Friday, December 23, 2022

Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks to Congress

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the US Congress in person on Wednesday the 25th. This is the video from The Independent:



CNN provides a full transcript of the speech.

My general impression was that it was a strong presentation, illustrating once again how a background in film acting can be very practical for a politician. He made a strong case for US support in the current war without resorting to bombast or histrionics, both of which would have been understandable in the situation.

He also gives European countries credit for supporting Ukraine: “Europeans gained this victory, and that’s why Europe is now stronger and more independent than ever. The Russian tyranny has lost control over us.”

Zelenskyy’s invocation of the Second World War included a reference to Hitler:
The Russians’ tactic is primitive. They burn down and destroy everything they see. They sent thugs to the front lines, they sent convicts to the war. They threw everything against us, similar to the other tyranny, which is in the Battle of the Bulge.

Threw everything it had against the free world, just like the brave American soldiers, which held their lines and fought back Hitler’s forces during the Christmas of 1944, brave Ukrainian soldiers are doing the same to Putin’s forces this Christmas.
Most Americans will recognize what the Battle of the Bulge was. I’m not so sure about his reference to the Battle of Saratoga in the speech. But a more familiar battle reference, like Gettysburg or Sherman’s March to the Sea would probably have upset most of the Republicans.

Zelenskyy’s speechwriters know, of course, that since 1945 the United States has fought wars only against “Hitler.” It’s a habit that continually leads to threat inflation. Osama bin Laden was Hitler, Saddam Hussein was Hitler, etc. So they knew a Hitler reference was mandatory.

Europe and the Russia-Ukraine War

Europe, the EU countries, are more independent from Russia, as Zelenskyy said, now that they are drastically reducing their dependence on Russia oil and gas. But those supplies haven’t been completely cut off. Hungary and Slovakia obtained an exemption from the EU oil embargo as their condition for approving the EU sanctions.

And in the short term - this winter and next - Europe is now more dependent on the US than before. The US policy since the Clinton Administration has supported the expansion of the EU in no small part because the US prefers to see a broad but relatively loosely united EU. US policy views the EU as a potential “peer competitor” and takes a dim view of the notion of the EU exercising a united foreign policy and also of the idea of an EU army. (Russia prefers to weaken the existing EU for its own reasons.)

The US prefers to have NATO as the dominant military alliance in western Europe. Although the Trumpistas tend to be hostile to the idea of both NATO and the EU. Another Trump Presidency would be a powerful incentive for the EU to become more independent of the US. But it would probably also mean increased cooperation between the EU and China in seeking to balance against the US and Russia.

Democracy vs. Autocracy?









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