Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Is Biden ahead in the polls because of magical moderation?

[Update:] I did not yet know when I posted this a couple of hours ago that Michael Brooks, one of whose videos is embedded at the end of this post, passed away suddenly yesterday. This is really tragic news. A Variety has an article by Jordan Moreau on his death, Michael Brooks, Political Commentator and Podcast Host, Dies at 37 07/20/2020]

Ezra Klein provides a strange example of Beltway Village worship of "moderation" in How Biden is winning Vox 07/20/2020. Basically, he argues that Biden's current lead in the polls is a total validation of his pitch in the Democratic primaries that the voters are clamoring to Make America Boring Again and definitely to avoid the Democrats doing anything to address the intensity gap between The Democratic Party and the Trumpified but continually radicalizing Republican Party.

He describes what he calls "Biden’s view of the Republican Party":
He sees it not as a monolith but as a coalition. Some members of that coalition love Trump and will grieve his defeat. They’re not going to work with Biden, and he doesn’t expect to work with them. But some Senate Republicans dislike Trump, regret what their party has become, and are looking for redemption. What they need is a Democrat they can work with — a Democrat who doesn’t antagonize their voters and won’t rub their noses in their loss. What they need, Biden thinks, is Biden.

But this isn’t just Biden’s theory of governing. It’s also his theory of the campaign.
But Ezra's doesn't seem to realize that his argument that moderation on Biden's part is the basis of his popularity isn't entirely compatible with his additional observation that Biden's popularity is largely due to the fact that Joe Biden is not Bunker Boy. But, of course, that would also apply to any other Democratic Presidential candidate. He writes:
Trump’s approach to politics and lethal mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic have also given Biden an advantage, in part by neutralizing Trump’s ability to distract the country with feuds and flotsam, and in part by ensuring Democrats are mobilized to vote against Trump no matter what Biden does. Biden can take base mobilization somewhat for granted because Trump will do much of the work for him. “Trump is great at energizing his base,” says political scientist Alan Abramowitz. “But he’s equally good or even better at activating the Democratic base.”
Of all the very, very foolish things Democrats might do, being complacent about turnout would be the most politically irresponsible. It's worth recalling that the Hillary Clinton campaign made a similar complacent assumption. We know how that turned out.

Ezra's analysis of Biden's approach to the Senate filibuster rule plains also scares me (to put it mildly):
My question [in an interview last week] was simple. Democrats don’t have a path to 60 seats in the Senate. So how will Biden keep his agenda from dying at the hands of the filibuster? Would he support filibuster reform, or elimination? Biden’s reply was his campaign in miniature, reflecting both the instincts that have made him successful and the caution that has frustrated many on the left.

“I think it’s going to depend on how obstreperous they” — meaning Republicans — “become, and if they become that way,” he replied. “I have not supported the elimination of the filibuster because it has been used as often to protect rights I care about as the other way around. But you’re going to have to take a look at it.”

That answer, which reflected a genuine shift in Biden’s rhetoric on the issue, made some headlines. But it wasn’t the end of Biden’s argument. “I’ll say something outrageous,” he continued. “I think I have a pretty good record of pulling together Democrats and Republicans.” He went on to say many Senate Republicans will feel “a bit liberated” by Trump’s defeat and may be ready to work with Democrats on issues like infrastructure and racial inequality.

“In my career, I have never expected a foreign leader or a member of Congress to appear in the second-edition Profiles in Courage,” Biden said. “But I’m fairly good at understanding the limitations for a senator or leader and helping them navigate around to what they want to do from what they’re having political trouble doing. I have been successful in helping my Republican friends find rationales to help me get what I’m pushing over the top.” [my emphasis]
I can believe based on his career that Biden may actually believe he can charm Republicans into being reasonable on substantive issues critical to the Democratic Party. But the idea that Republicans will suddenly start actingwith  the "Tip-'n-Ronnie" comaraderie that Beltway pundits still take as their model of nicey-nice bipartisanship is delusional. And when Reagan became President in 2001, there were still substatial remnants of the situation from previous decades in which liberal-conservative divisions on some major actually did cut across party lines.And the Republicans hadn't just had two Presidencies whose seriously lawless action were not just countenanced be actively enabled by the Republicans in Congress.

Here's another examle of what asymmetric partisan polarization looks like.
Meanwhile, Bunker Boy is threatening to veto the Republican Holy of Holies, the Pentagon budget, unless it's changed to reduce the amount of Covid-19 testing available inside the US.

That's asymmetric partisan polarization. And once again, the Republicans get what they won't, the Democrats don't get what they want. Even when, in this case, what the Democrats want is to do something responsible to deal with a pandemic killing hundreds of thousands of Americans just this year.

Michael Brooks has a brief discussion from a left (pro-Bernie) perspective about some elements of Biden's program that are at least positive proposals that the pro-labor left can approve, even though they are insufficient to the challenges and opportunities of a new Democratic Administration. What Biden’s Campaign Is Getting Right (TMBS 148) 07/17/2020:

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