Should the Democrats fight for abortion rights, or duck-and-cover instead?

Walter Shapiro has an article in the New Republic on the Supreme Court's reversal on abortion rights that in some sense harks back to the conservative days of even-The-New-Republic days of Andrew Sullivan's dominance, In Texas, the GOP Has Just Overplayed Its Hand 09/03/2021.

Shapiro cites a Gallup poll that periodically surveys Americans about abortion. The tables presented at the links take various angles on support for abortion rights. These surveys did not ask specifically about abortion rights as such. The first set of results asked respondents, "Do you think abortions should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances or illegal in all circumstances?"

The most recent results from May 2021 show the following responses:

• 32% Legal under any
• 48% Legal only under certain
• 19% Illegal in all
•   2% No opinion

The subsequent questions aim to add nuance to those responses. But they don't add much.

But Shapiro focuses on the illegal-in-all category, "And just around 20 percent want to render all abortions illegal." And since that is the basic position of the Christian fundamentalist antiabortionists, that's a reasonable estimate of the hardcore opponents.

For decades, Republican officials have been pandering to that militant 20 percent slice of the electorate. They got away with it politically because most of the extreme restrictions on abortion have been enacted in smaller, GOP-dominated states in the South. But with Florida poised to follow the example of Texas by enacting legislation that would effectively ban an estimated 85 percent of all abortions, we have entered an era when pregnant women will have few options in two of the nation’s three largest states. [my emphasis]

This is a key point. A flat-out ban on abortion is extremely unpopular. But the Gallup poll does suggest that the anti-abortion constituency is somewhat larger. The 48% "Legal only under certain" category breaks down into 13% "Legal under most" and 33% "Legal only in a few." I would guess that as much of a third of the public would be supportive of the antiabortion position. After all, even the now-infamous Texas back-alley-abortion-promotion vigilante law technically allows abortion in the first six weeks of a pregnancy, although it's actual goal and effect will be to end access to legal abortion in the state.

On the other hand, the fact that a full 32% are choosing legal under any circumstances is striking for a different reason. Virtually no one is pushing for "abortion on demand" right up until nine months. The Roe v. Wade standard for Constitutionally protected general abortion rights is viability, i.e., up to six months. I read that as indicating that a third of respondents wanted to be sure they were clearly stating their support for basic abortion rights as established by Roe v. Wade.

So, the Republicans have gone all in with their partisan Supreme Court on a position very unpopular among voters in general and one regarded by Democratic voters as a critical part of women's rights. So, how does he suggest the Democrats strategically approach this issue? "Conversations Thursday with political consultants in both parties led to a surprising conclusion: Abortion will prove to be a more potent factor for Democrats in 2022 if it is put in the larger context of Republican extremism."

Okay, so let the Republicans have it, right?

Uh, no:

The hardest lesson for Democrats to remember is that shouting only appeals to voters who passionately agree with you to begin with. There is a distinction between the kind of political language used in fundraising and the more nuanced arguments aimed to swing voters. This is not to deny the legitimate rage at the latest anti-abortion Supreme Court ruling. But the short-term goal (holding the House and Senate for the Democrats in 2022) may require lower-decibel forms of persuasion and voter motivation. [my emphasis]

In other words, he recommends the standard Democratic reaction to Republican overreach, Duck and Cover:

Shapiro's advice is consistent with the current Republican talking point that, oh, the Court action was no big deal, nothing to worry about, they may even strike it down later.

Digby Parton takes a more urgent view of the situation, Far-Right Violence Being Validated By Supreme Court's Affirmation Of Texas' Vigilante Abortion Law Majority Report [09/04/2021]:

Democrats traditionally have more of a challenge than the Republicans turning out their base voters in midterm elections like those of 2022. That means that mobilizing their base around abortion rights is exactly what they need to do. The Republicans will be motivated by having a Democratic President and by the antivaxxer/pro-COVID agitators who are the current incarnation of the Tea Party of the Obama years.

But the Democratic base voters also really need to see Biden and the Democrats in the House and Senate raise a serious stink and take concrete actions to defend abortion rights. Just adding this as one more bullet-point on the fund-raising letters is not nearly enough.

Katrina vanden Heuvel emphasized the need for women's-rights supporters to do the very opposite of being calm and acting like it's no big deal. In To stop abortion opponents, the only solution is mass mobilization (Washington Post 09/07/2021):

Because Republicans have chipped away at reproductive rights so gradually, it’s easy to underestimate this moment’s severity. As the Nation’s Elie Mystal put it, “I feel like people are waiting for the headline ‘Roe v. Wade Overturned’ … before they demand that Democrats do something to protect abortion rights.” To protect millions whose rights are already jeopardized, we cannot wait for that moment to act.

It’s time for those who care about preserving reproductive rights to reinvigorate the grass-roots mobilization of 2017, when masses of pink-hatted protesters filled cities nationwide. Immediately, we can lend assistance to vulnerable patients being turned away at clinic doors now that S.B. 8 [the Texas back-alley-abortion-promotion one] is law — remembering that while safe abortion care remains a plane ride away for the affluent, poor and otherwise marginalized people won’t get necessary care without support.

She also endorses the Women's Health Protection Act to provide federal protection for abortion rights. Biden himself and the Democrats in both the Senate and the House need to make the most serious effort to pass protective legislation as soon as possible. A bullet-point on the fundraising letters is really, really not enough.