Realist-minded observers trying to sort through the Russia-Ukraine war

There is an academic-sponsored website called Russia Matters, which describes itself this way: "Russia Matters is a project launched in 2016 by Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and made possible with support from Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Stanton Foundation."

The fact that they publish Über-Realist Stephen Walt is a good sign, e.g., Does Anyone Still Understand the 'Security Dilemma'? 07/26/2022. He explains how the International Relations (IR) theory of the security dilemma is important to understand current discussions and polemics over the Russia-Ukraine war:

Consider this recent propaganda video tweeted out from NATO headquarters, responding to assorted Russian "myths" about the alliance. The video points out that NATO is a purely defensive alliance and says it harbors no aggressive designs against Russia. These assurances might be factually correct, but the security dilemma explains why Russia isn't likely to take them at face value and might have valid reasons to regard NATO's eastward expansion as threatening.

Adding new members to NATO may have made some of these states more secure (which is why they wanted to join), but it should be obvious why Russia might not see it this way and that it might do various objectionable things in response (like seizing Crimea or invading Ukraine). NATO officials might regard Russia's fears as fanciful or as "myths," but that hardly means that they are completely absurd or that Russians don't genuinely believe them. Remarkably, plenty of smart, well-educated Westerners — including some prominent former diplomats — cannot seem to grasp that their benevolent intentions are not transparently obvious to others. [my emphasis]

My guess is that his reference to "some prominent former diplomats" includes Michael McFaul, who was Obama's US Ambassador to Russia 2012-2014. McFaul is well-informed. But on Twitter, he often comes off like a New Cold War troll taking jabs at any kind of critical commentary on US policy toward Ukraine.

Walt's colleague and sometime collaborator John Mearsheimer (who also counts as an Über-Realist in IR theory) seems to enjoy being provocative on the matter of Russia and Ukraine more so than Walt. Here are three videos of Mearsheimer talking about that set of issues, including one featuring both Walt and McFaul.

Munk Debate: Russia-Ukraine War | Stephen Walt, John Mearsheimer v Michael McFaul, Radosław Sikorski 05/13/2022:

The causes and consequences of the Ukraine war-A lecture by John J. Mearsheimer Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies 06/16/2022. (This one is not available for embedding but can be viewed at YouTube.)

Here (Wrecking Ukraine: The cost of Winning the War with Geopolitics Expert John Mearsheimer) he's being interviewed by Jasmin Kosubek, who was formerly with the German RT channel, which has now been banned in Germany as a Russian disinformation outlet. She talks about her departure from RT last year here. In this interview, Mearsheimer expresses his assumption that getting relations with Russia back to a much less confrontive posture like during the 1990s will take decades.

Al Franken in this July 31 podcast talks to Julia Ioffe about the Russia-Ukraine War, Russia-Born Journalist Julia Ioffe Gives an Update on Ukraine (which does include some not-appropriate-for-the-office words):

Al seems a little taken aback by how emphatic Julia is about not seeing the Putin regime as a bunch of masterful operators as the New Cold Warriors prefer to portray them. "The evil we see coming out of the Kremlin is often mitigated by incompetence and stupidity." (10:30) She continues, "What they are doing is really bad s**t. But they often trip over themselves."

I don't share her position that the US should be "the world's policeman." But she's taking a complex and fact-based view. She not just using Twitter talking points. I do think she makes an important point that negotiating an end to the war will have to wait until one way or the other, both Russia and Ukraine are tired of fighting. Or, to put it another way, until both sides decide the cost of continuing the fight is greater than the benefits to be expected.