Can the Biden Administration restrain Israel? On anything?

Cenk Uygur gave a good explanation on Sunday of how Biden’s diplomacy succeeded in getting Iran to restrict their retaliation against Israel for Israel’s targeted-assassination strike on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria to what was essentially a coordinated and largely symbolic drone-and-missile attack on Israel. (1)

But we have to remember what a walking disaster is Prime Minister of Israel right now. Haaretz editorialized:

Israel also has reasons to relate to the matter as closed from its own standpoint, at least at the moment, since the Iranian attack was halted and the damage in Israel was minimal. This time, unlike the failure of October 7, Israel and the army were prepared. No less important was the "group play." Israel's successful defense is the result of cooperation and coordination with its old and new allies, such as the United States, Britain, France and Jordan, as well as Saudi Arabia. (2)

It seems sensible enough to say that from a national-interest point of view, Israel should restrain from striking Iranian targets for the moment.

But that’s not the calculation that Bibi Netanyahu is making. Nor is Biden. Netanyahu has a personal interest in remaining in power in order to stay out of jail on corruption charges. And one of his long-term goals is to draw the US into a war with Iran.

It’s important that the US and UK militaries participated directly in the defense against Iran’s drone-and-missile attacks. That didn’t include direct military strikes on Iran itself. But Netanyahu is one step closer to his goal of a US-Iran war: something neither the US nor Iran wants at this moment.

So what happens if Netanyahu orders another military attack on Iranian territory? From all we’ve seen since the Gaza war began, Biden’s immediate response will be to pledge “ironclad” support for Israel in whatever they do. Unless Biden is willing to cut off military aid to Israel, it’s hard to see why Netanyahu would suddenly give up on starting a US-Iran war. Why would he? So far, Biden’s overwhelming message is that his Administration has no “red line” that Israel could violate which would lead Biden to cut off military aid.

So why would Netanyahu show any restraint in deference to the Americans?

The extremist members of the cabinet, particularly Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, are demanding that Israel attack on its own in response to the Iranian assault. That's no surprise. They are looking for a fight and want to entangle Israel without understanding the significance of the matter. Attacking Iran without the support of Israel's allies, particularly the United States, would be irresponsible and reckless. Israel is liable to pull the region and even the world into all-out war. That's why U.S. President Joe Biden has been applying heavy pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from attacking Iran. [my emphasis]

But until Biden cuts off military aid to Israel, why would Netanyahu or any other Israeli official think they have to take calls for restraint from Washington seriously?

Deutsche Welle has this report (3):

Dahlia Scheindlin warns:

It's tempting to assume the situation can now de-escalate. Iran pointedly calibrated its response to avoid major, escalatory damage within Israel. Israel, too, is setting the stage for a game of "hold me back" – talking tough about a response, while the U.S. administration pressures Israel to stand down. In the hierarchical ladder of responses, hopefully Israel will select the lowest rung (none would be good, too).

But Moav Vardi, chief foreign correspondent at Israel's public broadcaster Kan, carried a chilling warning: "There is no isolated event." On Kan's morning radio show, he emphasized just how cautious Israel will have to be, lest its response trigger a broader regional war that Israel can't handle, and that America will not support.

It is astonishing to think that the Israeli government still – still! – presumed that Iran would follow its historic precedents of a milquetoast response to the assassination in Syria. How many more disastrous miscalculations can the government possibly make? (4) [my emphasis]

Branko Marcetic shows that even on providing humanitarian aid to people in Gaza, Netanyahu is still flipping the Biden Administration off:

According to Israel’s N12 channel, nearly a week [after Netanyahu had made specific commitment to the US on aid], neither the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the authority in charge of coordinating humanitarian aid, nor officials at the Ashdod port had gotten orders from Netanyahu’s office to do any such thing. In fact, the report stated, Netanyahu seemingly went out of his way to thumb his nose at Biden yet again, appointing three officials opposed to opening the port to the team in charge of humanitarian decision making.

And despite the tough talk from US officials — “if we don’t see changes on their side, there will have to be changes on our side” — in reality, according to the N12 report, US officials simply meekly reminded Israeli officials about Biden’s demand before dispatching the US ambassador to Netanyahu’s office, where he “ran around the rooms” trying to find out how the Israeli government was making his promise to Biden a reality.

For the umpteenth time over the course of this war, in other words, the United States was yet again reduced to acting like a second-rate power, asking its own client state to follow through on its demands, only to be ignored — and simply swallowing the disrespect. (5) [my emphasis]

Notes:

(1) Are We at War with Iran? TYT YouTube channel 04/15/2024. <https://www.youtube.com/live/Yy98Y3990hA?si=eEi_rDz_hGWcB9_V> (Accessed: 2024-15-04).

(2) Editorial (2024): After Months of Alienation, Israel Will Only Win by Listening to Its Allies. Haaretz 04/15/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2024-04-15/ty-article-opinion/.premium/israel-will-only-win-this-war-by-listening-to-its-allies/0000018e-de26-da1d-abdf-ffaf39730000> (Accessed: 2024-15-04).

(3) US urges caution as Israel weighs response to Iran. DW News YouTube channel 04/15/2024. <https://youtu.be/0vEl_N37G4c?si=_txpDpXSkejusfD6> (Accessed: 2024-15-04).

(4) Scheindlin, Dahlia (2024):Iran and Israel Are Still One Miscalculation Away From War. Haaretz 04/15/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/haaretz-today/2024-04-14/ty-article/.highlight/iran-and-israel-are-still-one-miscalculation-away-from-war/0000018e-dd89-d7e5-a1fe-ffc9a7e40000> (Accessed: 2024-15-04).