A Cassandra warning on the world after the Russia-Ukraine war

Über-Realist Stephen Walt must often feel a lot like the legendary Greek prophetess Cassandra, who was had the burden that no one would believe her accurate prophecies. She was particularly distressed about this at the fall of Troy:

But sometimes it's worth paying attention to Cassandras. Especially ones with a good track record.

Walt has some advice for policymakers after Russia eventually loses the Ukrainian war, whatever that loss may wind up looking like. In Russia’s Defeat Would Be America’s Problem Foreign Policy 09/27/2022., he reminds us, "[T]he last time the United States won a great geostrategic victory — the peaceful collapse of the Soviet empire — it succumbed to the kind of hubris that Pericles warned against, and it squandered the opportunity to build a more lasting and peaceful world."

So he has the following suggestions:

Lesson No. 1 is that threatening what a great power believes to be a vital interest is dangerous, even if one’s own intentions are noble or benign.

Lesson No. 2 is the danger of inflating threats.

Lesson No. 3 (which Putin seems to have ignored) is simple: If you invade a foreign country, don’t expect a friendly welcome.

Lesson No. 4 (also apparently discounted by Putin) is that outright aggression alarms other countries and leads them to take steps to counter it.

Threat inflation has been a chronic problem for American foreign policy since the Second World War. But any time would be a good time to kick the habit. He closes the piece with this observation:

[S]hould Ukraine (and the West) win, they will face the same foreign policy to-do list that existed before Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border: 1) averting catastrophic climate change and dealing with the severe consequences that are already apparent; 2) balancing and engaging China; 3) keeping Iran from getting the bomb; 4) managing a sputtering global economy; and 5) preparing the world for the next pandemic. Achieving these vital goals will require setting clear priorities and avoiding quixotic crusades. No one will be able to stop the Ukraine hawks from taking a victory lap, but it is essential to keep them from leading the West to repeat its past mistakes.

It's worth noting that one of the leading post-WWII "realist" theorists was a Protestant theologian, Reinhold Niebuhr. He elaborated his version in his 1952 book, The Irony of American History. His view of human nature as flawed, or fallen in theological terms, led him to take particular note of the role that arrogance and hubris play in human affairs. Including in foreign policy.