Saturday, December 17, 2022

Hungary's Foreign Minister on Europe and the Russia-Ukraine War

If you want to get an idea of what Russia’s preferred propaganda message for the EU nations on the Russia-Ukraine War is at this point, this English-language Aljazeera interview with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto is probably very close: Hungary’s Szijjarto: Winter in Ukraine will be a 'huge tragedy' 12/17/2022



The Aljazeera reporter here is remarkably lazy in his questions.

Despite the ideological affinity between Hungarian President Viktor Orbán and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Hungary has not endorsed or specifically defended the invasion of Ukraine. (Orbán is also a current idol of the American Trumpistas and the European far right.)

Hungary is a member of the EU and NATO, so even an authoritarian leader like Orbán isn’t ready to risk the quarrel with his European and American allies overt support of Russia’s war would bring. Nor, presumably, the blowback he would get from the Hungarian public.

Hungary shares a border with Ukraine. So a formal or de facto takeover of all Ukraine by Russia would be problematic for Hungary. (Despite the rhetorical hype around the war, Russia has not officially declared a takeover of all Ukraine as a war goal.)

But Hungary currently faces financial sanctions for its drastic departures from the EU baseline for democracy and the rule of law. In retaliation, Hungary is threatening to delay the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO unless the EU drops the financial threat. Hungary also demanded exceptions for itself to the EU boycott of Russian oil and gas supplies over the war in order to vote in favor of the sanctions.

In the EU’s complex and often opaque decision-making process, many of the most important decisions require a unanimous vote of all 27 members. Though the EU is also rather remarkably good at muddling through difficulties, including the unanimity rule. Historian Herfried Münkler recently noted that the EU “which is a circle of circles or an ellipse of ellipses,” only functions in foreign policy when key actors like Germany, France, Spain, Poland and Italy are serious about moving in a particular direction. (Von Putin bis Erdoğan: Wie pazifiziert man die Revisionisten? Blätter 1:2023: Accessed: 2022-17-12. , my translation.)

In the interview, Szijjarto stresses the hardships being inflicted on the Ukrainians and combines it to xenophobic complaining about the burden on EU countries, grossly exaggerated the very limited role Hungary itself is playing in handling Ukrainian refugees. He talks abstractly about the need for peace negotiations and complains about the energy hardships being inflicted on the EU by the sanctions.

This is why it’s helpful sometimes to hear straight propaganda posturing from the Other Side. The refugee situation is indeed drastic, Ukrainians are suffering terribly in the war, and the EU is bearing a disproportionate economic burden of the war compared to the US.

But that’s also why interviewers need to come prepared for this kind of interview. Aljazeera’s reporter doesn’t challenge what Szijjarto says about Hungary’s role in the handling of refugees (not only bad and damaging to the EU but outright criminal in its “pushbacks”) and doesn’t press him on what he might want to see Ukraine propose to kickstart peace negotiations.

He also doesn’t press him about what plans Orbán’s government has to get off the fossil fuel habit which makes it seriously dependent on Russia. (Basic answer would be some version of “none”.)

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