Thursday, March 19, 2020

How to shoot yourself in the foot while being right - yes, of course, I mean the Democratic Party

Establishment Democratic leadership is so inept even at being right that it's sometimes painful to see.

Here's the Democratic Senate leader (Richard Cowan, Democratic leader Schumer criticizes Trump's call for $1,000 checks Reuters 03/18/2020)
“The coronavirus is slowing our economy to a near standstill and we are almost certainly anticipating a recession,” Schumer said in a speech on the Senate floor. He added that expanded unemployment benefits would be a more effective way of helping workers than a $1,000 check from Washington.
He's right. At least a small bit right. Expanded unemployment insurance would be a more effective, targeted way to provide assistance immediately to the many, many workers who are being hammered by the Trump Virus Recession that now seems to be underway. And the distribution system is there in every state. You just expand the coverage.

The very capable economics journalist Frances Coppola recently explained why $1,000 drops of money to everyone is suboptimal, even in this moment, in Is 'helicopter money' the answer to the looming economic crisis? OpenDemocracy.net 03/17/2020.

Noting that in the 2008 crisis, she advocated for such a response at the time and still in retrospect thinks it would have been an appropriate response in that situation:
There are two specific reasons why I think helicopter money is the wrong policy for this crisis. Firstly, the amounts of money proposed by Furman, Roubini and Mankiw, and by Prime Minister Morrison in Australia, are totally inadequate. $1000 isn’t even a month’s wages for Americans, and nor is AU$750 for Australians. Those who lose their jobs, or are self-isolating, or are ill, need their incomes maintained. Unconditional basic income, not discretionary handouts, is the right solution for them.

The second reason is that spending more is actually the last thing we want people to do right now. Prime Minister Morrison’s proposal to give pensioners additional money is particularly bad. Pensioners are the highest risk group, and therefore need to retreat into their houses and protect themselves, not take the grandchildren to Disneyland. Giving them money to encourage them to spend sends completely the wrong message and is potentially dangerous for them.

But it’s not just pensioners for whom helicopter drops right now would be a bad idea. The companies worst affected by the pandemic are those that provide leisure services – airlines, cruise ships, travel companies, restaurants and bars, event organisers. These businesses all bring people together in one place for relatively long periods of time, increasing the risk of infection and potentially turning those people into disease vectors for the rest of the population. This is why countries are shutting restaurants and bars, banning events, closing borders, and advising vulnerable groups not to travel. Yet these are exactly the sort of activities on which people might want to spend their helicopter money. If they were able to do so, then helicopter money would not only be completely counterproductive, it would be dangerous.
She adds, "And if people couldn’t spend the money on leisure activities, what might they do? Well, they might stockpile goods. There is already a run on loo rolls, pasta, baked beans and flour. Why do we want to fuel this?"

She favors the helicopter-money move "when the virus has passed and people start emerging from their cocoons." Right now - presumably speaking for the US and Europe - she argues: "The top priority must be healthcare, not money. Countries that don’t currently have free universal health care need to provide it. And countries whose healthcare services are underfunded and overstretched need to throw money at them. Staffing and equipment shortages urgently need to be resolved."

And this is how she would like to see governments address income maintenance:
Gig economy workers and the self-employed are particularly vulnerable, since they are always the first out of the door when hard times arrive and many live hand to mouth. It will be some time before the incomes of these workers recover, and many are not eligible for existing benefits, or if they are, the benefits are wholly inadequate. They need unconditional basic income.

Government also needs to support business cash flows as sales fall, so that they can continue to pay workers and maintain supply chains. Some countries are already heading in this direction: for example, Ireland is introducing a scheme to enable companies that have ceased to trade due to the pandemic to continue paying their workers at least the unemployment benefit rate, and Denmark is proposing to support workers’ wages at 75% of full pay in return for companies agreeing not to lay them off.

Maintaining people’s incomes protects landlords, banks and utility companies from defaults. And helping companies to maintain employment and supply chains should enable them to recover quickly when the virus has passed.
But, why, why, can't the Democrats put out a message that doesn't come across as, Trump wants to give everyone $1000 right now and we're against it? Matt Lech dramatizes the problem on Twitter:




That Common Dreams article is by Eoin Higgins, Refusal by Pelosi to Consider Universal Cash Payments in Response to Coronavirus Pandemic 'Maddening,' Say Progressives 03/18/2020.

Part of what's going on is that Congress is trying to push through emergency measures to address the current crisis. And that means the tactical manuevers that are a standard part of Congress doing business suddenly get more public attention than usual. The Democrats need to manage this better.

A lot of longtime loyal Democratic voters are soothed to think that we're now likely to have Joe Biden as the Democratic Presidential candidate campaigning to Make American Boring Again and don't much notice when the Democratic leadership does things like this. But less diligent Democratic voters and actual swing voters are likely to perceive this kind of thing in a different way that Democratic Bidenistas do.

Michael Brooks talks about this issue on The Hill's Rising podcast in the second video below. This is the introductory report, Krystal and Saagar BLAST Pelosi for holding up cash to workers 03/19/2020:



Michael Brooks issues DIRE warning to Establishment Dems:

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