But it appears that the Administration is about to give Bibi Netanyahu’s government even more of the widening war it wants, involving US forces directly, and increasing the risks of a war with Iran:
U.S. retaliatory attacks against Iran-backed militants will be a “campaign” that could last “weeks,” officials told NBC News. The targets are expected to include Iranian targets outside Iran, and the campaign will involve both strikes and cyber operations. Tehran has warned it would respond decisively to any attack on its territory or interests after President Joe Biden said he had decided how to retaliate for the drone strike on a base in Jordan that killed three American service members. (1)I try to look for hopeful possibilities in situations like this. Right now, the most hopeful sign I see is that rejection of Israel’s Gaza war among grassroots Democrats is strong enough and visible enough that Biden recognizes it’s a real political problem for him. But I don’t assume that a second Trump Presidency would have a more responsible policy. Trump thinks in transactions, not about “responsibility” or “policy.” As David Rothkopf recently put it:
If only Donald Trump were president. If only Trump were president, there would be no war in the Middle East, right? If only Trump were president, no American soldiers would be at risk in the region. If only Trump were president, Iran would be defanged. If only Trump were president, Israeli leaders would fall in line thanks to his leadership, charisma, fluency in Hebrew and his ability to fly like an eagle.In theory and official rhetoric, the US still insists on progress toward the long-discussed “two-state solution.” But Netanyahu has stated publicly during this war that his goal is one state, Israel, which officially considers itself a Jewish state, that would control the land “from the river to the sea.” So if the US is serious about some other kind of outcome, it will have to put major pressure on Netanyahu’s government, including imposing serious cuts on military aid.
Every statement above is equally 'true.' (2)
The Times of Israel reports: “US President Joe Biden’s administration is homing in on a new doctrine involving an unprecedented push to immediately advance the creation of a demilitarized but viable Palestinian state, The New York Times’ Thomas Friedman reported on Thursday.” (3) The idea that an independent Palestinian state without an army or the “right to defend itself” that Israel routinely repeats in justifying any and all military actions it takes, is pretty obviously realistic. So much so, that one has to wonder how serious the Administration is about any kind of independent Palestinian state at all.
And Israel seems to have made a two-state solution pretty much impossible. The only real choice seems to be at this point is one between a Greater Israel “from the river to the sea” that is an undemocratic, apartheid state or one that is a democratic and secular state. News like this isn’t good news for the Biden Administration’s official position:
Israeli soldiers have begun in recent weeks to set fire to homes in the Gaza Strip, following direct orders from their commanders, without the necessary legal permission to do so, according to information obtained by Haaretz. Soldiers have destroyed several hundred buildings using this method over the past month. After the structure is set on fire along with everything inside it, it is allowed to burn out until it is rendered useless. (4)Because the settler movement is aggressive and is upping the intensity of their demands since the current war began: Israeli Cabinet Members Join Event Calling for Ethnic Cleansing & Resettlement of Gaza (5):
The journalist interviewed in that segment is Oren Ziv of +972 Magazine, a good English-language resource on news out of Israel. Ziv reported on the settler movement in the West Bank prior to the October 7 attack.
There are almost no Palestinians remaining in a vast area stretching east from Ramallah to the outskirts of Jericho. Most of the communities who lived in the area — which covers around 150,000 dunams, or 150 square kilometers, of the occupied West Bank — have fled for their lives in recent months as a result of intensifying Israeli settler violence and land seizures, backed by the Israeli army and state institutions. The near-total emptying of the region’s Palestinian population shows how Israel’s slow but gradual process of ethnic cleansing is continuing apace, effectively annexing large swathes of the occupied territory for exclusive Jewish settlement. (6) [my emphasis]This is a report from over a week ago about the settler movement’s ambitious agenda for Gaza (7):
Also from DW News (8):
Notes:
(1) Israel-Hamas war: U.S. readies weeks of retaliatory strikes against Iran-linked targets. NBC News 02/01/2024.
(2) Rothkopf, David (2024): What if Trump Was Leading America's Policy on Israel and Gaza? Haaretz 02/01/2024.
(3) Berman, Lazar (2024): Biden said set to make push for demilitarized Palestinian state as part of new doctrine. Times of Israel 02/01/2024.
(4) Harel, Amos (2024): Netanyahu's Current Coalition Won't Survive a Hostage Deal With Hamas. Haaretz 01/31/2024.
(5) Democracy Now! YouTube channel 01/31/2024. (Accessed: 2024-01-02).
(6) ‘It’s like 1948’: Israel cleanses vast West Bank region of nearly all Palestinians. +972 Magazine 08/31/2023.
(7) The Israelis who campaign to occupy Gaza. DW News YouTube channel 01/22/2024. (Accessed: 2024-01-02).
(8) How Israel's ultra-nationalist settler movement feels reinvigorated by the country's crisis. DW News YouTube channel 01/31/2024. (Accessed: 2024-01-02).
Also available at: https://brucemillerca.substack.com/p/two-state-solution-a-negotiated-permanent
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