How do you solve a problem like Joe Manchin? (Someone should write a song about this)

The nominally Democratic Senator from West Virginia is acting out his "President Manchin" schtick again. He's now threatening to block any filibuster change and is even making noises about blocking the use of reconciliation, one of the current workarounds to the filibuster.

Emma Vigeland and Sam Seder discuss his latest dance in, Joe Manchin Yet Again Proves How Much He Sucks 06/09/2021 (It's not a pro-Manchin commentary!):

Josh Marshall discusses it in New Terrible News from Manchin! Yay! TPM 04/08/20201.

Marshall isn't ready to consign Manchin completely to the DINO category. And he seems to think an actual party switch is unlikely:

This view [of Manchin as a DINO or Republican wannabe] has the benefit of moral clarity. But it’s not true. Manchin just voted for the massive COVID relief bill and he’ll likely vote for a very big infrastructure bill, albeit probably with more slimming than the relief bill got. If Manchin were or wanted to be a Republican I guarantee you he could become one and be welcomed with open arms at any moment. Indeed, his political position and longevity in office would become much simpler.

He thinks President Manchin is playing a murkier game:

Manchin has said that his guiding priority is the success of the Biden presidency. And I think he means it. Yes, his claims about Biden and the filibuster are in wild contradiction. But that being the case doesn’t mean they have to change.

Never is a long time. Even 18 months is a long time. Manchin can say one thing categorically now and just change his mind later. That doesn’t mean it’s likely that it will happen. But it can. And Democrats need to keep operating on the possibility it could. But at least right now the chances don’t look good.

This is a real dilemma for the Democrats. If Manchin and the Republicans succeed in blocking enough constructive legislation, the Trumpistas could be back in control of one or both Houses of Congress in 2023.

Getting the H.R.1 - For the People Act of 2021 passed is critical If Manchin blocks that, he's voting to end democracy and to support the Republican insurrectionists. And that can't go through the Senate subject to the filibuster as it stands now. The problem the Democrats have had with conservative Dems like Manchin and others like him in the past is that they were willing to offer them benefits from going along with the rest of the party. But they have been too reluctant to make them pay a price for not doing so.

Progressive outliers like Bernie Sanders, of course, were regarded by the Democratic establishment in a different way.