Friday, January 17, 2025

Democrats after Biden

As more elaborate analyses of the Presidential election become available, it appears that Joe Biden’s Gaza policy was a big negative for Harris that dragged down Democratic voter participation. That doesn’t mean the issue was decisive in itself. But it does indicate it was important, as shown in the results of a poll by the IMEU [Institute for Middle East Understanding] Policy Project and YouGov. (1)

As Ryan Grim notes, “From 2020 to 2024, Democrats saw a staggering dropoff in support at the presidential level, with some 19 million people who voted for Joe Biden staying home (or not mailing in their ballots) in 2024.” (2) And he cautions, “Citing a top reason for not voting is far different than it being the only reason not to vote.”

He talks about it here: (3)



It’s broadly clear that the Democrats need a different approaching to defining their party’s branding, and doing so with substantive policy positions, not just as campaign marketing. One of the ironies of Biden’s Presidency is that he actually did move economic policies more toward a Keynesian approach to business cycles, industrial policy, unionization, and antitrust enforcement. But public perceptions of the economy were seemingly not closely connected to the actual macroeconomic situation, which by all conventional measures were very good by the standards of recent decades.

Adam Tooze reminds us that how economic condition affect voting behavior is not something that can be read off a table of macroeconomic statistics:

Economic sentiment is not an independent cause. If someone declares that worries about the cost of living swung them to vote for Trump in 2024, it would be naive to imagine that if Biden’s economic policy had delivered a marginally lower inflation rate that voter would have swapped back to the Biden camp.

In the United States today, political partisanship and worldview, individual socio-economic experience and macroeconomics are profoundly entangled. (4)


There has previously been a lot of analysis of how inflation expectations among Republicans were particularly high during the campaign compared to Democrats. But after Trump was elected, Republicans suddenly considered inflation to be much less of a problem.

... technocratic policy advocates, especially those in the Democratic camp, who discuss inflation expectations and unemployment-inflation trade offs as though they were non political variables to be optimized by policy maker and on that basis make highly conservative recommendations to the Democratic camp. In America today, government driven by fear of “de-anchoring” inflation expectations is government driven by fear of Republican and “independent” voters whose expectations are far more likely to de-anchor.


The Republican Party has established itself as the party of billionaires and people who see politics as a form of professional wrestling entertainment. The Democrats are stuck with being a messy combination of traditional liberal welfare-state and pro-union sentiments and commitment to civil rights, while trying as hard as they can to chase the flood on wealthy-donor campaign money magnified radically by the 2010 Citizens United Supreme Court decision, and constantly tempted to muddle its image even more by pursuing “bipartisanship” that no actual voter cares about, including Kamala Harris campaigning just before the election with Liz Cheney, a rightwing Republicans that Republicans reject and Democrats see as a iconic figure of the Republican Party.

And as we see in the current transition, we see lots of Democrats in Congress trying to find ways to be “bipartisan” with the Trumpistas, while the leadership isn’t clearly defining opposition themes.

The Democrats have to improve their political focus and build up the state party infrastructures. They can’t just muddle along like its 1993.

Notes:

(1) New Poll Shows Gaza Was A Top Issue For Biden 2020 Voters Who Cast A Ballot For Someone Besides Harris. Institute for Middle East Understanding Policy Project, Jan. 2025. <https://www.imeupolicyproject.org/postelection-polling> (Accessed: 2024-17-01).

(2) Grim, Ryan (2025): Kamala Harris Paid the Price for Not Breaking With Biden on Gaza, New Poll Shows. Drop Site 01/15/20125. <https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/kamala-harris-gaza-israel-biden-election-poll> (Accessed: 2024-17-01).

(3) STUN POLL: Gaza COST Kamala Election. Breaking Points YouTube channel 01/15/2025. Breaking Points YouTube channel 01/15/2025. <https://youtu.be/Cty1g5ItBVw?si=Y2ME3MNmW3rugsx1> (Accessed: 2024-17-01).

(4) Tooze, Adam (2025): Against overcorrection. Yellen's Treasury defends the legacy of Democratic fiscal policy. Chartbook 01/17/2025. <https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-346-against-overcorrection> (Accessed: 2024-17-01).

Thursday, January 16, 2025

Gaza Ceasefire? Maybe. But the possibility for it falling through is high.

Daniel Levy appears on Democracy Now! with Jeremy Scahill and Muhammad Shehada to discuss the Gaza ceasefire that may or may not get signed between now and Trump’s Inauguration. (1)


Qasim Rashid also gives us a snapshot of the current moment in this maybe-ceasefire:
Yesterday [Wednesday], Israel and Hamas announced a ceasefire agreement that promised to end Israel’s 16 month siege on Gaza and secure the release of dozens of hostages. No sooner was this deal announced, but the Israeli military viciously bombed civilian tents and a residential building in central Gaza, one in which disabled children were seeking safety, killing at least 77 more Palestinians. Adding to the injustice, and as has happened so many times, the deal seems to already have unraveled as Israel has furthermore delayed a cabinet vote, accusing Hamas of creating a “last-minute crisis.” (2)
He also gives a background on previous negotiations and the pattern of Israeli sabotage of them that has so often pursued.
Hamas has affirmed its commitment to ceasefire, stating it had upheld all terms outlined by the mediators. Meanwhile, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly accused Hamas of thwarting the deal, he refuses to identify what Hamas allegedly did. This isn’t the first time Netanyahu has obstructed progress on a ceasefire or hostage deal. In fact, the receipts show this is part of a disturbing pattern, and it is a disgrace the Biden administration continues to fall for it while innocent people continue to suffer and die.
Chris Hedges also gives a recap of the previous diplomatic efforts repeatedly torpedoed by Israel. He takes a particularly jaded view of the current situation – not without reason:
Israel, going back decades, has played a duplicitous game. It signs a deal with the Palestinians that is to be implemented in phases. The first phase gives Israel what it wants — in this case the release of the Israeli hostages in Gaza — but Israel habitually fails to implement subsequent phases that would lead to a just and equitable peace. It eventually provokes the Palestinians with indiscriminate armed assaults to retaliate, defines a Palestinian response as a provocation and abrogates the ceasefire deal to reignite the slaughter.

If this latest three-phase ceasefire deal is ratified — and there is no certainty that it will be by Israel — it will, I expect, be little more than a presidential inauguration bombing pause. Israel has no intention of halting its merry-go-round of death.

The Israeli cabinet has delayed a vote on the ceasefire proposal while it continues to pound Gaza. At least 81 Palestinians have been killed in the last 24 hours. (3)
Peter Beinart late in November reviewed Trump’s Israel policy from his first term and looked at the group of hardline pro-Israel team he had already assembled, making this prediction for his second term:
In the weeks and months to come, it’s likely that Trump will criticize Israel’s leaders, or its wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and that the media—ever alert to stories that play against type—will warn that Netanyahu’s days of blank-check US support may be coming to an end. Don’t fall for it. For a Republican Party now defined by ethnonationalism, ardent support for Israel is as foundational as hostility to non-white immigration to the US. Trump may waiver in his support for Israel. But his presidency will not. [my emphasis]

Notes:

(1) Daniel Levy, Muhammad Shehada, Jeremy Scahill on Ceasefire Deal, Trump's Role & Palestine's Future. Democracy Now! YouTube channel 01/16/2025. <https://youtu.be/aULNgLFlEiE?si=L8DHaHUxpOawubqa> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

(2) Rashid, Qasim (2025): "Ceasefire" Deal As Israel Keeps Bombing Gaza. Let’s Address This (Substack) 01/16/2025. <https://www.qasimrashid.com/p/ceasefire-deal-as-israel-keeps-bombing> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

(3) The Ceasefire Charade. The Chris Hedges Report 01/16/2025. <https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/the-ceasefire-charade> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

(4) Trump’s Israel Instincts Don’t Matter. Jewish Currents 11/26/2024. <https://jewishcurrents.org/trumps-israel-instincts-dont-matter> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

Spinning the pending Gaza ceasefire agreement

Haaretz columnist Amos Harel appears to have good sources on at least what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants the public to hear about its thinking. Unfortunately, it’s often hard to tell whether Harel is reporting in a journalistically-critical manner or just boosting Netanyahu’s preferred message of the moment.

His latest analysis of the planned ceasefire seems to lean pretty heavily toward the latter approach. (1) In his telling, it was the tough-minded insistence of that shrewd and determined statesman Donald Trump that reluctantly pushed Netanyahu to agree to the deal – whose implementation according to Harel is to begin “most likely, early next week, i.e., after Trump is sworn in as President.

Harel writes, “His enormous pressure on both sides and on mediators Egypt and Qatar finally brought about the deal.”

As Esquire columnist Charlie Pierce sometimes likes to say, “Honky, please.”

Did they hire some scriptwriter from The Apprentice to come up with this spin? When did Donald Trump of the real world ever take enough time off from playing golf to pull such a feat? Harel’s column is basically a puff piece for Trump. In Harel’s spin:
The current positive result would not have been reached without the efforts of the defense establishment, the one responsible for the terrible failure that led to the massacre. And yet, negotiations would not have reached their final lap without Trump. Over the autumn, and increasingly so after his victory in the presidential election in November, he set his target: a full cease-fire and the gradual return of all the hostages.

For a long time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not want this deal. His followers insist that his considerations were relevant. Controlling the so-called Philadelphi corridor on the Gaza Strip's border with Egypt was presented as an eternal security requirement for Israel. The rapidity with which Netanyahu retreated from this principle under pressure from Trump attests to the real weight of this argument.
A key claim to watch if this ceasefire is implemented: Netanyahu “also agreed to allow the entry of 600 trucks with humanitarian aid per day, 100 more than the daily average before the war.” The chance of that happening for more than a few days of photo-ops is somewhat lower than Trump announcing on Saturday that he will not agree to be sworn in as President because it would demean the office for a convicted felon to assume it.

The biggest “tell” that this is a total puff piece is this: “Trump … acts out of a tangled web of interests, focusing on positioning the U.S. within the rapidly changing global strategic picture, as well as looking after his personal status and prestige.”

In the real world, Trump is looking for any way to use his office to enrich himself. If real reporters get to interview Trump, they should ask him how he would assess “the rapidly changing global strategic picture.” If he responds to it all, it would be something like: “America First, China virus, tariffs, wokeness.”

Only in the next-to-last paragraph does Harel explains (somewhat obliquely) that there are countless ways that Netanyahu can and almost certainly will come up with excuses to resume the full-on genocidal war that supposedly will have a pause with this agreement to allow Trump to brag about how he brought Peace To The Middle East.

Harel’s final paragraph is another piece of boilerplate:
At the same time, the characteristics of the new arrangement will become clearer, including questions such as whether the Gaza Strip will be reconstructed, which countries will mobilize and finance this and whether there is a chance for an overall solution that includes an alternative government that removes the murderous terrorists of Hamas from ruling the Gaza Strip.
Palestinian independence? Two-state solution? A non-apartheid Israel including Palestinians? Not part of the program. A reminder: in 2024, the Israeli Knesset (Parliament) voted 98-6 to reject any kind of Palestinian state. It’s very officially not part of the program.
This resolution — passed 68-9 — altogether rejects the establishment of a Palestinian state, even as part of a negotiated settlement with Israel.

“The Knesset of Israel firmly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state west of Jordan. The establishment of a Palestinian state in the heart of the Land of Israel will pose an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens, perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and destabilize the region,” the resolution stated. (2)
Notes:

(1) Harel, Amos (2025): How Trump Scared Netanyahu Into Accepting a Cease-fire Deal With Hamas. Haaretz 01/16/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-01-16/ty-article/.premium/how-trump-scared-netanyahu-into-accepting-a-cease-fire-deal-with-hamas/00000194-6bd9-d876-affe-7ffb0c1d0000?gift=9107a7d6ea114272bfcb9a2a897ee609> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

(2) Magid, Jacob (2024): Knesset votes overwhelmingly against Palestinian statehood, days before PM’s US trip. The Times of Israel 07/18/2024. <https://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-votes-overwhelmingly-against-palestinian-statehood-days-before-pms-us-trip/> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

The Trump-Ukraine dilemma

George Beebe gives a high-level image of what a reasonable and constructive settlement of the current Russia-Ukraine would look like:

[A]n independent Ukraine securely embedded in the EU; a Europe better able to deter and counterbalance Russia with its own resources; and a Russia and China that are less united in their hostility toward Washington. That vision is well worth pursuing, even if the odds of failure are significant. (1)


The phrase “the devil is in the details” hardly begins to describe the complications below those broad goals. But that’s also what foreign policy strategy is about: having a large view of desired goals, and then pursuing the kind of maddening details and complicated negotiations and maneuvering and various forms of carrots-and-sticks offers and concessions that lead to a better strategic situation. Hopefully one that does not require war to achieve.

Beebe’s piece also follows the convention in these kinds of articles of proposing ideas to the current or incoming government as though the audience is professional and competent and serious about pursuing a responsible foreign policy. It seems almost like a farce to make such a pitch as though Trump were a competent actor with a real sense of broader public responsibility.

Deutsche Welle reports on peace deal prospects (2):



At the same time, pitching an argument to the Trump Administration which sounds like it’s based on those assumptions inevitably highlights how reckless and irresponsible an actor Trump and the Trumpistas are on the international scene.

Beebe’s recommendations are based on looking at the reality of the situation:

Put American Interests First. The Biden administration has, from the invasion’s start, insisted that it is up to Ukraine to decide if and when to seek an end to the war. It has offered tactical advice but deferred to Kyiv on setting strategy. This has proved to be a recipe for unending conflict that is devastating Ukraine and perversely incentivizing Kyiv to draw the United States more directly into the war. [my emphasis]

But, despite his signature MAGA slogan, Trump has no thought of putting “American interests first.” Trump puts his own personal interests first, last, and everywhere in between.

Broaden the Problem. Part of the reason that Biden has deferred to Kyiv was a widely shared belief in Washington that the war is a bilateral matter between Russia and Ukraine, and that the key to any peace settlement was to maximize Ukraine’s leverage on the battlefield. That assumption was fundamentally flawed. It failed to understand that Russia’s enormous numerical advantages in population and military production meant Ukraine’s military was bound to weaken over time in a war of attrition, even with robust Western support. And it failed to recognize that the United States has long been able to negotiate from a position of strength if it viewed the war through a wider lens. [my emphasis]

When people say that Trump has a “transactional” approach to foreign policy, they mainly mean that he sees international relations in terms of negotiating -Trump/Mafia style – with individual nations. Viewing the Russia-Ukraine War or any other foreign policy “through a wider lens” is something that Trump has give us very limited evidence that he is capable of doing.

He talks about NATO as if it’s a mob protection-racket run by the US. He has threatened military action against NATO ally Denmark in order to take Greenland from them. He has threatened Panama with military action if they do not surrender the Panamanian territory of the Panama Canal to the US. Panama is a US ally under the Rio Treaty (3) (officially the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance), probably another treaty that Pete Hegseth, Trump’s nominee to be Secretary of Defense, also knows nothing about. Trump probably also knows nothing about it and cares even less.

Play the China Card. Recognizing that the war has deepened Russia’s dependence on China, the Biden administration pressed the Chinese to arm-twist Putin into ending the invasion, dangling the prospect of new sanctions if Beijing refused. But Beijing’s ambivalence toward the war was never going to translate into picking sides, and Biden’s with-us-or-against-us approach missed an opportunity to explore the subtleties in China’s calls for settling the war.


Donald Trump is going to take a sophisticated balance-of-power, triangulating approach to US-China-Russia relations? My guess: (4)



To be fair, I’m confident that George Beebe doesn’t actually think so, either. But observing the style of offering serious advice to government officials is at least a kind of statement of optimism or hope.

I actually do hope that there is some kind of more-or-less functional agreement gets done on Ukraine that at least would minimize further military damage until a more pragmatic-minded President comes to the Oval Office. We’ll see if the incoming Trump Administration can achieve something like that, or at least is willing to get out of the way for someone else to structure the peace arrangement. But it’s hard to imagine Russia being willing to agree to such a settlement without the US signing on.

Notes:

(1) Trump may get Russia and Ukraine to the table. Then what? Responsible Statecraft 01/13/2025. <https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-ending-war-ukraine/> (Accessed: 2025-13-01).

(2) Could the Trump administration broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal in 2025? DW News YouTube channel 01/03/2025. <https://youtu.be/i3xn7tFhnaM?si=Okk9JPvcEZQvIsHa> (Accessed: 2025-03-01).

(3) Lobo, Francisco (2025): The Rio Treaty’s Security Pact and Unintended Consequences of Threatening Canada, Greenland, and Panama. Just Security 01/08/2025. <https://www.justsecurity.org/106160/rio-treaty-trump-canada-greenland-panama/> (Accessed: 2025-13-01).

(4) Same Line Different Films - I Don't Think So. Larry Dors YouTube channel 05/29/2019. <https://youtu.be/X0f3efFUgDM?si=VOfD0aHJtLDXFvpG> (Accessed: 2025-13-01).

More on progressive online media

Kyle Kulinski on his Secular Talk channel features a recent report by MSNBC’s Chris Hayes on the scandal of the US support for Israel’s genocidal actions in Gaza. (1)


This seems like a good opportunity to mention some additional worthwhile websites for news, analysis, and commentary that could be considered part of the left-alternative media. With the current turmoil in corporate media including the billionaire-controlled online sites that were not so long ago commonly called “social media,” even the terminology of which brands of media are which is likely to change over the next couple of years.

And critical reading is always necessary.

Here are ten more valuable “alternative” sources:

Thomas Zimmer: https://thomaszimmer.substack.com/p/the-modern-conservative-tradition">

Press Watch: Not a daily news site, but one that regularly publishes critical analysis of mainstream press coverage. https://presswatchers.org/

The Mark Thompson Show: https://www.youtube.com/@themarkthompsonshow

DC Report: Founded by David Cay Johnston, does good investigative journalism. Also appears often on the Mark Thompson Show. https://www.dcreport.org/

Democracy Now! Amy Goodman of Democracy Now! for many people is probably the image of an “NPR liberal,” a term usually applied to earnest but timid mainstream Democrats. But the reporting is generally solid. https://www.democracynow.org/ https://www.youtube.com/@DemocracyNow

DW News (Deutsche Welle English): Deutsche Welle is a German public broadcasting and news organization that provides a lot of English-language content. It’s kind of a German version of the BBC. https://www.dw.com/en/top-stories/s-9097 https://www.youtube.com/@dwnews

France 24 English: A French public news service similar to Deutsche Welle. https://www.france24.com/en/ https://www.youtube.com/@France24_en

Le Monde diplomatique:This French news service has a monthly English-language version, though much of it is behind subscription. The articles tend to be longer analytical pieces and are good sources for understanding major international news. https://mondediplo.com/

Juan Cole’s Informed Comment: Juan Cole is an academic expert on Shi’a Islam and has been writing regularly at his Informed Comment site about Middle East politics since the Iraq War. A recent article of his is a good example of how he parses the news in a very helpful way: “Trump: Turkey’s Erdogan staged “Hostile Takeover” of Syria using HTS Proxies, and is the ‘Victor’” 12/17/2024. <https://www.juancole.com/2024/12/turkeys-erdogan-takeover.html> in that piece, he tries to translate a set of garbled claims by Trump about the situation in Syria into intelligible English.

This is exactly the kind of patient parsing of Trump’s often scatterbrained statements that we need to get from qualified experts and reporters for the next four years.

TomDispatch: A long-running blog by Tom Englehardt that offers a variety of “restrainer” type analyses of US foreign policy from sources including Michael Klare, John Feffer, Karen Greenberg, William Hartung, and Alfred McCoy. Juan Cole is also a contributor. https://tomdispatch.com/archive/

Notes:

(1) ‘DISGRACEFUL!’: Fed Up MSNBC Host TURNS On Biden-The Kyle Kulinski Show. Secular Talk YouTube channel 01/13/2025. <https://youtu.be/25rA7nmeVA4?si=tXaGPRnOZVBl-ppk> (Accessed: 2025-13-01).

A Gaza cease-fire coming up?

Laura Rozen reports on the rumors and speculation on a possible cease-fire in the Gaza war/genocide:
President Biden, a week before he is due to hand over power, expressed optimism about prospects for at long last reaching a deal for the release of some of the 100 hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons, and a phased ceasefire in Gaza. The basic structure of the three phase deal is one the administration has been pursuing for over eight months.

“On the war between Israel and Hamas, we are on the brink of a proposal that I laid out in detail months ago, finally coming to fruition,” Biden said in a valedictory foreign policy speech at the State Department today.

“We are pressing hard to close the deal we have structured that would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians, who have suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started,” Biden said. “They've been through hell. So many innocent people have been killed.

“The Palestinian people deserve peace, and the right to determine their own futures,” Biden said. “Israel deserves peace and real security. And the hostages and their families deserve to be reunited. And so we're working urgently to close this deal.”

“I have learned in many years of public service to never, never, never, ever give up,” Biden added. (1)
The BBC reports:


At this point, it’s likely any ceasefire during the next few days or immediately after Trump’s Inauguration will be mainly a stunt to make Benjamin Netanyahu’s preferred Presidential candidate Donald Trump look good.

In fact, at the moment, it looks suspiciously similar to Ronald Reagan’s Inauguration, when Iran released the hostages it had held since the previous year immediately after Reagan was sworn in as President. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Benjamin Netanyahu is planning the same sort of thing.

Because of that, it’s not entirely clear why Hamas would agree to such a ceasefire if it gave back all the hostages. (Under international law, they should give back all the hostages, but neither Hamas nor Israel actually care about international law.)

Because Israel will just make up some pretext or seize on some particular incident to claim they had to immediately resume whatever kinds of military actions they actually stop. But why would Israel even adhere for a few days to whatever they agreed to do in the ceasefire? Neither Biden in his last hours in office nor Trump as President will impose any meaningful restraints on Israel’s military action in the absence of political pressures from inside and (mostly) outside for a real change in policy.

Rozen presentas about the only kind of very cautious optimism that it seems we can take from the present moment, which is that Trump and Biden have cooperated “at least on the issue of a Middle East peace deal managed to set aside their differences for the sake of trying to free the hostages and end the awful bloodshed in Gaza.”

Haaretz columnist Alan Pinkas definitely seems to think Netanyahu was stalling the previous hostage negotiations in order to time a solution to coincide with Trump’s hoped-for Presidential Inauguration:
If the 20th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution – ratified on January 23, 1933 – had determined that presidential inaugurations would be on January 10 and not January 20, the five Israeli soldiers who were killed in Gaza on Monday likely would have been alive, their families not destroyed, a hostage deal might have already begun and scores of Gazan lives would have been spared.

It's that simple, that appalling, that tragic and that cruel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may whine all he likes about how U.S. President-elect Donald Trump made him do it. He is already selling the "I had no choice, we managed to postpone this for months" message to his ultranationalist, messianic, warmongering ruling coalition partners. But the truth is very clear: he has agreed to a deal he could and should have signed many months ago. But ailing hostages rotting in oxygen-deprived tunnels for 15 months and over 120 Israeli soldiers killed since he declined a previous deal are the least of his concerns. This is who and what he is. ...

The deal that may – and still may not – be agreed and signed on Tuesday or Wednesday was on the table last May, again in July and practically ever since. But Mr. Netanyahu, in the name of "an existential war" that will produce a "total victory," waited for the U.S. election and then for the presidential inauguration before agreeing to a deal. …

This is an extraordinarily tenuous agreement given what Hamas is and Netanyahu's track record. It would come as no surprise to anyone if he is telling his reluctant and sulking ministers, "Don't worry, the cease-fire won't hold." (3)
Notes:

(1) Rozen, Laura (2025): Biden says on ‘brink’ of hostage release/Gaza ceasefire deal. Diplomatic 01/13/2025. <https://diplomatic.substack.com/p/biden-says-on-brink-of-hostage-releasegaza> (Accessed: 2025-14-01).

(2) US says Israel and Hamas “on brink” of Gaza ceasefire deal. BBC News 01/14/2025. <https://youtu.be/-FT8a8p3z9U?si=u2cVGndYzXCcVdbd> (Accessed: 2025-14-01).

(3) Pinkas, Alon (2025): The Gaza Cease-fire and Hostage Deal Is the Same One From Eight Months Ago. Why Did Netanyahu Accept It Now? Haaretz 01/14/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-01-14/ty-article/.premium/the-gaza-cease-fire-deal-hasnt-changed-in-eight-months-why-did-netanyahu-accept-it-now/00000194-649e-d2ad-a19d-76df0cf80000?gift=0e77daf7ec9e4beb87765d24c9c5d422> (Accessed: 2025-14-01).

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Trumperialist bad “reality"-TV and the “Unitary Executive” Theory

One problem with having a President who is unfortunately a master media-manipulator when it comes to projected his desired messages is that even when his consciously making threats to function as some kind of distraction, or as entertainment for his cult followers, People still have to question whether he is actually serious. Because he’s about to again become the President of the country with by far the biggest military on earth.

Kyle Kulinski has a worthwhile early analysis of Trump’s clear threats of military action against Denmark and Panama, his threats of economic action and the explicit threat of military action against Canada for the purposes of annexing it, and the threats being floated by his team to start military strikes in Mexico with the cover excuse that Mexican drug cartels are terrorist organizations and therefore a legitimate target for conventional military strikes on Mexico. (1)


Numerous commentators stress that we have to keep a focus on what Trump’s actions as President are once he’s inaugurated. It’s going to be a constant balancing act for pro-democracy Americans to not focus on Trump’s provocative statements and let them become distractions, and also to recognize that the Trumpistas are coming back to the Presidency at the head of a party that is currently acting like an authoritarian cult.

Because Trump and his movement operate on Steve Bannon’s notorious media strategy of “flood the zone with s**t,” constantly trying to “trigger the libs” by making obnoxious or incendiary statements and threats. On the other hand, Trump and his transition team are clearly operating on the general guidance of the radical-right Agenda 2025 program issued by far-right operators last year.

Michael Waldman wrote about this program in July 2024:
Usually politicians pretend to read books they haven’t opened. Donald Trump made news last week when he claimed not to have read a book, one written by his friends and allies. The 887-page doorstopper is the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 book Trump claimed to “know nothing about Project 2025” and have “no idea who is behind it.”

Why that transparent fib? Perhaps Trump wanted some distance from Kevin Roberts, leader of the Heritage Foundation. “We are in the process of the second American revolution, which will remain bloodless,” Roberts declared, “if the left allows it to be.” Perhaps, too, Trump realized that if the public knew what was in the plan, it would send chills. …

Above all else, it espouses a maximalist version of the “unitary executive theory,” the notion that the president personally controls the executive branch and can act free from checks and balances. It’s a fancy version of what Trump told civics students in 2019: “I have an Article II [of the Constitution], where I have the right to do whatever I want as president.” (2)
The Unitary Executive Theory is a career project of a former Congressman and former Vice President named Dick Cheney. There have been disputes over the limits of Presidential power since George Washington’s Presidency. And Dick Cheney certainly wasn’t the first person to elaborate some kind of theory for broader Presidential power.

Jeffrey Crouch and two co-authors describe this very expansive notion of Presidential power in The Unitary Executive Theory: A Danger to Constitutional Government (2021). (2) The disputes over Presidential power in recent decades was triggered by the many excesses of the national security state during the time of the Vietnam, including illegal acts of repression against domestic dissenters.

While Presidents Jerry Ford and Jimmy Carter were willing to accept more formal restraints on Presidential power and Carter was particularly focused on fighting the reality and the perception of government corruption, The Republicans wanted to go in a different direction. As Crouch et.al. put it:
The laws temporarily bottled up the emerging trend toward increased independent presidential powers and vastly expanded authority for chief executives, but even they ultimately ended up as merely temporary dams before the rising tide of presidential power. The unitary executive theory emerged in this context. With the presidency secured, Reagan and his supporters could now effectively push back against Congress and what they saw as illegitimate interference with the president’s constitutional responsibilities and powers.
This pushback for greater Executive power – at least for Republican Presidents – involved several figures whose names are still fairly familiar: Edwin Meese, Steven Calabresi, Samuel Alito – the Supreme Court Justice who features sleazy billionaire Paul Singer as a sugardaddy (4) – Robert Bork, torture-program criminal John Yoo, Steven Calabresi, and Reagan solicitor general Charles Fried. As Rozell and Crouch explain, a very influential case for the Unitary Executive Theory – which would better be described as an Elected Autocrat theory of government – was made in the minority report to the Iran-Contra Congressional investigation. (5)
In 1987, then representative Cheney wrote most of the Iran-Contra Minority Report, although Republican representatives William Broomfield, Henry Hyde, Jim Courter, Bill McCollum, and Michael DeWine and Senators James McClure and Orrin Hatch also signed it. The report offers valuable insights into Cheney’s thoughts on presidential power. Moreover, it provides a glimpse at what would become some of the core arguments advanced not only by unitary executive advocates in the George W. Bush administration but also by Presidents Barack Obama and Donald J. Trump, who likewise believed they could unilaterally act outside the Constitution and laws.
Obama was particularly fond of using his “Unitary Executive “powers for drone warfare unauthorized by Congress nor justifiable in terms of international law. (6)

In fact, Mark Halperin and John Heilemann reported in 2011, while Obama was still in his first Presidential terms, he told his staff, “Turns out I’m really good at killing people. Didn’t know that was gonna be a strong suit of mine.” (7)

The degeneration of the US government’s commitment to the rule of law is primarily due to the authoritarianism that Republicans have adopted over the decades. But it has definitely been a bipartisan failure. But I assume that Obama could also brag on that topic, “Didn’t know that was gonna be a strong suit of mine.”

Maybe that what he was chuckling about during his cozy chat with incoming President Trump at Jimmy Carter’s funeral.



Notes:

(1) 'HE'S LOST IT!': Trump Threatens Panama & Greenland With WAR. Secular Talk YouTube channel 01/08/2025. <https://youtu.be/6E6nUPJbEeo?si=wcDzuYRPBh-Hxh8v> (Accessed: 2025-11-01).

(2) Waldman, Michael (2024): A Dangerous Vision for the Presidency. Brennan Center for Justice 07/10/2024. <https://www.brennancent governmer.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/dangerous-vision-presidency> (Accessed: 2025-11-01).

(3) Crouch, J. Rozell, M.J. & Sollenberger, M.A. (2021): The Unitary Executive Theory: A Danger to Constitutional Government (2021). Lawrence KS: University Press of Kansas.

(4) Elliott, Justin et al (2023): Justice Samuel Alito Took Luxury Fishing Vacation With GOP Billionaire Who Later Had Cases Before the Court. ProPublica 06/20/2023. <https://www.propublica.org/article/samuel-alito-luxury-fishing-trip-paul-singer-scotus-supreme-court> (Accessed: 2025-11-01).

(5) Minority Report of Members of House and Senate Select Committees on Secret Military Assistance to Iran and the Nicaraguan Opposition, November 18, 1987. National Security Archive. <https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/18221-national-security-archive-doc-05-minority-report> (Accessed: 2025-11-01).

(6) Murphy, Ian (2013): Obama Brags He's 'Really Good at Killing People'. Progressive Magazine 11/04/2024. <https://progressive.org/latest/obama-brags-really-good-killing-people/> (Accessed: 2025-11-01).

(7) Zenko, Micha (2017): Obama’s Final Drone Strike Data. Council on Foreign Relations 01/20/2017. <https://www.cfr.org/blog/obamas-final-drone-strike-data> (Accessed: 2025-11-01).

(8) Obama, Trump share moment at Jimmy Carter’s funeral. FOX 32 Chicago 01/10/2025. <https://youtu.be/yKkdhp76Iyo?si=-pVhGXZH8P9AdyUI> (Accessed: 2025-11-01).

Friday, January 10, 2025

Los Angeles Fire Politics

Nora O'Donnell interviewed the LA fire chief in this CBS segment (1) that reminded me about how municipal budgeting works. "Extended interview: L.A. fire chief on how budget cuts limited fire response ‘to a certain factor’."

I once worked for the San Jose (CA) municipal budget office, quite a few years ago now. And it was a running joke that the police and fire departments every year would ask for huge increases in their budgets. And they would justify them by claiming they wouldn't be able to handle their basic duties if they didn't get the additions. Here it looks like the fire chief's budget rhetoric came back to bite her. Because here she's arguing that the Fire Department had done every necessary preparation for a situation like this.

And of course, every official is going to be looking to duck any blame for the disaster. And to give the press and the public alternative scapegoats.

The oligarchic press – “establishment press” doesn’t really do justice to the current news monopoly companies and their cohorts in the fossil fuel industry – will also look for scapegoats to avoid politicians talking about climate change. And the Trumpistas will blame the whole thing on the “Dem-u-crat Party.”

Sam Seder on today’s Majority Report made an important point that we’re very likely to find out that the above-ground power lines contributed significantly to the speed of the fires’ spread. Underground power cables are just plain better than the overground ones. They aren’t nearly as subject to damage in high winds. When you hear about forest fires in Northern California, they often turn out to have been started by overground power lines that blow down in high winds.

Extended interview: L.A. fire chief on how budget cuts limited fire response "to a certain factor". CBS News 01/09/2025. <https://www.cbsnews.com/video/l-a-fire-chief-on-whether-budget-cuts-impacted-the-fire-response/> (Accessible: 2025-09-01).

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Trumperialism?

At one level this is just plain dumb. But dumb and reckless are what a plurality of American voters selected to be President for a second time. (1)


I’m sure the Proud Boys and the rest of the Trumpistas will continue to giggle over how their Mighty Hero Trump is “owning the libs” by saying crazy and irresponsible stuff.

But Trump is literally threatening – or, as Deutsche Welle report says, “has refused to rule out military force to gain control of the Panama Canal, and Greenland.” Trump is quoted in the report:
Well, we need Greenland for national security purposes.” I've been told that for a long time long before I even ran I mean people have been talking about it for a long time you have approximately 45,000 people there people really don't even know if Denmark has any legal right to it but if they do they should give it up because we need it for national security. That's for the Free World, I'm talking about protecting the Free World.
As the report also describes, Greenland is a part of the Kingdom of Denmark, a NATO ally. That means an ally in a mutual-defense treaty. Trump is clearly threatening to go to war against a NATO ally in order to force them to cede Greenland to the US. None of the MAGA zealots are likely to ask questions beyond that, they’re just enjoying the reality show.

In fact, France – currently the one nuclear power in the EU – and even Germany are at least in diplomatic rhetoric taking the threat seriously:
Germany and France have warned Donald Trump against any attempt to “move borders by force” after the incoming US president said he was prepared to use economic tariffs or military might to seize control of Danish-administered Greenland.

In a hastily called televised statement, Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said Trump’s remarks had triggered “incomprehension” among European leaders. “The principle of the inviolability of borders applies to every country – regardless of whether it is east of us or to the west – and every state must respect that, regardless of whether it is a small country or a very powerful state.”

Earlier, the French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, said that Europe would stand up in defence of international law. “There is no question of the EU letting other nations in the world, whoever they may be, attack its sovereign borders.”

Barrot added on France Inter radio, that, while he did not believe the US “would invade” Greenland, “we have entered an era that is seeing the return of the law of the strongest”. (2)
The MAGA crowd will probably take this as another “freedom fries” moment. (3)

NATO countries are heavily dependent in the current treaty arrangements on US support for defense against any possible Russian aggression. NATO has a long history and there is lots than can be said about it good and bad. But that’s the current alliance system. And the incoming US President is threatening war against another of the NATO allies. He may just be throwing out rhetorical chum for the MAGA crowd to pleasure themselves with.

But this is a very practical signal to EU countries that they need to move to decouple their own defense as much as possible from the United States. That means, among other things, they should not commit military support for whatever military adventurism the US has in mind for Asia or the Near East.

Trump is not only threatening the nations of Denmark and Panama with hostile military action – Trump’s not-so-MAGA predecessor George H.W. Bush made a blatantly illegal regime-change invasion of Panama in 1989 with no more regard for the so-called “rules-based international order” than Trump shows – he’s threatening NATO ally Canada and the non-NATO nation of Mexico with invasion and even annexation.

Another important factor is that the European allies have militaries that are heavily integrated with the US military. It doesn’t prevent them from acting independently, as France has been doing in various countries of Africa with tacit US consent. But there is only a nominal common European military capacity, the European Defence Agency (EDA). (4)

If defense against a potentially aggressive Russia is a European priority, current NATO ally Britain could be a potential part of the European-centered mutual defense structure. But Britain has basically since the Suez crisis of 1956, Britain has been very consistent in not wanting to wind up on the opposite side of the US on any major foreign policy question. (The British government was critical at times of US policy in the Vietnam War, but they were not actively involved in the Vietnam War in the way they were in their joint action with France and Israel in invading Egypt during the Suez Crisis, where they were on the other side of the US position.)

The “restrainer”-oriented website Responsible Statecraft has an analysis by Joanna Rozpedowski that strikes me as a bit odd. (5) But basically, she’s giving a kind of best-case statement of how Trump’s threats against Denmark and Panama might be justified.

Not surprisingly, the EU Commission initially tried to publicly duck the issue.
Although the Commission confirmed that any military action against Greenland would activate the EU's mutual assistance clause in Article 42(7) of the Treaty, it refused to answer whether it assesses that there's a real risk of the U.S. invading Denmark's overseas territory, calling the case “very theoretical.” (6)
Yes, it’s not often mentioned, but the EU Treaty does have a mutual-defense clause. And, at least on its face, its more binding than the NATO Treaty.

Notes:

(1) Trump considering using military force to take Greenland. DW News YouTube channel 01/08/2025. <https://youtu.be/rJzmRldVUUc?si=GFhl_uYsjQpQlq0o> (Accessed: 2025-08-01).

(2) Wintour, Patrick et al (2025): Germany and France warn Trump against use of force over Greenland. The Guardian 01/08/2025. <https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/08/france-warns-trump-against-threatening-eu-sovereign-borders-greenland> (Accessed: 2025-08-01).

(3) Freedom fries. Wikipedia 10/13/2024. <https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Freedom_fries&oldid=1250951159> (Accessed: 2025-08-01).

(4) European Defense Agency (EDA). European Union website n/d. <https://european-union.europa.eu/institutions-law-budget/institutions-and-bodies/search-all-eu-institutions-and-bodies/european-defence-agency-eda_en> (Accessed: 2025-08-01).

(5) Rozpedowski, Joanna (2025): 'America First' meets Greenland, Taiwan, and the Panama Canal. Responsible Statecraft 01/07/2025. <https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-greenland/> (Accessed: 2025-08-01).

(6) Körömi, Csongor (2025): EU dodges questions on Trump’s mooted invasion of Greenland. Politico EU 01/08/2025. <https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-dodges-questions-donald-trump-invasion-greenland-military/>

Monday, January 6, 2025

Short report on the ugly political situation in Austria

This is a good, ten-minute Deutsche Welle report inn English on the current political situation (crisis) in Austria.



It features a short but worthwhile interview with Austrian political scientist and independent political analyst Natascha Strobl.

As she says in the clip, “The strength of the far right is the weakness of all the other democratic parties.” And that’s true in varying degrees in various other countries, including the United States, as well.

Notes:

(1) What makes far-right parties so appealing to voters? DW News 01/05/2025. <https://youtu.be/l14O5Q4biB4?si=kCoIB6Q-mKOagU4Y> (Accessed: 2024-06-01).

Saturday, January 4, 2025

Looking at the New Year for Syria

Richard Haass applies his impeccable credentials as a member of the US foreign policy establishment to several issues in the New Year. After cautiously expressing “some reason for optimism” for “potential ceasefires in both Ukraine and Gaza” and even “possibly a grand bargain with Iran.” (1)

It’s nice to see someone entering the New Year with an upbeat perspective!

But after the Happy New Year intro, he gets down to more specific analysis starting with Syria:
I want to start with Syria ... [A]s we often see in history, the victors tend to fall out once the glue provided by shared opposition to the former regime disappears. We are seeing some of this in Syria. There is a degree of score-settling, which to many in Syria I expect looks a lot like attacks on the Alawites, the ethnic minority to which the Assads belong. It is also hard not to worry that ISIS will exploit the situation for its own purposes. We are also seeing some foreign intervention. Israel seems to have settled into the south; it has no interest in seeing a unified Syria that can again constitute a threat. Turkey, I would wager, is preparing an assault on the Kurds even if in principle it wants Syria to calm down so millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey can return home. Turkish businessmen are also keen to help Syria rebuild. It will be interesting to see if the Turks hold off until after January 20 before going after the Kurds and, if they are so inclined, what sort of signal they receive from the Trump administration. [my emphasis]
Most Americans have presumably heard of the Kurds over the last several decades of the forever wars. From Iraq, or Syria, or Türkiye, or maybe Iran. The long conflict in Syria since 2011, also known as the Syrian Civil War, has probably appeared to most Americans as a murky mess, sometimes involving sarin gas chemical warfare. The Syrian Kurds established an autonomous government in northeastern Syria, formally called the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, also referred to as the Rojava region, which has a notable democratic orientation not common to other Syrian political factions so far. The Kurds have been US allies there so far. As a Council of Foreign Relations (which Haass headed for 20 years, 2003-2023) report explains:
Kurds have fought to consolidate a de facto autonomous territory in northern Syria, which has made them alternately friends and foes of Arab opposition groups. The Islamic State’s siege in 2014 of Kobani, a strategically located Kurdish town near the Turkish border, was a turning point. The defense of the town by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) highlighted the militant group’s effectiveness against the Islamic State. U.S. forces aided in ousting Islamic State fighters from Kobani and continued to provide arms and air support to the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Over time, the YPG’s priority turned to consolidating autonomous Kurdish cantons in the country’s north, a region the Kurds refer to as Rojava (Western Kurdistan). YPG fighters, interested in protecting fellow Kurds, have been accused of ethnic cleansing in mixed Arab-Kurd areas. The YPG is tied to the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara and Washington have designated a terrorist organization. In August 2016, Turkey deployed its military along the Syrian border to both roll back Islamic State forces and, in tandem with Syrian Arab and Turkmen fighters, block the Kurds from linking up their two cantons in a contiguous territory. The United States faced the dilemma of trying not to alienate either the YPG or Turkey, a NATO ally that was also a vital partner in the war against the Islamic State. But Washington eventually chose Ankara, agreeing in October 2019 [the first Trump Administration] to remove its troops in Syria near the Turkish border so that Turkey could launch a military offensive against the Kurds. [my emphasis] (2)
But the US hasn’t completely abandoned the Syrian Kurds, so far. And has also imposed restraints on Türkiye’s action against Rojava. Türkiye supported the Islamic insurgents (formerly affiliated to Al Qaida) which recently took power in Damascus. Yet as Haass notes in the quotation above, Türkiye could wind up going to war with the Rojavan Kurds. He seems to think that could begin any day now.

Israel’s goals in Syria are unclear. But so far the goal seems to be to leave Syria as a failed state.
The [Israeli] military operation’s scale and focus raise pressing questions about Israel’s intentions [in Syria] and its long-term impact on Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Analysts have drawn comparisons to the chaos seen in Iraq after the US-led invasion and Libya’s fragmented post-Gaddafi reality.

Israel’s occupation of additional Syrian territories near the Golan Heights compounds this uncertainty.

The Golan, a region of strategic and symbolic significance, was annexed by Israel in 1981, a move deemed illegal by the United Nations. Since Assad’s fall, Israel has extended its control, even seizing a UN-monitored buffer zone.

This occupation has sparked no condemnation from western nations, despite UN affirmations of Syrian sovereignty over the Golan Heights. (3)
And Juan Carlos Sanz notes that Turkey is serious about exercising major influence in Syria going forward:
In the culmination of its neo-Ottoman expansion strategy across part of its former empire, Turkey has quickly staked its claim in Syria. An unprecedented deployment of spies, diplomats, security agents, and bodyguards has been visible on the streets and in hotels of Damascus. Ankara has also sent 120 members of its Ministry of the Interior’s rescue teams to search for hidden underground cells in the notorious Saidnaya prison, a symbol of the atrocities committed by the Assad family during half a century of dictatorship. Dozens of Turkish reporters have closely followed these developments, with Turkish media deploying one of the largest international presences in the country, including television broadcasting teams stationed at key points in the Syrian capital.

Since becoming Turkey’s top political leader in 2002, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has had to wait for his gamble on the Syrian opposition and his stance against the Assad regime to pay off, emerging as a winner after more than 13 years of civil strife, destruction, and barbarism. Turkey has worked hard to reverse its course as sidelined power — a position the war had relegated it to. [my emphasis] (4)
Türkiye’s hopes for a more powerful Syria as a Turkish ally is likely to run up against Israel’s (presumed) aim of keeping Syria in “failed state” condition. But Türkiye’s ambition to crush the functioning of the Kurkish Autonomous Region in Rojava is also likely to cause complications with the US, as well. Of course, if the Trump 2 Administration actually does pull out of NATO, that will scramble relations with Türkiye along with all the other NATO allies.

Sanz also points to moves by Türkiye that could lead to some kind of peaceful accommodation with the Rojava Kurds. But it could also turn very ugly.

Deutsche Welle reported last week on Türkiye's’s aims in Syria: (5)


Notes:

(1) Haass, Richard (2025): Not Peanuts (January 3, 2025). Home and Away. <https://richardhaass.substack.com/p/not-peanuts-january-3-2025> (Accessed: 2025-03-01).

(2) CFR.org Editors (2024); Syria’s Civil War: The Descent Into Horror. Council on Foreign Relations 12/20/2024. <https://www.cfr.org/article/syrias-civil-war> (Accessed: 2025-03-01).

(3) Bakir, Ali (2024): Israel’s attacks on Syria threaten regional stability and will ultimately backfire. Middle East Eye 12/31/2024. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/syria-israel-attacks-threaten-regional-stability-backfire> (Accessed: 2025-03-01).

(4) Juan Carlos Sanz, Juan Carlos (2025): Turkey stakes its claim in Syria. El País 01/02/2025. <https://english.elpais.com/international/2025-01-02/turkey-stakes-its-claim-in-syria.html> (Accessed: 2025-03-01).

(5) What are Turkey's aims in Syria? DW News YouTube channel 12/27/2024. <https://youtu.be/1MChjr2O1n4?si=fx5jncua8nHVFNd-> (Accessed: 2025-03-01).

Friday, January 3, 2025

“Social Banditry”

Somehow, I don’t ever remember coming across the phrase “social banditry” before. But it gave me a way to post something about the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson but not split a lot of theoretical hairs about whether the fact that some people expressed some degree of understanding for the act is another sign of the impending Doom Of Civilization.

Romantic idolization of criminals as folk heroes is not new. For instance, it reminded me among other things of this song, a Woody Guthrie piece here sung by Rosanne Cash. (1)


If anyone wants to tell me that Rosanne Cash is celebrating murder and encouraging robbery and assassination, all I can say is: Bite me!

Yes, Charles Arthur “Pretty Boy” Floyd in real life was a robber and (maybe) a murderer and a mostly terrible human being. (2) But that’s not how folklore – and folk songs - work. Pretty Boy Floyd did destroy mortgage papers during bank robberies. Which in the Great Depression gained him some real sympathy.

Joshau Zeitz used the “social bandit” term in a Politico Magazine article:
In 1959 the Marxist scholar Eric Hobsbawm introduced the concept of “social banditry” into the historical and sociological lexicon. Social bandits were sometimes fictional, sometimes real figures who operated outside of the law and were widely revered for their efforts to mete out justice in an unjust world — like Robin Hood, the legendary English outlaw who lived in Sherwood Forest and, with his band of Merry Men, “stole from the rich and gave to the poor.”

Hobsbawm’s theory, which historians continue to debate, rested on a fairly specific Marxian analysis of power and economic relationships in agrarian societies, with bandits (or the idea of bandits) providing a form of resistance in the face of rampant inequality. But such characters transcended different geographies and times, ranging from the fictional Robin Hood in 14th century England, to brutally violent, real-life outlaws like Jesse James and Billy the Kid in the post-Civil War era United States, to Pancho Villa in early 20th century Mexico. [my emphasis] (3)
Pancho Villa, by the way, was an actual Mexican revolutionary. But not a choirboy, and not really the Thomas Jefferson type. (But Villa didn’t own slaves, either, so there’s that!)

Speaking of Marxists, John Reed – who was honored in the then-new USSR by burial inside the Kremlin walls after his death in 1920 – was heavily influenced in his understanding of revolution by covering Pancho Villa in Mexico. (4)

In Politico terms, using a Marxist’s explanation of a cultural phenomenon qualifies as pretty edgy. But, hey, when you’ve got a point, you’ve got a point:
Whether Rob Roy MacGregor, aka the Scottish Robin Hood, or Ned Kelly, a 19th century Australian outlaw, “the crucial fact about the bandit’s social situation is its ambiguity,” Hobsbawm wrote. “He is an outsider and a rebel, a poor man who refuses to accept the normal rules of poverty. … This draws him close to the poor: he is one of them. It sets him in opposition to the hierarchy of power, wealth and influence. He is not one of them.

… At the same time the bandit is inevitably drawn into the web of wealth and power. Because, unlike other peasants, he acquires wealth and exerts power. He is ‘one of us,’ who is constantly in the process of becoming associated with ‘them.’” (Of course, being “one of us” doesn’t mean the social bandit cannot come from wealth or privilege. As the Robin Hood lore evolved from its 14th century roots, the masked bandit became a former nobleman who turned traitor to his upbringing and cast his lot with the poor. It’s about affinity and identity, not background.) (Politico Magazine) [my emphasis]
Notes:

(1) Rosanne Cash - Woody Guthrie At 100! / "Pretty Boy Floyd". Rosanne Cash YouTube 02/10/2018. <https://youtu.be/KdlB4hdZ5mU?si=9UzxWVULH7Zq50qX> (Accessed: 2025-02-01).

(2) Editors (2024): Pretty Boy Floyd. Encyclopedia Britannica 12/13/2024. <https://www.britannica.com/biography/Pretty-Boy-Floyd> (Accessed: 2025-02-01).

(3) Zeitz, Josua (2024): People Are Cheering on a Shooting. This Theory Could Explain Why. Politico Magazine 12/10/2024. <https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/12/10/united-healthcare-killer-reaction-theory-00193513> (Accessed: 2025-02-01).

(4) Day, Megan (2021): How the Mexican Revolution Made John Reed a Red. Jacobin 11/23/2021. <https://jacobin.com/2021/11/mexican-revolution-john-reed-journalism-pancho-villa> (Accessed: 2025-02-01).

Thursday, January 2, 2025

Israel’s War in Gaza at the start of the New Year

Former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy brings us a recent update on the state of diplomacy around Israel’s current Gaza war. (1)


The current war in Gaza is being extensively documented.

Gideon Levy, the Haaretz editor and columnist, continues his criticism of Israel’s gruesome Gaza war. It’s worth remembering at the start of the year that Israel’s current war is by far the longest war (in terms of continual conflict) Israel has ever had. The fact that the US government under Joe Biden’s administration has effectively completely supported Benjamin Netanyahu’s genocidal war in Gaza that is obviously expanding to the West Bank is one of the lowest moments in American foreign policy.

Levy focuses his conduct of Brigadier General Yehuda Vach who has managed to distinguish himself by his criminality even in this grotesque war:
Every day that Yehuda Vach remains in his job is another day's worth of evidence – not only of the war crimes the army is committing, but also of the fact that Israel stands behind them. Vach, who of course grew up in the settlement of Kiryat Arba and attended the Eli premilitary academy, isn't some unusual wild horse that must be reined in. Vach is the IDF [Israeli Defense Force], and the IDF is Israel.

The debate is about whether Israel has or has not perpetrated ethnic cleansing in the Gaza Strip. The debate is even about whether the IDF is perpetrating genocide.

If there's a division commander in Gaza who tells his officers that in his view, there are no innocents in Gaza – not as a personal opinion, but as a combat doctrine – then genocide is the spirit of the commander. If there's a division commander who reprimands his officers for "not achieving the goal," and the goal is expelling roughly 250,000 residents from their homes, then ethnic cleansing is the IDF's declared policy. [my emphasis] (2)
Haaretz has reported continuously on the dramatic, damning evidence of the IDF’s conduct, though press coverage has obviously been severely limited by the IDF’s deliberate targeting of journalists in Gaza. For instance:

"Calling ourselves the world's most moral army absolves soldiers who know exactly what we're doing," says a senior reserve commander who has recently returned from the Netzarim corridor. "It means ignoring that for over a year, we've operated in a lawless space where human life holds no value. Yes, we commanders and combatants are participating in the atrocity unfolding in Gaza. Now everyone must face this reality."

While this officer doesn't regret mobilizing after October 7 ("we went into a just war"), he insists the Israeli public deserves the full picture. "People need to know what this war really looks like, what serious acts some commanders and fighters are committing inside Gaza. They need to know the inhuman scenes we're witnessing." (3)
Yoel Elizur describes five categories of soldiers based on the research of Nuphar Ishay-Krien published in 2012:
  1. A small Callous group was composed of ruthless soldiers, some of whom confessed to violence before the draft. These soldiers committed most of the severe atrocities. …
  2. A small, ideologically violent group supported the brutality without taking part. …
  3. A small incorruptible group opposed the influence of the callous and ideological groups on the company's culture. Initially intimidated by brutal commanders, they later took a moral stand and went on to report the atrocities to the division commander. …
  4. A large group of followers consisted of soldiers with no prior inclination to violence. Their behavior was most influenced by junior officers' modeling and the company's norms. Some followers who committed atrocities reported moral injuries: "I felt like, like, like a Nazi ... it looked exactly like we were actually the Nazis and they were the Jews." …
  5. The restrained was a large group of inner-directed soldiers who maintained military standards and did not commit atrocities. (4)
Another Haaretz columnist, Alon Pinkas, recalls the constructive effect that Jimmy Carter’s long advocacy for a comprehensive peace settlement recognizing the rights of Palestinians and ending the illegal occupation by Israel had:
Carter often held a mirror in front of Israel – one it self-righteously refused to look at, and resented him for doing so. His observations, especially in his 2006 book "Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid," published 27 years after he had mediated the Camp David peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, were a clairvoyant description of Israel's trajectory: As long as it maintains its occupation of 5 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, without a glimmer of political hope for independence and eventual statehood, the future is ominously bleak, Carter wrote.

The issue may be complex, there may be extenuating circumstances, Israel may be right and Carter and most of the world may be wrong. But his warning and criticism from almost two decades ago were prescient and a preamble to prevalent world opinion in the months following the October 7 Hamas attack and ensuing war in Gaza. [my emphasis] (5)
Brandeis NOW has a video of a 2007 presentation by Carter on his Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid book. The title of the piece alludes to a correction Carter made to the book after the first edition:
Asked about a sentence in his book that seemed to justify terrorism by saying that suicide bombings should end when Israel accepts the goals of the “road map” to peace with Palestinians, Carter said, “That sentence was worded in a completely improper and stupid way. I’ve written my publishers to change that sentence immediately in future editions of the book. I apologize to you personally and to everyone here.” (6)
The passage in question, which is quoted by a questioner was, “It is imperative that the general Arab community and all significant Palestinian groups make it clear that they will end the suicide bombings and other acts of terrorism when international laws and the ultimate goals of the Roadmap for Peace are accepted by Israel.” (7)

I’m no specialist in the arcane diplomatic phrasing about such things. But the meaning of that as a practical matter seems pretty clear, i.e., the Palestinian groups should call off their irregular warfare (“terrorism”) if Israel starts abiding by international law on occupied territories, which they were then violating and now doing so even more spectacularly. But the so-called War on Terror was in full swing in 2007 and most people – and basically no establishment journalists – was interesting in parsing what kinds of guerrilla or “partisan” warfare was legal or not. In any case, the laws on war on require that irregular forces (guerrillas) wear clothing identifying themselves as combatants, so most of the suicide bombing that had been taking place during the Second Intifada period of 2000-2005 wouldn’t have met that criterion. And indiscriminate attacks on civilians are also illegal even in wartime. (8)

The tone of Carter’s 2007 comments gives a feel for the kind of controversy his book provoked. It also is a good example of why he came to be widely regarded as the greatest ex-President of the US.

Notes:

(1) Levy: Israel not showing interest in a ceasefire deal for Gaza. Al Jazeera English YouTube channel 12/24/2024. <https://youtu.be/OSoOnX3Gjn4?si=I4_WGgC2qXsFK3yZ> (Accessed: 2025-02-01).

Levy, Gideon (2024): The Whole World Will Know: Israel Is Standing Behind Its War-criminal Army Officers. Haaretz 01/02/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025-01-02/ty-article-opinion/.premium/the-whole-world-will-know-israel-is-standing-behind-its-war-criminal-army-officers/00000194-2452-da14-adb7-767e42b40000?gift=e00d3339be0f4e3ab06b6e9053d451af> (Accessed: 2025-02-01).

(3) Kubovich, Yaniv (2024): 'No Civilians. Everyone's a Terrorist': IDF Soldiers Expose Arbitrary Killings and Rampant Lawlessness in Gaza's Netzarim Corridor. Haaretz 12/18/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-12-18/ty-article-magazine/.premium/idf-soldiers-expose-arbitrary-killings-and-rampant-lawlessness-in-gazas-netzarim-corridor/00000193-da7f-de86-a9f3-fefff2e50000> (Accessed: 2024-24-12).

(4) Elizur, Yoel (2024): 'When You Leave Israel and Enter Gaza, You Are God': Inside the Minds of IDF Soldiers Who Commit War Crimes Haaretz 12/23/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-12-23/ty-article-opinion/.premium/when-you-enter-gaza-you-are-god-inside-the-minds-of-idf-soldiers-who-commit-war-crimes/00000193-f2a4-dc18-a3db-fee62b540000?gift=63de938ff2144b6cab0a5fab7e32aff6> (Accessed: 2024-24-12).

(5) Pinkas, Alan (2024): Jimmy Carter Was Resented by Israel's Leaders for Holding a Mirror They Didn't want to look at. Haaretz 12/31/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2024-12-31/ty-article/.premium/jimmy-carter-was-resented-by-israels-leaders-for-holding-a-mirror-in-front-of-them/00000194-1c22-dc42-afbc-3ce7497b0000?gift=88570e18036a41baaea2d352bbeedd90> (Accessed: 2024-24-12).

(6) Jimmy Carter apologizes for ‘mistake’ in book: Defends viewpoints on Middle East. Brandies NOW 06/24/2024. <https://www.brandeis.edu/now/2008/january/cartervisit.html> (Accessed: 2025-02-01).

(7) Carter, Jimmy (2006): Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid, 213. New York: Simon & Schuster.

(8) Ben-Naftali, Orna & Gross, Aeyal (2007): The Second Intifada and After. In: Gutman R. & Rieff, D. & Gutman, R., Crimes of War 2.0: What the Public Should Know (revised 2nd edition). London: W.W. Norton.

Monday, December 30, 2024

Jimmy Carter’s public career

Since news organizations do draft obituaries long in advance, there will be plenty of information about Jimmy Carter and his legacy coming out.

My view of his Presidential Administration is mixed. But so far as I’m aware, he has been by far the best ex-President ever. He devoted his post-Presidential career promoting charitable work like building houses with Habitat for Humanity for people too poor to buy one. And also working with his Carter Center to encourage constructive international diplomacy and peaceful settlements of conflicts. The Carter Center provided important election-monitoring in countries that were struggling to secure democratic governance for themselves.

His positions in his post-Presidential period are symbolized for me by two books he published. One from 2005:


Carter was a Southern Baptist most of his life, though he eventually formally left the Southern Baptist Convention because it had so embraced rightwing social values that it celebrated war and the death penalty, while bitterly opposing women’s rights including the right to abortion. In that book, he explained that the endangerment to decent American – and honest Christian – values was coming from militarism and the Radical Right. And this was long before Donald Trump sent a violent, howling mob to attack the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in an attempted “auto-coup” to keep Trump in office even though he had lost the 2020 Presidential election.

In this book, he calls out the torture program at Guantanamo – which is still to this day open as a US-run prison, to the shame of every Administration since the one headed by Dick Cheney and George W. Bush. He also denounced the systematic torture of prisoners in Iraq under the orders of that grim Administration:
The terrible pictures from Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq have brought discredit on our country. This is especially disturbing, since U.S. intelligence officers estimated to the Red Cross that 70 to 90 percent of the detainees at this prison were held by mistake. Military officials reported that at least 108 prisoners have died in American custody in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other secret locations just since 2002, with homicide acknowledged as the cause of death in at least 28 cases. The fact that only one of these was in Abu Ghraib prison indicates the widespread pattern of prisoner abuse, certainly not limited to the actions or decisions of just a few rogue enlisted persons. ...

The superficial investigations under the auspices of the Department of Defense have made it obvious that no high-level military officers or government officials will be held accountable, but there is no doubt that their public statements and private directives cast doubt and sometimes ridicule on the applicability of international standards of human rights and the treatment of prisoners. [my emphasis]
He also denounced the “extraordinary rendition” program that was one of the ugliest symptoms of the depravity of the Cheney-Bush government:
Subsequent evidence revealed that despite previous denials … American leaders had adopted a supplementary policy of transferring prisoners to foreign countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Morocco, Jordan, and Uzbekistan, most of which have been condemned in our government's annual human rights reports for habitually using torture to extract information. Although opposed by the State Department, this practice has been approved at the top levels of U.S. government. It is known as "extraordinary rendition," and the official excuses are that the victims have been classified as "illegal enemy combatants" and that our military or CIA personnel "don't know for certain" that they will be tortured. Members of Congress and legal specialists estimate that 150 prisoners have been included in this exceptional program. The techniques of torture are almost indescribably terrible, including, as a U.S. ambassador to one of the recipient countries reported, "partial boiling of a hand or an arm," with at least two prisoners boiled to death. [my emphasis]
The de facto immunity that the officials responsible for that program received is a disgrace to the US justice system and, in particular, to the Obama Administration. Obama and his Attorney General Eric Holder never made a serious effort to perform their duty of making a serious criminal investigation on the architects of the torture program. This is one of the instances of elite immunity for criminal acts that set the stage for the January 6 coup attempt.

In that book, he also called out the disastrous direction of US Israel policy, and described the destructive role that the Christian Zionist Protestant fundamentalists that are a major piece of Trump’s constituency now had contributed to thoroughly irresponsible US policy in support of illegal acts and territorial annexations by Israel.

And he flagged the harmful nature of the civil liberties abuses empowered by the Cheney-Bush “Patriot Act.”

And he flagged the harmful nature of the civil liberties abuses empowered by the Cheney-Bush “Patriot Act.”

Carter really did take a liberal, social activist Christian view of the world and of politics. This is part of why I find the European usage of “political Islam” so awkward. Because it’s certainly possible to have religiously motivated concerns that don’t come married to an insistence on a state church or an official religion or suppression of dissenting religious beliefs. The American Christian nationalists also have a “political Christianity,” but it is very much a repressive, non-liberal one that does not respect the liberal-democratic notion of separation of church and state. But Carter did have a social and political outlook very much influenced by his Protestant Christian faith. Much the way that four-time California Gov. Jerry Brown has a social vision very much influenced by Catholic Christianity and by Zen Buddhism.

This following book of Carter’s from 2006 was a plea for a more practical and realistic view of Israel and the reality of its settlement policies.

He argued for a return to actively pursuing a two-state solution, which the Cheney-Bush and subsequent Presidential Administrations ignored. Carter described there the de facto state of apartheid in Israel and the occupied territories that had been developing.

Carter’s promotion as President of the peace process that produced the Camp David Accords of 1978, which led to the 1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, is widely credited with opening the way to a diplomatic approach that could have led to an independent Palestinian state. Critics at the time, like Democratic Sen. James Abourezk of South Dakota – the first Arab-American Senator, who passed away in 2023 – warned at the time that failure to include a settlement of the Palestinian questions, which the Camp David process essentially sidestepped, could lead to bad long-term consequences.

But Carter continued to actively push for such a settlement the rest of his life. Allan Brownfeld as part of a 2023 series on Carter’s legacy for the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs wrote:
Dedicated to peace and human rights around the world, Carter’s tireless efforts to bring Israel and Egypt together in a peace agreement during the 1978 negotiations at Camp David are widely viewed as the most consequential contribution any U.S. president has made toward Israel’s security since its founding. This represented the first personally negotiated peace agreement since Theodore Roosevelt successfully settled the 1904-05 Russo-Japanese War. Even Menachem Begin reluctantly agreed that Carter “had worked harder than our forefathers did in Egypt building the pyramids.”

Yet Carter was repaid for his success and for his commitment to both Israeli security and Palestinian rights with a consistent campaign of vilification by American Jewish leaders. Most of them never forgave him for the tenacity with which he pursued his vision of an evenhanded Middle East peace. [my emphasis] (1)
Deborah Lipstadt is an important Holocaust scholar who now works for the State Department. Her successful court fight with the notorious Holocaust denier David Irving was an important win for honest history. But her response to Carter’s Peace Not Apartheid book is indefensible:
When he wrote the book Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid, which became a New York Times best-seller in 2007, the attacks on Carter became brutal. Deborah Lipstadt, then a professor at Emory University, now Special State Department Envoy to Monitor and Combat Anti-Semitism, reviewed the book for The Washington Post and accused Carter of relying on “anti-Semitic stereotypes.” She charged that Carter “has repeatedly fallen back on traditional anti-Semitic canards. When David Duke spouts it, I yawn, when Jimmy Carter does, I shudder.”

At the time, the Anti-Defamation League’s Abraham Foxman called Carter “a bigot” and denounced him in paid newspaper advertisements around the country. Martin Peretz, publisher of The New Republic and an outspoken Zionist, called Carter a “Jew-hater” and “a jackass.” We could fill pages with the bitter assaults on Jimmy Carter by Zionist activists whose first charge against anyone who criticizes Israeli policy is “anti-Semitism.”
Lipstadt in her current role has been a staunch defender of the genocide that Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is currently pursuing in Gaza.

Foreign Policy as President

Carter took office in 1977 when there was strong public sentiment to move away from the kind of military interventionism that had led to the Vietnam disaster. It’s a sign of the ambiguity of Carter’s foreign policy that he campaigned in 1976 on a promise to reduce the number of US troops in South Korea. By 1980, he was campaigning on the fact that he had increased the number of troops there.

Carter’s Administration was very divided on its foreign policy course. Cyrus Vance, who served as Secretary of State from 1977 to 1980, argued for a less militarized and confrontational approach in foreign affairs. He was consistently opposed by National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski who took basically a hawkish/militarist approach.

On the most critical issue for American foreign policy, nuclear arms control, Carter successfully negotiated the SALT II Treaty with the Soviet Union, which was observed in practice even though it wasn’t ratified by the US Senate as a formal treaty.

It was during Carter’s Administration that the Iranian Revolution took place, which notoriously involved militant followers of the Ayatollah Khomeini taking over the American Embassy and holding US personnel hostage. Here, the Brzezinski hard line that Carter pursued in stubbornly backing the Shah, to the point of bringing him physically to the United States, served to aggravate the problems the Iranian Revolution caused for the US. It turned out to be a major reason for Carter’s loss to Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Another embarrassing moment in Carter’s foreign policy came after Vietnam’s incursion in January 1979 into Cambodia and its replacing of the grotesque, cultish Pol Pot dictatorship. The Carter Administration insisted on continuing to recognize the Pol Pot gang as Cambodia’s official representation at the United Nations even after the government was overthrown:
In the face of mounting evidence of Khmer Rouge atrocities, the U.S. government stayed quiet. After the debacle of the Vietnam War, few American politicians were willing to get reinvolved in Southeast Asia, and the government was not eager to examine its complex role in Cambodia's collapse. Not until April 1978 did President Jimmy Carter declare the Khmer Rouge "the worst violator of human rights in the world." (2)
The decision to continue recognizing the Pol Pot group as the formal government was arguably in line with conventional diplomatic practice. The government had been overthrown by a foreign invasion. In the context of that remarkably cruel Cambodian regime, that was an exceptionally awkward moment. Especially since Carter had made promotion of human rights a major theme of his Administration.

Carter approved a military incursion into Iran to try to rescue the hostages, a move with Vance opposed and Brzezinski supported. The US military just plain botched that mission and it became a huge political embarrassment for the Administration. The decision to launch that raid led to Vance’s resignation as Secretary of State. (3)

And, yes, there was heavy circumstantial evidence of an actual conspiracy on the part of the Reagan campaign to delay the release of the US hostages until after the 1980 election. That plan was almost certainly a factor that led the Reagan Administration to pursue the Iran-Contra arms sales, which became a major scandal for Reagan. Carter’s White House point man for Iran, Gary Sick explained that situation in his 1991 book, October Surprise. (4)

Another fateful decision in which Carter took the foreign policy course advocated by Brzezinski was to back the Brave Mujahideen Freedom Fighters (as they were known then) waging guerilla war against Soviet troops in Afghanistan. They later came to be known as Islamist jihadists. Osama bin Laden got his start in the jihadist business in Afghanistan. Since the Soviets did eventually leave, hawks have argued ever since that supporting the Islamic terrorists – uh, I mean the Brave Mujahideen Freedom Fighters – was decisive in bringing down the Soviet Union. And that idea also encouraged the notion that having a war of Ukrainians against Russia would be equally beneficial to American interests.

Brzezinski infamously evaluated the results: "What was more important in the world view of history? The Taliban or the fall of the Soviet Empire? A few stirred-up Muslims or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the Cold War?" As Rachel Bronson said in a 2003 statement prepared for the 9/11 Commission using that comment as an example, “American leaders were convinced that bringing down the Soviet Union was worth the costs of empowering religious radicals.” (5)

Carter’s Domestic Policies

As much of an icon as Carter became later to Democrats, it may take some effort to recall that the Democratic left and the labor unions were at best reserved about his policies. As a politically weakened candidate for renomination in 2000, he faced active challenges from Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown. Carter is often given blame (or credit, depending on one’s point of view) for initiating what is now familiarly called the “neoliberal” turn in American economic policy. Historian David Gibbs wrote on the occasion of Carter’s 100th birthday:
As he celebrates his 100th birthday on Tuesday, Jimmy Carter is known for many things: He is a white southerner who advocated racial integration and equality. He is a Sunday-school Bible teacher who also supports abortion rights. As an ex-president, he has mediated global conflicts and worked to eradicate disease. But Carter must also be remembered for something else: During his term as president, he inaugurated the neoliberal revolution in political economy. (6)
Michael Lind has even taken the quirky view that: “An epochal shift indeed took place -- but it happened in 1976, not 1980. The Age of Reagan should be called the Age of Carter, in politics and policy alike.” (7) The most generous spin I could put on that view is that it obscures more than it explains.

Broadly speaking, neoliberalism involved a turn away from welfare-state or social-democratic perspective toward deregulation of business, weakening of labor unions, privatization of public property, and conservative approaches to controlling inflation. I would argue that the most significant turn that Carter made in that regard was appointing Paul Volcker, Jr., as chair of the Federal Reserve. With housing prices rising sharply in urban areas in the 1970s, inflation was aggravated by an oil shortage resulting from a relatively small (4%) drop in Iranian oil production in the wake of the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which resulted in the much-dreaded “gas lines” at service stations. Volcker’s response was to drastically raise interest rates, thus exacerbating the recession of January-July 1980.

But Carter’s economic policy was not full-blown Reaganomics. It was during Carter’s term that the crackpot notion of “supply-side economics” took off among Republicans, representing one of the dumber manifestations of the neoliberal trends. The Carter Administration, however, took the problem of unemployment very seriously. He initiated an effective job-training program called CETA, which in that case stood for the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (not the current EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, also known as CETA).

Sean Byrnes writing for the social-democratic Jacobin has a more realistic perspective:
Though Carter achieved more than he is generally given credit for — and remains among the more decent men to have held the office — his presidency failed to bring about the fundamental transformation he sought. Instead, his term helped establish a far more dubious pattern: Democratic presidents with admirably ambitious policy agendas stymied by an inability to form a durable coalition or stem the erosion of their party’s support among the working and middle classes. (8)
And I can’t improve on Byrnes’ concluding comment. He argues that Carter started a trend among Democrats of “solutions-oriented politics,” but which lacked “substantive attempts to immediately improve the economic lives of voters by redistributing income” in the New Deal/Great Society tradition:
All of his Democratic successors in the Oval Office have fallen into much the same trap. Carter’s presidency did therefore prove transformational, just not in the way he intended. Those on the Left seeking to escape the pattern Carter established should look less to his presidency, and more to his post-presidency: an admirable, long, and dedicated effort to immediately improve and elevate the lives of those suffering from depravation, illness, and want. A president pursuing such an approach in office could be transformational indeed. [my emphasis]
But I also don’t want to slide into too-easy generalizations. For all his very real faults, especially in foreign policy, Joe Biden’s “industrial policy” economic approach, combined with active encouragement of labor organizing and an active anti-trust policy, really did represent a turn back toward the Great Society legacy that Carter’s Democratic critics in 1976 and 1980 were defending. (9) If the Democratic Party doesn’t want the country to have to stumble and bumble through decades of Trumpism, they need to go further and more consistently in the direction that Biden moved on economic policy.

At the very least, the publicity about Carter on the occasion of his passing and the constructive contrasts his example during and after his Presidency present to what we’ve endured in more recent decades will be an important reminder that there are better alternatives.

Notes:

(1) Brownfeld, Allan (2023) in Five Views - President Jimmy Carter’s Legacy. Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, May 2023. <https://www.wrmea.org/2023-may/jewish-community-smears-carter-with-charges-of-anti-semitism.html> (Accessed: 2024-30-12).

(2) Chronicle of Survival-1975-1979-Terror and Genocide. PBS Frontline World Pol Pot's Shadow Oct. 2002. <https://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/cambodia/tl03.html> (Accessed: 2024-30-12).

(3) Vance recounted his version in his memoir, Hard choices: Critical years in America's Foreign Policy (1983).

(4) Sick, Gary (1991): October Surprise: America's Hostages in Iran and the Election of Ronald Reagan. New York & Toronto: Times Books.

See also: Parry, Robert (1993): Trick Or Treason: The October Surprise Mystery. New York: Sheridan Square Press.

(5) Statement of Rachel Bronson to the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States July 9, 2003. National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. <https://9-11commission.gov/hearings/hearing3/witness_bronson.htm> (Accessed: 2024-30-12).

(6) Gibbs, David (2024): America’s First Neoliberal President. Compact 10/01/2024. <https://www.compactmag.com/article/americas-first-neoliberal-president/> (Accessed: 2024-30-12).

(7) Lind, Michael (2011): How Reaganism actually started with Carter. Salon 02/08/2011. <https://www.salon.com/2011/02/08/lind_reaganism_carter/> (Accessed: 2024-30-12).

(8) Byrnes, Sean (2024): Jimmy Carter Held the Door Open for Neoliberalism. Jacobin 12/29/2024. <https://jacobin.com/2024/12/jimmy-carter-obituary-neoliberalism-foreign-policy> (Accessed: 2024-30-12).

(9) Glass, Aurelia & Walter, Karla (2022): How Biden’s American-Style Industrial Policy Will Create Quality Jobs. Center for American Progress 10/27/2024. <https://www.americanprogress.org/article/how-bidens-american-style-industrial-policy-will-create-quality-jobs/> (Accessed: 2024-30-12).