greatest defender of the U.S.-Israel relationship in his administration. Some of his aides had wanted to do this a long time ago." [my emphasis] (4)

In a May 10 Substack article, Haass expands on his assessment. Given the current military actions by Netanyahu’s government in Rafah, this comment by Haass has a very grim sound: “My guess is the best chance for a long-term ceasefire and a full hostage return will come after the Israelis do whatever it is they do in Rafah.” (5)

It has become clear that the Israeli government has made pursuit of the war against Hamas a higher priority than gaining the release of the hostages, a reality underscored by the prime minister’s decision not to hold off launching the initial phase of the attack on Rafah. …

A second big story is the Biden decision to hold off sending select arms (essentially large bombs that inevitably cause damage and casualties in an area beyond the immediate target) and its readiness to hold off sending selected additional military items if Israel goes ahead with a large-scale assault on Rafah. It is, however, not an embargo as some claim. The idea that Israel is being abandoned or left to stand alone is preposterous. 99 percent of U.S. military aid (that totals close to $4 billion annually) will continue to flow. The United States and Israel cooperated closely several weeks ago in neutralizing hundreds of missiles and drones launched by Iran and would do so again if need be. The United States also just joined Israel in opposing a UN General Assembly resolution advocating Palestinian statehood, arguing such matters are best resolved through direct negotiations. I see the Biden arms decision as an example of the United States acting independently on behalf of its own interests and preferences, much as it did in air-dropping food aid and building a pier off Gaza or in abstaining on a UN resolution Israel wanted vetoed.

I know that many critics are slamming the arms decision as motivated by voters in Michigan or by campus protests. I am not going to argue politics didn’t enter it, but I truly believe the Biden administration has concluded Israel is wrong (both militarily and morally) in how it has been fighting the war and in the belief it can eliminate Hamas. The Biden administration also disagrees with Israeli policies regarding settlements and the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Most of all the president and those around him think Israel lacks a viable strategy for what would come after the war on Hamas — and without such a strategy it cannot succeed. [my emphasis]

Haass also cautions that a change in government in Israel right now would not necessarily mean a change in the war policies. “Prominent military members of the government such as Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot are critical of the prime minister but are more supportive than not of the military campaign against Hamas.”

Unfortunately, in his comments on the antiwar protests on US campuses, he takes a position similar smug MSNBC liberal position that Hillary Clinton recently took on Morning Joe (6) (reportedly Biden’s favorite news broadcast), in which he writes: “ Based on what they are saying, there is little appreciation of the relevant history and its complexities, of the many opportunities for a state of their own missed by Palestinians.”

Have Establishment liberals like Haass and Hillary never bothered to read Martin Luther King’s “Letter from Birmingham Jail”? (7) Because when it comes to things like the current antiwar protests, King was addressing people just like them.

But the assault on Rafah has begun. And if Biden intends to take more drastic actions to restrain Netanyahu on this, now would be the time:

Israel’s long-threatened invasion of Rafah has begun. Under cover of intense aerial bombardment Tuesday morning, Israeli forces moved into Gaza’s southernmost city, which has become a shelter for 1.5 million Palestinians with nowhere else to go. This is the moment they most feared, carrying the potential for a catastrophe greater than anything we’ve seen so far. Gazans counted on the world to stop this invasion, and the world let them down.

Residents of Rafah have long been in a state of panic in anticipation of this eventuality. That panic intensified Monday morning, when the Israeli army dropped leaflets from the sky ordering those living in Rafah’s eastern districts to immediately flee to the ill-equipped coastal area of Al-Mawasi.

Within hours, tens of thousands packed up what remains of their lives — many of them for the third, fourth, or fifth time since October — and headed northwest to what Israel is calling an “expanded safe zone.” But if Palestinians have learned anything from the past seven months, it is that nowhere in Gaza is ever safe from Israel’s onslaught. (8)

This is a war on civilians. They are not collateral damage, they are a direct target. The main official goal is to directly strike at Hamas fighters. But the bulk of its hundreds of thousands of victims are noncombatant men, women, and children. And despite the delay in shipment of big bombs, the Biden Administration is still supporting it, militarily and financially. We shouldn’t let the fog of diplomatic and PR talk distract us from that.

Mehdi Hasan addressed the current situation and “red lines” here (9):



Note that Biden says there he would also put limits on artillery going to Israel if they move into Rafah. Which they have done now.

Hawkish-leaning Israeli columnist Amos Harel expresses concern about Biden’s position:

This feels like one of the worst weeks we've had since the October 7 massacre. Not only because of the suspended animation of the hostage deal ... But the truly grim conclusion is that Israel is sinking ever more deeply into a strategic trap from which there appears at the moment to be no way out.

The negotiations for the release of the hostages look to be stuck, and the military move outside the city of Rafah isn't helping to extricate it. On the contrary: U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday threatened to pause the supply of weapons to Israel if the Israel Defense Forces enter the densely crowded city.

That's the week's most important event – indeed, its importance can hardly be overstated: an American president directly threatening to degrade Israel's military capabilities, which may yet be needed in the north. There, by the way, the Lebanon border continues to seethe – it's difficult to see how it can be cooled down without a cease-fire in the south – and the government refuses to promise the evacuated population when they will be able to return home. …

A temporary halt in the supply of weapons to the air force [bombs] will slightly hamper the war in Gaza, but the more serious possibility is that over time it will have a detrimental effect on the IDF's preparedness for a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. [my emphasis] (10)

“Slighty hamper” definitely isn’t good enough!

Harel also observes:

Hamas' success in surviving isn't due only to its perseverance. Netanyahu is playing into [Hamas leader] Sinwar's hands by his ongoing refusal to discuss day-after arrangements or to allow anyone even remotely connected to the Palestinian Authority a foothold in a future solution.

The fierce war that the Israeli government is waging against the PA in the West Bank is also continuing. Despite the killing in Gaza and the cuts in their salary, the PA's security units are continuing to maintain quite reasonable security coordination with Israel. But Netanyahu, bowing to pressure from the right, and contrary to the joint recommendation of security agencies (including the Shin Bet), is refusing to allow a limited, supervised entry of Palestinian

Notes:

(1) X [Twitter] 05/10/2024. <https://x.com/SenSanders/status/1789035586600292498> (Accessed: 2024-11-05).

(2) US: Israel’s assurances on weapons use ‘credible,’ but ‘reasonable’ to assess otherwise 05/11/2024. Times of Israel <https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-israels-assurances-on-weapons-use-credible-but-reasonable-to-assess-otherwise/> (Accessed: 2024-11-05).

(3) Israel’s brazen and reckless invasion of Rafah. The Listening Post-Al Jazeera English YouTube channel 05/11/2024. <https://youtu.be/7G01_tT6FOM?si=EJ4Q0Cv1M4Eai3gh> (Accessed: 2024-11-05).

(4) Tibor, Amir (2024): 'It's Definitely an Earthquake': A Top U.S. Expert on Biden, Bibi and the Arms Embargo Bombshell. Haaretz 05/09/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/haaretz-today/2024-05-09/ty-article/.highlight/definitely-an-earthquake-top-u-s-expert-on-biden-bibi-and-the-arms-embargo-bombshell/0000018f-5e38-d995-a5df-5e3f6cd50000> (Accessed: 2024-10-05).

(5) Haass, Richard (2024): After (May 10, 2024). Home & Away 05/10/2024. <https://richardhaass.substack.com/p/after-may-10-2024> (Accessed: 2024-11-05).

(6) 'Propaganda is not education': Hillary Clinton on combating misinformation in schools and online. MSNBC YouTube channel 05/09/2024. <https://youtu.be/xHjUbLFQssQ?si=IdvtMy3yt87hm6gW> (Accessed: 2024-11-05). WARNING: may be considered seriously cringe-worthy.

(7) King, Jr., Martin Luther (1963). MLK Letter from Birmingham Jail. In: The Atlantic Spring 2018, 74-78. (Accessed: 2024-11-05).

(8) Amer, Ruwaida Kamal & Mushtaha, Mahmoud (2024): ‘The scenes of the Nakba are repeating’: Rafah in panic as Israeli invasion begins. +972 Magazine 05/08/2024 (joint report with The Nation). <https://www.972mag.com/rafah-invasion-gaza-refugees/> (Accessed: 2024-11-05).

(9) Mehdi Presses President Joe Biden on His 'Red Line' for Israel's Actions. Zeteo YouTube channel 05/11/2024. <https://youtu.be/liT3HULAmrE?si=MpGm-t789y5MhhDu> (Accessed: 2024-11-05).

(10) Harel, Amos (2024): Biden's 'Doomsday Weapon' Threat to Israel Is No False Alarm. Haaretz 05/10/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-05-10/ty-article/.premium/bidens-doomsday-weapon-threat-to-israel-is-no-false-alarm/0000018f-5e5a-d9a0-a38f-fe7f46f20000> (Accessed: 2024-12-05).