Economic sanctions are complicated

Nicholas Mulder provides an important reminder that economic sanctions, although they are often a less destructive set of measures than war, can actually be very destructive and are not "benign" actions: Keynes warned the world against using economic sanctions. His alternative is worth considering Guardian 01/20/2022. As he notes, "Sanctions were created as an antidote to war. Today, they have become an alternative way of fighting wars, perpetuating conflicts but not defusing them."

And they are often not clearly effective in achieving their declared goals:

Iran has been under US sanctions on and off since 1979. It has such longstanding experience resisting external pressure that further coercion is unlikely to work. Putin’s Russia has adapted to western sanctions imposed since 2014 by building up large financial reserves, promoting agricultural self-sufficiency, and designing alternative payments systems.

Western supporters of sanctions now face a gridlock that is in part of their own making. Instead of cooling tensions, their implacable and impulsive resort to the economic weapon has aggravated the very conflicts that it is meant to resolve.

Mulder goes back to a suggestion of John Maynard Keynes in the period between the two world wars that constructive economic aid to countries that are under some kind of threat from an outside power can be more effective in preserving peace than sanctions against the actual or potential aggressor.

There are no magic bullets here. Or magic sanctions, as the case may be.

Mulder notes that economic sanctions can affect not only the countries being targeted:

Today we once again face a fragile international environment. In past years the effects of nationalism, trade conflict, natural disasters, and the coronavirus pandemic have weakened globalization. Expanding the use of sanctions risks further destabilizing the world economy. Last year, sanctions on the Chinese telecoms giant Huawei aggravated the chip shortage. Sanctions on Venezuela’s oil exports have made Maduro’s government launch into a desperate scramble for cash by expanding dirty mining for gold and diamonds, poisoning locals and destroying biodiversity in the Amazon. Any major sanctions on Russia would, if imposed, cause turmoil in oil and gas markets that would particularly hurt European economies.