The spreading Middle East conflict and the dangers of great-power arrogance for the US

Toby Matthiesen provided a helpful survey earlier this month of the role Palestine plays in international Islamic politics. It also provides a useful reminder of how spectacularly misguided the Cheney-Bush Administration invasion of Iraq was.

As many have observed, these flash points show the growing reach of the so-called axis of resistance, the loose group of Iranian-backed militias that is attacking Israeli and U.S. interests across the Middle East. Less noted, however, has been the extent to which this broader conflict has blurred the sectarian divisions that have often shaped the region. After all, the vicious civil wars in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen have all had a Shiite-Sunni component; for years, Iran and Saudi Arabia have invoked sectarian loyalties in their long-running contest for regional dominance. Yet the war in Gaza has defied this tension: Palestinians are overwhelmingly Sunni Muslims, and Hamas emerged out of the Muslim Brotherhood, the most important Sunni Islamist movement, with roots in Egypt. How is it that Hamas has found some of its strongest allies in Shiite-led groups and regimes in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen? (1) [my emphasis]

As Shrub Bush’s Middle East adventures showed, bumbling arrogance is a risky way to make foreign policy. Mike Shuster reported in 2007:

U.S. policy is further complicated by the close relationship between the Bush administration and Israel, and lack of progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Despite the pre-invasion claims of some in the Bush administration, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein has proved of no benefit to that issue.

Says [Ray] Takeyh, "I think the dream that the newly elected Iraqi government was going to reconcile with Israel is another anticipation that has vanished."

The sectarian divide in the region only deepened when war broke out last summer between Israel and Hezbollah, the Shiite militia in Lebanon. The Bush administration's reluctance to negotiate a quick end to the fighting didn't help nor did comments made at the time by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

"I have no interest in diplomacy for the sake of returning Lebanon and Israel to the status quo ante," Rice said two weeks into the war. "I think it would be a mistake. What we're seeing here is, in a sense, the birth pangs of a new Middle East. And whatever we do, we have to be certain we're pushing forward to the new Middle East, not going back to the old one." (2) [my emphasis]

As Matthiesen observes, “even when sectarian tensions have flared elsewhere, the plight of the Palestinians has long provided a common rallying point across the Muslim world.“ And further: “for nearly a century, support for the Palestinians has been something on which Sunni and Shiite Muslims around the world have largely agreed.”

And the Biden Administration’s continuing support for Netanyahu’s current war, for all practical purposes seemingly unconditional support so far, is already pulling the US into a wider war. George W. Bush couldn’t tell the difference between Sunnis and Shia. Now, Joe Biden seems to be unable to tell the difference in Bibi Netanyahu between an important ally and a malicious, authoritarian loose cannon whose political goals are neither peaceful nor democratic.

As Matthiesen puts it:

Now, after nearly four months of catastrophic war, Israel’s assault on Gaza has awakened a pan-Islamic front encompassing Sunni Arab publics, who overwhelmingly oppose Arab normalization, and the militant Shiite groups that constitute the core of Iran’s resistance forces. For the United States and its partners, this development poses a strategic challenge that goes far beyond countering Iraqi militias and the Houthis with targeted strikes. By bringing together a long-divided region, the war in Gaza threatens to further undermine U.S. influence and, in the long run, could make numerous U.S. military missions untenable. This new unity also raises significant obstacles to any U.S.-led efforts to impose a top-down peace deal that excludes Palestinian Islamists. [my emphasis]

There is a lot of chatter these days about Biden’s cognitive competence or lack thereof. How anyone can imagine the Orange Clown he will be facing in the Presidential election is better than Biden in that regard is a mystery.

But Biden really does seem to be stuck in 1970s political assumptions when it comes to Israel, assuming that his best move politically will always be to back Israel’s government in any military conflict in which they engage, no matter how badly the Israeli government behaves.

And the bad ideas keep on coming from Netanyahu’s far-right government:

The head of the Israel Defense Forces Central Command signed an order on Tuesday that will allow an unauthorized outpost in the West Bank to become a large urban settlement. If the order is implemented, the Mitzpeh Yehuda outpost, near Ma'aleh Adumim, will become a city named Mishmar Yehuda.

The order follows a cabinet decision taken last year to authorize 10 West Bank outposts. It allocates 417 dunams (104 acres) of land the settlement, compared with the 50 dunams it now occupies, with a small number of structures and inhabitants. The Gush Etzion Regional Council's master plan shows the aim is to turn it into a city. (3)

These settlements, of course, are illegal under international law. And a prescription of continuing conflict and apartheid repression of Palestinians in what Netanyahu may or may not have called “from the river to the sea.” Or maybe it was “the entire territory west of the Jordan River,” which ends at the Mediterranean sea.(4)

Notes:

(1) Matthiesen, Toby (2024): How Gaza Reunited the Middle East. Foreign Affairs 02/09/2024. <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/how-gaza-reunited-middle-east> (Accessed: 2024-29-02).

(2) Shuster, Mike (2007): Shia-Sunni Conflict Forces U.S. Shift in Iraq. NPR 02/16/2007. <https://www.npr.org/2007/02/16/7439998/shia-sunni-conflict-forces-u-s-shift-in-iraq>  (Accessed: 2024-29-02).

(3) Shezaf, Hagar (2024): Israeli Military Signs Order That Could Turn West Bank Outpost Into Major Urban Settlement. Haaretz 02/28/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-01-21/ty-article/israel-based-news-outlet-incorrectly-translates-pms-words-leading-to-media-firestorm/0000018d-2bfa-daf5-a1bf-affa764b0000> (Accessed: 2024-29-02).

(4) Klee, Miles (2024): Netanyahu Says ‘From the River to the Sea,’ a Phrase Zionists Claim is Genocidal. Rolling Stone 01/18/2024. <https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/netanyahu-from-river-sea-israel-control-1234949408/>  (Accessed: 2024-29-02). The article includes an embed of this video clip, which provides the original Hebrew audio: Netanyahu: 'In the future, Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea.' Middle East Eye YouTube channel 01/18/2024.

   

Rachel Fink in Haaretz insists the translations should be, "the State of Israel must have security control over the entire territory west of the Jordan River." But as a glance at the map will show, it's a distinction without a difference, though "from river to the sea" would be a more awkward phrase for Netanyahu's PR position that the latter version is genocidal and antisemitic. From the River to the Sea: Israel-based News Outlet Incorrectly Translates Netanyahu's Words, Leading to Media Firestorm 01/21/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-01-21/ty-article/israel-based-news-outlet-incorrectly-translates-pms-words-leading-to-media-firestorm/0000018d-2bfa-daf5-a1bf-affa764b0000> (Accessed: 2024-29-02).