The EU and the political cisis in Belarus

The recent stolen election in Belarus, and independent nations once part of the Soviet Union that never established a democratic government after 1989, has set off a new round of domestic protest and international concern.

The EU is considering what the right response should be. Belarus is not an EU member, but it one of the countries of significant political and economic concern for the EU: The country borders on Russia in the east, Ukraine in the south, and on the north and east by EU members Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Belarus is one of six countries that are part of the Eastern Partnership framework with the EU, along with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

The EU website currently features this set of Facts and Figures About EU-Belarus Relations that includes a Governance section which says (bolding in original):

• The EU-Belarus Coordination Group meets twice a year, at the level of senior officials, to steer cooperation between the EU and Belarus and oversee further development of relations.
• The annual EU-Belarus Human Rights Dialogue provides a forum for discussion on the human rights situation in Belarus and joint steps to be taken in this area. The EU remains committed to cooperate with Belarus to enhance democratic governance.
• The EU regularly raises issues related to freedom of assembly and association, freedom of speech and media as well as fundamental labour rights with the Belarusian authorities at all levels. The EU raises its strong opposition to capital punishment, which is still in use in Belarus, and calls for a moratorium on the death penalty.
• The EU has been supporting the implementation of the National Human Rights Action Plan in the period 2016-2019 and has encouraged dialogue between the Government and civil society. In the period 2014-2018, the EU has provided €30 million to support social entrepreneurship, civil society capacity building and participation in decision-making processes, enhancing professional reporting and strengthening the capacities of independent media professionals.
• With seven projects, Twinning, which brings together public sector expertise from EU Member States and beneficiary countries, has since 2016 become a new track of a preferred modality for EU-Belarus cooperation

So there is already a formal framework between the EU and Belarus for mutual interest in governance issues. But it's important to keeping in mind that the EU's own theory of democratization, incorporated into formal EU treaties and laws, is based on economic integration and development producing encouraging political liberalization and the strengthening of democracy and the rule of law. To put it inelegantly, well-heeled lobbies are generally more concerned about preserving continuity and mutual benefits in economic arrangements than in the good-governance issues.

Joerg Forbrig of the German Marshall Fund discusses the menu of possible immediate action alternative for the EU in Belarusians have rejected Lukashenko. So should the EU. Politico EU 08/13-14/2020. He argues that "the EU should clearly state that Lukashenko is not the legitimate president of Belarus. He has long been and is, even more obviously now, a plain usurper. With this election, he has lost whatever legitimacy he may have had left."

He provides more details on the immediate actions he advocates:

First, EU foreign ministries should instantly call in Belarusian ambassadors to express their strongest rejection of the actions of the Belarusian government.

At the same time, they should acknowledge, where applicable, the courage of Belarusian diplomats to conduct honest vote counts. At many embassies and consulates, which also serve as polling stations for expatriates, results were published that demonstrated Lukashenko's defeat.

Second, the EU and its member countries should, through their envoys in Minsk, show a maximum presence and offer support. They should visibly roam the protests, engage with people and observe police behavior.

They should attend trials against peaceful protesters, give interviews to independent media, invite engaged citizens and victims of police brutality to their embassies and regularly meet with key human-rights defenders.

Third, the EU and its member countries must ready humanitarian aid to all those who have suffered from the repression in the last days and weeks. Thousands have been arrested arbitrarily, mistreated in custody and severely injured. Many are now being tried and fined in court.

Belarusians have launched a massive campaign to help, with €1.5 million raised to date. More will be needed for legal assistance and fines, medical help to victims and financial support to their families, psychological and physical rehabilitation and relocation to safe countries. Europe can, and must, urgently help to mitigate this human cost borne by Belarusians.

Fourth, the EU should propose an international mission to mediate in the crisis. The standoff between a regime determined to cling to its illegitimate power and a society equally determined to assert its rights may not be overcome without an impulse from abroad.

An honest attempt by EU policymakers — perhaps a trio of senior parliamentarians from different member countries or a political dialogue between the regime and society under the auspices of the OSCE — would be worth undertaking. It would send a signal of constructive engagement to Belarusian society, while to the Lukashenko regime, it may be preferable to Russian interference in the situation. [my emphasis]

Jennifer Rankin reports for The Guardian on the EU discussions around Belarus in (EU considers sanctions after crackdown on protests in Belarus 08/14/2020):

European foreign ministers are expected to move towards sanctions on Alexander Lukashenko’s regime, after reports of systematic abuse and torture of Belarusians swept up in the brutal crackdown on protests.

The EU’s 27 ministers are holding an emergency video meeting on Friday afternoon to discuss the elections in Belarus, after Austria became the latest country to call for sanctions against those responsible for violence and arbitrary locking up of protesters.

Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Denmark have called for “restrictive measures against officials” responsible for the election result, which gave Lukashenko 80% of the vote following a contest the EU said was “neither free nor fair”. [my emphasis]