The Lithuanian front in the Russia-Ukraine war

This is the kind of small escalations over which we all should be alert: Daniel Boffey, Russia threatens retaliation as Lithuania bans goods transit to Kaliningrad Guardian 06/20/2022:

Russia has provoked concern in Brussels after threatening to retaliate over Lithuania’s ban on the transit of some goods across its territory to Russian Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad.

The move by the government in Vilnius was described as “unprecedented” in Moscow, where the Russian foreign office said they reserved the right to respond to protect their national interest.

The comments set off alarm bells in Brussels, where the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said Lithuania was simply enforcing the bloc’s sanctions regime. He added, however, that he was concerned by the risk of retaliation and that he would check that all the rules were being followed, while accusing the Kremlin of peddling propaganda.

Kaliningrad is part of Russia, which is not contiguous with the rest of the Russian Federation's territory. They have a land connection to the rest of Russia through an agreed-upon transit route with Lithuania. From a non-diplomat's perspective, sanctions against trading with Russia with specific goods or transactions doesn't obviously mean that you block Russian vehicles transporting goods from one part of Russia to another.

This is a portion of the Guardian's graphic showing the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.

The specialists will need to decipher what statements like this mean in Diplomat-speak:

Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, further escalated tensions on Monday by threatening a response to what he said was an “illegal move”. He said: “This decision is really unprecedented. It’s a violation of everything. We consider this illegal. The situation is more than serious … We need a serious in-depth analysis in order to work out our response.”

This is the kind of thing that can escalate quickly. Legislators and heads of government in NATO countries need to be asking serious questions about this in public. An obvious one: why is Lithuania (apparently) first making public nearly four months into the Ukraine war that the sanctions applied to established transit routes through Lithuania to Kaliningrad? The particular EU sanctions Lithuania is using for justification first took effect last Saturday, June 18.

The world's longest continually-publishing newspaper, the Wiener Zeitung, adds these data points (Russland eskaliert Spannungen um Kaliningrad 22.06.2022; my translation to English, my emphasis):

Litauen verbietet unter Verweis auf am Samstag in Kraft getretene EU-Sanktionen den Transitverkehr von Gütern wie Baumaterialien, Metalle und Kohle in die russische Exklave. Die Einschränklungen [sic] betreffen rund 50 Prozent aller Transitgüter. Von dem Verbot betroffen ist auch die einzige Zugstrecke zwischen Russland und Kaliningrad. Litauen weist den Vorwurf Moskaus zurück, mit dem Transitverbot neue Sanktionen gegen Russland verhängt zu haben.

Das frühere ostpreußische Königsberg liegt an der Ostsee zwischen den EU- und Nato-Staaten Litauen und Polen. Dort wird ein Teil des russischen Atomwaffenarsenals gelagert.

Die EU kritisiert die russischen Anschuldigungen als "falsch" und als "reine Propaganda". In den baltischen Staaten ist jetzt die Angst vor einer russischen Invasion groß. Hier erinnert man sich an das Jahr 1940, als die Sowjetunion im Zuge des Hitler-Stalin-Pakts das Baltikum okkupierte. Der deutsche Kanzler Olaf Scholz hat Litauen jedenfalls militärische Unterstützung zugesichert. Berlin habe neben mehr Soldaten auch Marine- und Luftwaffeneinsätze in Ostseeraum verstärkt und halte nun eine Brigade bereit, die im Krisenfall unverzüglich mit Kräften aus Deutschland verstärkt werde. Die deutsche Bundeswehr führt die von der Nato nach Litauen entsandte Kampftruppe an und stellt außerdem einen Großteil des Kontingents.

[Lithuania is banning the transit of goods such as building materials, metals and coal to the Russian exclave, citing EU sanctions that came into force on Saturday. The restrictions affect around 50 percent of all goods in transit. The only train route between Russia and Kaliningrad is also affected by the ban. Lithuania rejects Moscow's accusation that it has imposed new sanctions on Russia with the transit ban. {They came into effect less than a week ago but they are not "new"?}

The former East Prussian Königsberg is located on the Baltic Sea between the EU and NATO states Lithuania and Poland. Part of Russia's nuclear arsenal is stored there.

The EU criticises the Russian accusations as "false" and as "pure propaganda". In the Baltic states, there is now a great fear of a Russian invasion. Here one remembers the year 1940, when the Soviet Union occupied the Baltic States in the course of the Hitler-Stalin Pact. In any case, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has pledged military support to Lithuania. In addition to more soldiers, Berlin has also stepped up naval and air force operations in the Baltic Sea region and now has a brigade ready, which will be immediately reinforced with forces from Germany in the event of a crisis. The German Bundeswehr leads the NATO-sent combat force to Lithuania and also provides a large part of the contingent.

Great. Germany and Russia gearing up for a possible direct conflict over the Baltic states? This is really not a good place for NATO, Europe, and Russia to be.

Ryan White at Defense News adds this detail (Why is Lithuania risking Russia’s wrath over Kaliningrad? 06/21/2022):

The move comes on top of the EU flight ban of 21 Russian-certified airlines in April, preventing goods from being flown into Kaliningrad as well. The only uninterrupted method of transit left to the territory now is by way of the sea through international waters. ...

With Lithuania being a NATO member, any direct military action by Russia would trigger Article 5 of the treaty and the entirety of the alliance would at war with Russia. During the State of the Union Address, U.S. President Joe Biden vowed to defend “every inch” of NATO territory. In March, the U.S. bolstered its presence in Lithuania, bringing the number of soldiers stationed in the country to around 1,000.

Oh, yeah, world war between the two biggest nuclear powers is always a risk here, too. Kind of an important thing to keep in mind.