Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Can Trump postpone the US national election the way New Zealand's prime minister just postponed theirs?

Michael Moore mentioned on his Rumble podcast for Wednesday (8/19/2020) that he assumes Bunker Boy is looking at New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's postponement of the national election in New Zealand to see how he might attempt something similar here this year.

So it's worth thinking about just what the postponement of the New Zealand election involves. A quick summary:
  • New Zealand's system allows the Prime Minister to set the election date with the approval of an Electoral Commission
  • There is a legal limit to how long it can be proposed, this year's limit being November 21
  • The main opposition party, the largest party in Parliament, had called for a postponement The later date is considered to favor the opposition, an earlier date to benefit Ardern's Labour Party
  • Ardern's initial proposal for a two-week postponement was rejected by the Electoral Commission
  • The postponement was made in consultation with all four parliamentary parties currently serving along with the Labour Party

Eleanor Ainge Roy reports in New Zealand delays general election by a month amid Auckland Covid-19 outbreak Guardian 08/17/2020:
Ardern said after consulting with every political party in parliament, as well as the electoral commission, she had decided to move the general election from 19 September to 17 October.

She said her first suggestion of moving it by two weeks had been rejected by the Electoral Commission as not enough time to prepare logistics such as venues.

“The Electoral Commission, via the Ministry of Justice, has advised me that a safe and accessible election is achievable on this date,” Ardern said. “Moving the date by four weeks also gives all parties a fair shot to campaign and delivers New Zealanders certainty without unnecessarily long delays.”

Ardern said Covid-19 would be with the world “for some time to come” and repeatedly pushing the election date would not lessen the risk of disruption to voters and parties.

“This is why the Electoral Commission has planned for the possibility of holding an election where the country is at level 2, and with some parts at level 3. I will not change the election date again.”
New Zealand has a different system than the US. The US Presidential election is set by law to be the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The President does not schedule it.

Here we see that: the change had to be approved by a (presumably independent) Electoral Commission; the Election Commission rejected her first proposal for a new date; and the decision was taken in consultation with the other parties;

Ardern is leader of the Labour Party. The National Party is the largest party and is in opposition. The other three parliamentary parties are the ACT Party, the Green Party, and the New Zealand First Party. Ahern's government is a coalition of Labour and New Zealand First, with the Green Party voting to form the government without formally being part of it, also known as "tolerating" the government.

New Zealand First, the junior coalition partner, supports the new election date. "The opposition National Party has argued the election should be delayed as restrictions [in Auckland due to COVID-19 restrictions] on campaigning mean Ms Ardern had an unfair advantage." (New Zealand: Jacinda Ardern delays election over coronavirus fears BBC News 08/17/2020) The largest party in Parliament, currently in opposition, were demanding the election be postponed.

And the conventional assumption apparently is that not postponing the election would have favored the government and the Labour Party and that postponing the election may benefit the opposition. As Praveen Menon reports (New Zealand's Ardern postpones election as coronavirus flares up Reuters 08/17/2020):
Jacinda Ardern bowed to pressure to delay the polls after parties complained they could not campaign with nearly a third of New Zealand’s 5 million people under lockdown in Auckland.

“Ultimately, the 17th of October ... provides sufficient time for parties to plan around the range of circumstances we will be campaigning under,” Ardern said at a news conference.

The prime minister ruled out delaying the polls any further, as her Labour Party maintains a strong lead over the conservative National Party in opinion polls. ...

An earlier election would have worked in Ardern’s favour, as her success in stifling COVID-19 and keeping the country virus-free for 102 days until the latest outbreak had boosted her popularity.

The election was scheduled for Sept. 19 and New Zealand law requires it to be held by Nov. 21. Advance voting will now start on Oct. 3.

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