I'm assuming at this point, like presumably most people do, that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee. Bernie Sanders is still in the race but in a more low-key mode. The Bidenistas seem to be replaying 2016, repeating Bernie should drop out, Bernie should drop out, Bernie should drop out. And we're already hearing a preliminary version of "Biden lost to Trump and it's all Bernie Sanders' fault."
Sad as the Democratic establishment is, I don't recall in previous Presidential elections that they were promoting an excuse for losing long before the actual election.
Segregationist voter suppression against blacks and Latinos as well as complications created by the COVID-19 crisis are both likely to be serious problems for the Democrats in November. There is an economic slump happening now, especially with the closures required to limit the spread of COVID-19. And it's not easy to predict its severity or length. Nor is it immediately obvious that it will work more against the Republicans than the Democrats. (Bryce Baschuk, The Evidence Mounts That the Global Recession Is Already Here Bloomberg News 04/08/2020) By 8. April 2020, 06:00)
When it comes to predicting historical turning points, I lean toward Hegel's Owl of Minerva theory that we only begin to really understand the meaning of a historical era when it's coming to an end. ("When philosophy paints its gray on gray, then has a form of life grown old, and with gray on gray it cannot be rejuvenated, but only known; the Owl of Minerva first takes flight with twilight closing in." - From the Preface the Philosophy of Right)
Dani Rodrik indulges in a version of this kind of Hegelian restraint in Will COVID-19 Remake the World? Project Syndicate 04/06/2020:
COVID-19 may well not alter – much less reverse – tendencies evident before the crisis. Neoliberalism will continue its slow death. Populist autocrats will become even more authoritarian. Hyper-globalization will remain on the defensive as nation-states reclaim policy space. China and the US will continue on their collision course. And the battle within nation-states among oligarchs, authoritarian populists, and liberal internationalists will intensify, while the left struggles to devise a program that appeals to a majority of voters.In American politics, the fact that the Republican Party is now headed by a remarkably corrupt, evidently sociopathic character like Donald Trump is, for me, a sign that the center-right project that began with the Reagan-Thatcher era that the Owl of Minerva now views as the beginning of the neoliberal period in the US and Europe has effectively run it course. Rightwing economics with Reaganesque charm, strong-daddy John McCain vibes, or Romney-like oligarchic slickness and smarm just doesn't work for the Republican Party anymore. Trump provides Mussolini authoritarian vibes, astonishing levels of corruption combined with the staggering inefficiency in managing essential government business that normally comes along with it, and a creepy mixture of Christian Right fanaticism and Russ Limbaugh general contempt for decency and facts.
The Republican Party has now decayed into a straight-up Reverend Bittery party. The Reverend Ezekiel Bittery was a minor character in Sinclair Lewis' novel Gideon Planish (1943), a representative of the crackpot rightwing fanaticism that is now conventional practice in the Trumpist Republican Party:
Brother Bittery is a flannel-mouthed rabble-rouser who used to be charged not only with stealing the contents of the church poor-box, but of taking the box itself home to keep radishes in, and who at present if he isn't on the pay-roll of all the Fascists, is a bad collector.Once Brother Bittery gains some national notoriety, reporters marvel at the crassness of his views:
And during all this time, the Reverend Ezekiel himself will, as publicly as possible, to as many persons as he can persuade to attend his meetings, have admitted, insisted, bellowed, that he has always been a Ku Kluxer and a Fascist, that he has always hated Jews, colleges and good manners, and that the only thing he has ever disliked about Hitler is that he once tried to paint barns instead of leaving the barns the way God made them.In 2020, the Reverend Bittery would be giving daily press conferences on the COVID-19 epidemic.
The qualitative degeneration of the Republican Party is one aspect of what Rodrik calls "the slow death" of Reagan-Thatcher neoliberalism. That's not to say that an undead version can't continue to stagger along and wreak further damage.
Unfortunately, the Democratic Party seems to have exhausted its own version of center-left neoliberalism. Let's face, whether or not Bernie Sanders is in the picture, Joe Biden is a conservative. Even a Democratic conservative with traditional commitment to actually make government function, even if it primarily functions for the wealthy and the most affluent of the middle class, would be far better than Ezekiel Bittery Trump.
Jeet Heer looks at Biden as a candidate in Biden Is a Problem for Democrats in Pennsylvania The Nation
Biden is an unusual front-runner. He doesn’t draw the biggest crowds or have the largest base of donors. At a time when the Democratic Party is shifting to the left, he often seems annoyed by progressive demands, taking swipes at protesters calling for action on climate change or immigration. He reassured rich donors that “nothing would fundamentally change” if he’s elected. This seems the opposite not just of Sanders’s political revolution but also Obama’s promise of “hope and change.”Biden has an enthusiasm problem, as Heer notes in this tweet:
In Pennsylvania, Biden has the clear support of the state Democratic Party, winning endorsements even from politicians who had initially supported other candidates. Former Philadelphia mayor Michael Nutter backed Bloomberg but has now joined the crowded Biden camp, which also includes Rendell, Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, state Treasurer Joe Torsella, and most of Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation. Representative Conor Lamb and Senator Bob Casey have been notable endorsements because they illustrate Biden’s popularity among centrists. This long list speaks to his strength in positioning himself as the candidate who unites tried-and-true Democrats.https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/democrat-pa-biden-problem/ Sanders has a much less impressive array of supporters here. But whoever becomes the party’s nominee will have to win over not just committed Democrats but also more marginal voters. This remains Biden’s weak spot.
1. As the presumptive nominee, Biden is in pretty good shape for the general. He's consolidating support in the party and has a robust lead in national polls. The one weak area is enthusiasm, where he's weakest Democratic candidate in 2 decade. pic.twitter.com/UMG4QEzSWU— Jeet Heer (@HeerJeet) April 7, 2020
And the in-two-decades part refers to the fact that the data the chart uses only goes back 20 years.
Biden and his campaign have to fix this. Bitching and moaning at this point about how the Bernie Bros are mean to them won't do it. Getting better technical performance on Biden's home studio operation will help, but it won't solve the problem. Oh, and for God's sake, don't use your bookshelves as the background for his home studio appearances! The one time the dorky conservative Democratic marketing strategy might be useful is here. Hang a huntin' rifle on the wall an film him in front of that! Or a deer's head! Or some patriotic World War II poster!
Democratic operatives and activists who at this point are still chanting the "It will be Sanders' fault if Biden loses" mantra are effectively saying, "we know Biden will lose to Trump."
There is a Joe Biden YouTube channel. Check out a couple of videos there and see how well he stresses clear popular themes, or not.
He does have a short ad - from March 22 - comparing Trump and Biden on the COVID-19 response, Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump on the Corona Virus Response:
Biden's first comment shown: "This is bigger than any one of us. This is - calls for a national rallying to everybody move together." The first four clips of Trump show him bullying reporters. The last two show Trump promoting his favorite untested medical miracle cures for the virus, but they don’t include the virus part.
Who is the target audience here? And why only clips about Trump bashing the press and saying how narcissistically confident he is? Those are all clips that voters open to Trump will like. The clips show Biden talking calmly but vaguely about things he thinks should be done. But it includes none of Trump saying something obviously stupid or irresponsible about the crisis response. The message seems to be that Trump is crude while Biden is the proverbial adult-in-the-room which so impresses Democratic "Make America Boring Again" voters. But no one will come aware from that particular ad thinking, "Wow, Trump really screwed up the roll-out of testing" or anything else about Trump's actual response.
Meanwhile the press is also repeating its 2016 practice by running Trump's daily COVID-19 briefings where Trump does his I'm-the-strong-guy-in-command act and throws in some professional-wrestling digs at people his voters consider bad, e.g., The Press, "Deep State" bureaucrats, doctors, military commanders who don't show personal fealty to Trump.
The Trump campaign will not focus on winning over 2016 or 2018 Democratic voters this year. They will focus on turning out their basis. And they will try to demobilize Democratic voters and potential swing voters for Biden. Bot of which means they will make their usual rabid attacks against Biden and the Democrats. The Senate Republicans are already prepping an investigation of Hunter Biden pseudoscandals. And Biden does have a sexual assault allegation against him by a former staffer that just went public that the Republicans will use no end. Trump's sexual abuses and escapades mean nothing to Republican voters. If anything, they signal to authoritarian voters that Trump is a Strong Man and Great Leader. But those two scandals alone have a lot of potential to convince less-engaged Democratic voters not to vote for Biden. This is a turnout election. So generating some real enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket is critical.
And Democratic operatives and activists chanting "It's all Bernie's fault!" will not win the election. In fact, anyone at this point saying, "It's all Bernie's fault!" is effectively admitting that they assume Biden will lose.
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