Policing the ICE Gestapo paramilitary goons

The state and local governments in Minnesota are dealing with the serious misconduct of the ICE paramilitary that the Trump regime has sent there. (1)

The ugly and murderous conduct of the ICE Gestapo in Minneapolis has got me thinking more specifically about the authority that states and local governments may have for restraining criminal conduct on ICE’s part.

Despite the title having to do with Greenland, the first part of the following interview has former senior general Mark Hertling talking about the terror tactics being used by ICE. And he rightly says that their obvious goal is to provoke a violent reaction that they can then use as an excuse to declare martial law or something like it. (2) (Trump seems to think invoking the Insurrection Act would be the same as setting up martial law, but it isn’t.)

But he also notes that, no matter how much goodwill and peaceful civic dedication most people have, if the current violent and even murderous tactics of ICE continue the way they are going, it’s inevitable that someone somewhere will react violently. He also has some interesting memories of how the post-2003 Iraqi security forces stopped wearing masks and why.

And anyone who thinks they are not trying to recruit provocateurs should read up on COINTELPRO from the 60s and the feds’ tactics during the post-9/11 period. And those were pre-Trump times!

There has been speculation over the last year is what it might look like in the US if actual civil war conditions were reached. What would that look like? What it will not look like is some kind of Democratic Party armed militia rising up against the ICE Gestapo, because no such partisan militia exists. Nor anything like that in the form of some National Antifa Underground Army or such like.

Robert Reich’s recent weekly podcast noted the fact that the Trump regime has sent three thousand ICE goons to Minneapolis, a city which has a police force of around 600. (3)

The most hopeful approach is the one municipal police and county sheriffs are now starting to use and even openly announce, which is that when ICE goons break the law, as they do regularly now, the local forces will arrest them and charge them. And since it’s now clear that ICE has been heavily recruiting Proud Boy-like “patriot militia” types like the cop-killing thugs who stormed the Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021, there’s a good chance they will be doing more cop-killing. That is even more reason for local and state officials sooner rather than later to enforce the law against the militia goons who are breaking it.

Cops are there to enforce the law, not to break it (even though too many cops do). These ICE thugs are obviously operating on directives to terrorize local citizens, almost certainly as preparation for doing so on a wide scale on election days this year. On this matter, it really is “Support Your Local Police” time - and demand they do their jobs.

It’s important to remember that especially the recent hires among the ICE Gestapo are poorly trained in basic police conduct. It’s one thing for them to shoot an unarmed woman like Renee Good in the face with no warning. Dealing with armed and well-trained police is a whole different matter. And since ICE is reportedly planning to hire hundreds more goons in coming months, the average level of their professionalism will decline even further.

ProPublica just published a report on the use of deadly and banned chokeholds on people they attack. (4) If this goes on, there will be more people killed from this kind of abusive ICE practices:

An agent in Houston put a teenage citizen into a chokehold, wrapping his arm around the boy’s neck, choking him so hard that his neck had red welts hours later. A black-masked agent in Los Angeles pressed his knee into a woman’s neck while she was handcuffed; she then appeared to pass out. An agent in Massachusetts jabbed his finger and thumb into the neck and arteries of a young father who refused to be separated from his wife and 1-year-old daughter. The man’s eyes rolled back in his head and he started convulsing. ...

ProPublica found more than 40 cases over the past year of immigration agents using these life-threatening maneuvers on immigrants, citizens and protesters. The agents are usually masked, their identities secret. The government won’t say if any of them have been punished.

In nearly 20 cases, agents appeared to use chokeholds and other neck restraints that the Department of Homeland Security prohibits “unless deadly force is authorized.”

If the ICE Gestapo violently resist legitimate local and state law enforcement, then we could see some civil-war-type scenes. It won’t be states seceding from the federal Union 1860-61 style and forming a secessionist army.

But Trump might also be willing to declare martial law, in which case opposition to it would have to take some combination of states and localities enforcing the actual law, federal institutions like the Army refusing to obey illegal orders, and civic society actively protesting. Even something vaguely resembling the Wobblies’ dream of a nationwide general strike is not impossible to imagine.

But we shouldn’t let the Cabinet and Congress off the hook on their responsibilities. The Cabinet can invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump from office. The Congress can also impeach and remove the President, which would of course require Republican votes. The Democrats also have a responsibility to actively pursue such remedies.

Arresting people at random on the street with no legal cause or arrest warrant, shooting drivers in the face because an ICE thug just feels like it, sending armed masked goons into schools with no actual legal purpose - this stuff is seriously illegal, and the local and state police do have a duty to enforce the law.

That has bit of a "states rights" ring. But it's actually about the basic rule of law. Wearing a black mask and combat-style camouflage does not give anyone the right to illegally beat, tear-gas, assault or murder people. And their black masks certainly do not give ICE criminals the "absolute immunity" Vice President JD Vance says they have.

Reducing the ICE recruits' training from six months to 47 days because Trump is the 47th President pretty much tells us all we need to know about ICE professionalism.

Notes:

(1) Masters, Clay (2026): With limited political power, Minnesota Democrats navigate resistance to Trump. NPR 01/16/2026.<https://www.npr.org/2026/01/16/nx-s1-5678565/immigration-minnesota-democrats-navigate-resistance-to-trump> (Accessed: 2026-16-01).

(2) Taking Greenland Would Trigger a NATO Crisis (w/ Mark Hertling). The Bulwark YouTube channel 01/14/2026. <https://youtu.be/1-6wDWfrJHI?si=QX87aooeICKyoUGE> (Accessed: 2026-15-01).

(3) ICE: The American Gestapo. Robert Reich YouTube channel 01/17/2026. <https://youtu.be/ZVGTmdKoTME?si=Fu2cqe1qOcH2QpUR> (Accessed: 2026-17-01).

(4) Foy, Nicole and Funk, McKenzie (2026): We Found More Than 40 Cases of Immigration Agents Using Banned Chokeholds and Other Moves That Can Cut Off Breathing. ProPublica 01/13/2026. <https://www.propublica.org/article/videos-ice-dhs-immigration-agents-using-chokeholds-citizens> (Accessed: 2026-15-01).

Rogues gallery of the Nationalist International

Far-right parties that appeal to narrow nationalism and xenophobia seem on the face of it like the strangest bedfellows in politics. But there is a kind of Nationalist International of the kind of parties Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy refers to as the sort of politicians the Trump regime intends to promote in Europe.

And a number of those parties - including the Israeli Likud - and their leaders are endorsing the Hungarian authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán. The Austrian paper Der Standard reports on eleven of them, listed here with their countries and parties: (1)

• Santiago Abascal (Vox, Spain)
• Prime Minister Andrej Babiš (Ano, Czech Republic)
• Herbert Kickl (FPÖ, Austria)
• Marine Le Pen (National Rally/NR, France)
• Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (Fratelli d'Italia [Brothers of Italy], Italy)
• President Javier Milei (Libertzarian Party, Argentina)
• President Mateusz Morawiecki (PiS, Polen)
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanjahu (Likud, Israel)
• Matteo Salvini (Lega, Italien)
• Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić (SNS, Serbia)
• Alice Weidel (Alliance for Germany (AfD), Germany)

At this point, these are the Trumpistas of Europe. The Guardian reports:

Rightwing leaders from around the world have come together to endorse Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, hinting at the symbolism that the country’s elections hold for global far-right movements even as the populist leader lags in the polls.

A campaign video published online by Orbán this week includes endorsements from nearly a dozen leaders including Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Matteo Salvini, France’s Marine Le Pen and Germany’s Alice Weidel.

“Europe needs Viktor Orbán,” Weidel, a co-leader of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), tells viewers.

Le Pen, the former leader of France’s far-right National Rally party, piles praise on the leader who once described Hungary as a “petri dish for illiberalism”. “Thanks to leaders like Viktor Orbán, the camp of patriots and defenders of nations and sovereign peoples is achieving ever greater success in Europe,” she says. [my emphasis]

This is an entertaining image from the November 2025 edition of the German comic book Captain Berlin. The hero has a definite Captain America vibe to him. The cover shows Captain Berlin being shocked by a campaign poster for a candidate named Ilse von Blitzen, who bears a distinct resemblance to Alice Weidel, the current leader of the German far-right AfD party. His reactions is, “Oh, no! Not her!”

Notes:

(1) Sommavilla, Fabian (2026): Kickl, Le Pen, Weidel, Meloni, Netanjahu und "Hollywood-Legende" mit Wahlkampfhilfe für Orbán. Der Standard 12.01.2026. <https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000303803/kickl-le-pen-weidel-meloni-netanjahu-und-hollywood-legende-mit-wahlkampfhilfe-fuer-orban> (Accessed: 2026-13-01).

The curse of “both sides” journalism

The American “quality” press got stuck years ago in a style of reporting that stressed giving both sides of a dispute without passing judgment on their factual accuracy.,

The New York Times this report via its Austrian partner Der Standard reporting on the murder of Renee Nicole Good by an ICE agent. (1)

The story could have started out giving the background facts, like: There is widespread public outrage over the murder of a Minnesota woman by a masked ICE Gestapo goon who deliberately shot her in the face and killed her and the available evidence strongly indicates it was deliberate murder with no legitimate justification. (An Austrian paper would add that there is a presumption of innocence until the accused murderer is found guilty in court.)

Instead, the NYT story opens with these three paragraphs, with my strikeouts (in italics) and my comments in italics:

Mounting outrage over an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent’s killing [more accurately: apparent murder with no obvious legal or self-defensive motivate] of a woman in Minneapolis spilled into streets across the country Saturday, as crowds of protesters mobilized against what they called the excesses of the Trump administration’s mass deportation [more accurately: campaign of mass intimidation against citizens and voters in Democratic cities].

The "Ice Out for Good" campaign held demonstrations in small towns and major cities, including some that have been central targets of President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown. The protests came three days after an ICE agent in Minneapolis shot and killed Renee Nicole Good, a U.S. citizen at the wheel of a car, during an encounter in South Minneapolis.

Almost immediately, conflicting interpretations of the killing — which was captured in video from several angles — divided the country along ideological lines. State leaders in Minnesota described the ICE agent’s action as an unjustifiable use of lethal force against a civilian who was trying to leave the scene [a characterization strongly supported by the available video evidence]. For their part, Trump administration officials claimed that Good was a left-wing domestic terrorist who tried to run over the ICE agent, and that the agent acted in self-defense. [However, Trump officials have offered no clear evidence whatsoever for those claims.]

The Times proceeds to say, “Almost immediately, conflicting interpretations of the killing — which was captured in video from several angles — divided the country along ideological lines.” Without adding any appropriate clarification that the Trump version is backed by no available supporting evidence.

Gee, what happened? Well, this side says X happened and the other side says Y happened. Who can tell which side is right? We’re just reporters, we can’t bother to explain the axtual state of the evidence available to the public.

Notes:

(1) Hippensteel, Chris (2026): Anti-ICE Protests Spread Nationwide. New York Times/Der Standard 01/11/2026. <https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000303588/anti-ice-protests-spread-nationwide> (Accessed: 2026-11-01).

A mini-explainer about Greenland’s status as a part of Denmark

There is a famous quotation apocryphally attributed to the California writer Ambrose Bierce: “Wars are God’s way of teaching Americans geography.” (With various versions of itself.)

I was reminded of that in the various media discussions about Greenland. “By what right does Denmark assert control over Greenland?” asked Trump’s Joseph Goebbels clone Stephen Miller recently. (1)

In the Miller-Goebbels world, reality including history is whatever cult leader Trump says it is at any given moment.

Actual information about Greenland is not that hard to find. Chatham House’s Marc Weller gives a brief historical sketch of Greenland’s affiliation to Denmark, which claims to have administered the island since 1721. Norway disputed Denmark’s claim to colonial control over Greenland early in the last century. As Weller notes, “the Permanent Court of International Justice ruled in 1933 that Norway’s Foreign Minister Nils Claus Ihlen had given up any claim to Greenland. He had declared in 1919 that the Danish claim ‘would be met with no difficulties on the part of Norway’.” (2)

The UN recognized in 1954 that Greenland had “become an integral part of the Danish Realm with a constitutional status equal to that of other parts of Denmark” based on changes put in place the previous year. (3) And, as Weller writes:

Denmark ... has progressively increased the level of self-government for Greenland, first in the Home Rule Act of 1979 and then in the Self-Government Act of 2009. This latter instrument was approved in a Greenland referendum by a majority of 75.5 per cent.

The Self-Government Act transfers virtually all powers of governance to the Greenland local authorities, with the exception of defence, monetary policy and external relations. In fact, Greenland can even conclude treaties independently of Denmark. However, this does not extend to agreements affecting its status within Denmark. [my emphasis]

Miller-Goebbel‘s view, of course, is: Trump don’t need no stinking international law. Trump want Greenland so Trump take it!! (The Incredible Hulk theory of international law.)

Encyclopedia Britannica provides a brief quick history of Greenland, though Stephen Miller probably assumes Britannica is just some woke commie propaganda outlet: (4)

The particular status of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark is a little odd compared to how most people are used to thinking about sovereign countries. But it also doesn’t take a PhD in international law to understand the quirks, either.

Denmark is a kingdom, a monarchy ruled by King Frederik X since January of 2024. Greenland is a self-governing province. Its population is small, just under 57,000 people, a number which Goebbels-Miller in the clip above cites as 30,000. (Math, apparently is nothing but some “DEI” obsession in his eyes.

Greenland is a self-governing autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, which has a parliamentary government. The Danish parliament is called the Folketag, which has 179 member including two members elected by Greenlanders and one from the Faroe Islands.

The Nordic Co-operation website provides this bullet-point summary:

Greenland is not a member of the EU but has a special fisheries agreement and was accepted as one of the overseas countries and territories with special association with the EU.

• National day: 21 June (longest day of the year)
• Form of government: Self-government, within the kingdom of Denmark
• [Provincial] Parliament: Inatsisartut (31 seats)
• EU membership: From 1 January 1973 to 1 February 1985
• NATO membership: Since 1949 (as part of Denmark’s membership)
• Head of state: King Frederik X
• Head of government (since April 2025): Jens-Frederik Nielsen (5)

But, as noted above, Norway’s king and Folketag are in charge of defense, foreign relations, and currency policy. One oddity is that Greenland can conclude treaties with other countries on its own as long as they don’t affect its legal relationship with Denmark. Although that could be seen as analogous to a US state making a pact with a foreign government, which would not formally and legally be a treaty.

The Self-Government Act of 2009 mentioned above allows Greenland to declare itself an independent nation on the basis of an independence referendum. If a majority votes for such a referendum, the Danish Folketag would have final say on whether Greenland’s independence would be recognized.

Greenland is specifically covered by the NATO mutual-defense treaty, which means any forcible occupation of the island by the US or any other nation would be formal grounds for invoking the collective self-defense clause against the invader. Since Denmark is not technically part of the EU, such an invasion would not necessarily trigger the EU mutual-defense clause.

Huw Paige has a useful summary of the Trump regime’s recent posturing over Greenland:

Arguments [from the Trump Administration] of security threats around Greenland from Russia and China are illogical. Russia has no great presence in the vicinity of Greenland, and China’s motivations in the Arctic center around the reduction in shipping time and costs offered by the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast. In any case, China has backed off far more in Greenland in recent years than it has in, for example, Alaska. (6)

Notes:

(1) Miller asserts Trump administration’s position is Green should be part of the US. ABC Chicago YouTube channel, n/d, <https://www.youtube.com/shorts/SdhZ9vKGNq0> (Accessed: 2026-12-01).

(2) Weller, Marc (2026): Who owns Greenland? Chatham House 01/09/2026. <https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/who-owns-greenland> (Accessed: 2026-12-01).

(3) UN Resolution 849 (IX)m 1954. <https://docs.un.org/en/a/res/849(IX)> (Accessed: 2026-12-01).

(4) Who Governs Greenland? Encyclopaedia Britannica YouTube channel 04/04/2025. <https://youtu.be/u1Q6PZDe9II?si=ygRdK5kWK8pIGUYs> (Accessed: 2026-12-01).

(5) Facts about Greenland, n/d. <https://www.norden.org/en/information/facts-about-greenland> (Accessed: 2026-12-01).

(6) Paige, Huw (2026): Donald Trump’s Greenland Obsession Is Growing More Dangerous. Jacobin 01/09/2026. <https://jacobin.com/2026/01/trump-greenland-denmark-nato-imperialism> (Accessed: 2026-12-01).

Defending against the United States

This is a roughly 45-minute discussion in two parts about Trump’s foreign policy on Venezuela from the MeidasTouch Legal AF “Court of History” podcast with Sidney Blumenthal, and Sean Wilentz (one of my favorite historians) and Jonathn Winer. All three legitimately qualify as “old white guys.” But they are considerably more in touch with reality than Trumpista freaks like Stephen Miller. (1)

Part 1:

Part 2:

Winer’s comments are a reminder that having tremendous oil reserves has been a big blessing and a big curse for Venezuela. An economy so heavily dominated by the oil business struggles with chronic problems, such as strong incentives to neglect less lucrative sectors of the economy (including the public sector) and big temptations for official corruption.

Winer had direct experience at the State Department with US-directed regime change in Haiti, which he discusses here and which like most such operations did not work out well.

The discussion also focuses on what a bonkers claim it is that the (officially asserted) US control of Venezuela “will pay for itself.” And of course Trump’s claim that the US will somehow reap enormous financial benefits from Venezuelan oil is ludicrous in the short or medium term. And profits for oil corporations will depend on their making large-scale, long-term investments. Which at the moment they have little incentive to und,032222222ertake, at least not without massive US governmental subsidies of some kind.

And in another current crisis deliberately generated by the Trump 2.0 regime, the European nations who are technically still NATO allies of the US are working quietly but urgently on how to respond to US military aggression against other NATO allies, with Denmark/Greenland being the most immediate challenge.

Politico EU reports on current developments:

European Union Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has said the bloc should consider establishing a standing military force of 100,000 troops and overhaul the political processes governing defense.

Faced with Russian aggression and the U.S. shifting its focus away from Europe and threatening Greenland, Kubilius argued for a “big bang” approach to re-imagining Europe’s common defense.

“Would the United States be militarily stronger if they would have 50 armies on the States level instead of a single federal army,” he said at a Swedish security conference on Sunday. “Fifty state defence policies and defense budgets on the states level, instead of a single federal defense policy and budget?” [my emphasis] (2)

How to include Britain in a close military alliance without Britain being part of the European Union is a major political and structural issue in changing European defense policies to defend against the US as well as Russia. But international alliances in the face of perceived common threats is hardly a new thing in the world.

Notes:

(1) Trump WALKS Himself into NIGHTMARE Scenario. Legal AF YouTube channel. Part 1 (01/10/2026): https://youtu.be/cgf7OrP-oo8?si=RW4AbM0PGb2yX2FO> Part 2 (01/11/2026): <https://youtu.be/mmvlL_rYsaI?si=yCijfbNMA3xRShUw> (Accessed: 2026-12-01).

(2) Stanley-Smith, Joe (2026): EU may need 100,000-strong army, says defense commissioner. Politico EU 01/12/2026. <https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-needs-100000-strong-army-defense-commissioner-andrius-kubilius-military-overhaul/> (Accessed : 2026-12-01).

Peace President Trump is on a roll. A bad one.

Anne Applebaum discusses the current status of US-European relations in a podcast from The Bulwark. (1)

Anne Applebaum is a historian and political commentator. Some of her specific perspectives are too conservative for my taste. But she is an insightful analyst on issues of liberal democracy and how autocratic movements undermine it. She makes it clear that she speaks for herself in her public appearances. But she has also been married for decades to Radosław Tomasz "Radek" Sikorski, the current Foreign Minister of Poland’s current center-right, pro-democracy government.

The Bulwark is a non-Trump conservative website, a successor to the neoconservative Weekly Standard.

It's a favorite cliché of American pundits and especially rightwingers to mock Europe as being divided and weak. But what we are seeing right now is Europe adjusting to the new world in which the US is no longer the kind of reliable ally it was for most of the post-World War II period. And they understand that the US under Trump is an actual threat to European security. European foreign ministers won’t be talking about it in the blowhard way Trump does. But they are developing security arrangement appropriate to the Trumpista foreign policy.

Jonah Valdez describes the current situation:

Though Trump campaigned on the promise of ending foreign wars, even before the attack on Venezuela, his second term has been defined by a ruthless and interventionist approach.

He has already ordered military strikes in Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria and Yemen. Before abducting Maduro, the U.S. military attacked a Venezuelan port, and killed more than 100 civilians in bombings in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean. In addition, Trump continues to arm Israel as it violates the ceasefire with Hamas, grinding the genocide in Gaza into a third year. (2)

Mere hours before the U.S. bombed Venezuela on Saturday, Trump threatened to attack Iran over its violent crackdowns on protesters, writing on social media that the U.S. is “locked and loaded and ready to go.”

And since carrying out Venezuela raid, the Trump administration has taken aim at Cuba and Colombia, hinted at intervention in Mexico, renewed annexation aspirations in Greenland, and reiterated threats to Iran. [my emphasis] (2)

In a book looking at some of the more “highbrow” Trumpistas in a chapter of her new book Furious Minds: The Making of the MAGA New Right, Laura Field points to an unappreciated aspect of Trump’s foreign policy ideology. (Although calling it an “ideology” may make it sound more sophisticated than it is.)

On an abstract level the dynamic goes something like this: American conservatism, at its ideological core, tends to be isolationist, socially traditionalist, and devoted to small government. This was the basic character of what was called the “Old Right”—which describes the conservatism of the first half of the twentieth century. (The libertarian thinker Murray Rothbard called the Old Right “a coalition of fury and despair against the enormous acceleration of Big Government brought about by the New Deal.”) When conservatives win elections and have to govern, however, this ideological core has to soften: They make compromises and tend to moderate, gradually calcifying into a more centrist, power-wielding “establishment.” …

Barry Goldwater’s movement in the late 1950s and early 1960s took this shape—i.e., of an extremist flank accusing older conservatism of weakness and betrayal, and claiming that they, the true believers, could do a better job. Something similar happened with Pat Buchanan and the Paleoconservatives in the 1990s, and then with Newt Gingrich and with the Tea Party, too. To the extent that such efforts succeed, the party shifts rightward. And often the rhetoric ratchets up: To maintain the affections of the movement, the true believers become more hardened and uncompromising, their rhetoric more militant and violent. (pp. 11-12) [my emphasis]

The brand of far-right anti-interventionism tends to be a continuation of Old Right isolationism. Rhetorically, it tends to be skeptical of foreign interventions. But when we look at its policy orientation, it not about avoiding “foreign entanglements.” It’s about applying a militaristic foreign policy with a complete contempt for international law and for what Democrats and whatever non-Trumpist conservatives are still out there still call “the rules-based international order.”

One of my favorite examples of this often-convoluted perspective is a book from an author who had identified with the New Left criticism of US imperialism in the 1960s and early 1970s but was repositioning himself as rightwing-friendly: Prophets on the Right: Profiles of Conservative Critics of American Globalism (1975) by Ronald Radosh.

Former President Herbert Hoover also wrote a lenghty isolationist treatise published after his death, Herbert Hoover’s Secret History of the Second World War and Its Aftermath (2011).

Tucker Carlson recently scolded the British rightwinger Piers Morgan over what Tucker sees as the dastardly British intervention in the Second Worth War. (3) This kind of fascist-friendly perspective is the core foreign policy outlook of the Trumpistas.

And, of course, Trump’s political mentor was Roy Cohn, New York City mob lawyer and hardcore Old Right ideologue. He was celebrated for the dubious prosecution of Julius and Ethel Rosenberg and served as the chief counsel for Joe McCarthy’s Senate witchhunt committee. Trump’s militaristic isolationist nationalism comes straight out of the Old Right ideological swamp:

Cohn had many high-profile clients, including several organized-crime bosses, New York Yankees owner George Steinbrenner, and the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of New York. Cohn also served as a lawyer for popular New York City nightclub Studio 54, which he was known to frequent. Notably, Cohn also defended Donald Trump and his father, Fred Trump, against charges of racial discrimination in their apartment rentals in 1973. (4)

Trump likes to drop bombs. And take bribes from foreign leaders. And to make a dramatic show for the news. But global foreign policy strategy? Forget it. We’ve seen that over the past year in his incoherent, bumbling diplomacy over the Russia-Ukraine War.

The German Green Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Sergey Lagodinsky writes in Euronews about Trump’s threats to Denmark/Greenland appearing under the eye-catching headline, “EU troops might be needed to stop a US showdown in Greenland.”

To counter this scenario, European troops, Danish or otherwise, should be positioned in Greenland in advance. This would raise the threshold for presenting Europe with accomplished facts on the ground.

Second, clarity about consequences is essential. No one believes a war between the US and the EU is desirable or winnable.

But a military move against the EU would have devastating consequences for defence cooperation, markets, and global trust in the United States — not just in an administration, but in the country itself. Preparing a list of consequences is grim but necessary. (5)

Notes:

(1) Anne Applebaum: Europe Is Preparing for an America That Turns Hostile-The Bulwark Podcast 01/10/2026. <https://youtu.be/2tw9_2ltdRU?si=_EFqSlg-GO2wlwB9> (Accessed: 2026-06-01).

(2) Valdez, Jonah (2026): The List Countries Trump Is Threatening With War Keeps Growing. The Intercept 01/06/2026. <https://theintercept.com/2026/01/06/trump-wars-venezuela-colombia-cuba-iran/> (Accessed: 2026-06-01).

(3) Tucker Carlson CLASHES With Piers Morgan Over WW2, State Of GREAT BRITAIN. The Hill YouTube channel 12/01/2025. <https://youtu.be/2Ut6Quzxgfc?si=kug13oGkGAZX1ek9> (Accessed: 2026-10-01).

(4) Rosenfeld, Jordana. "Roy Cohn". Encyclopedia Britannica 11/28/2025, <https://www.britannica.com/biography/Roy-Cohn> (Accessed: 2026-10-01).

(5) Euronews 09.01.2026. <https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/01/09/eu-troops-might-be-needed-to-stop-a-us-showdown-in-greenland> (Accessed: 2026-10-01).

Trump has an affordability idea – or at least wants to sound like he does

There’s nothing Donald Trump can’t screw up. And I’m sure this will be another one.

But for whatever reason, he stumbled back into populist mode this week and proposed something that on its face is a good idea and, if handled right as an issue, could be a very popular one. CNBC reports:

President Donald Trump said the U.S. should bar large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, arguing that corporate ownership has helped push housing further out of reach for everyday Americans.

“For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing the right thing, but now, because of the Record High Inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress, that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans,” Trump said in a Truth Social post Wednesday.

“It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations,” he added. [my emphasis] (1)

My guess is that he is responding to the affordability issue which Zohran Mamdani made so popular by his successful run for New York City Mayor.

CNBC immediately went into lobbyist mode in the video accompanying the article by suggesting this would hurt “mom-and-pop” investors in residential real estate.

We need to remember the TACO rule, “Trumpp Always Chickens Out,” which may wind up applying to this. But at least we get to see a short-term dip in the stocks of some of the financial vultures:

Invitation Homes, which is the largest renter of single-family homes in the country, tumbled 6%. Shares of Blackstone, an investing firm that owns and rents single-family homes, dropped more than 5%. Private equity firm Apollo Global Management also declined over 5%.

The national median existing single-family home price was $426,800 in the third quarter of 2025 after hitting a record high of $435,300 in the summer, according to the National Association of Realtors. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently at 6.19%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Blackstone was the largest private-equity owner of apartments in the U.S. with more than 230,000 units, according to data from the Private Equity Stakeholder Project released last year. Blackstone in recent years has spent billions acquiring real estate companies such as Tricon Residential, American Campus Communities and AIR Communities. [my emphasis]

Notes:

(1) Li, Yun (2026);Trump says U.S. to ban large investors from buying homes. CNBC 01/07/12026. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/trump-housing-affordability.html> (Accessed: 2026-08-01.

The ICE murder of Renee Nicole Good

Rick Perlstein on Facebook calls our attention to the fact that the kind of disinformation, scorn, and callousness that have been actively pimpled by the post-Reagan rightwing media world continue to be an essential part of the Trumpista cult. (1)

Dave Neiwert, one of the best-informed journalists about the American far right, commented on Rick’s post:

This is what 30 years of Fox News and its Limbaugh-style intentional demonization of over half of the nation for the sake of creating corporate profit has wrought. The face of the ICE murderer is the face of hatred concocted by a lying media system designed to divide the nation for the sake of hollowing out democracy in order to replace it with a kleptocratic oligarchy.

Whenever democratic control is restored to the federal government, ICE is going to have to be thoroughly reformed, purged of assassins and murderers, and ICE officers required to meet at least the training and competence level of major urban police departments.

If the next Democratic President approaches the ICE problem like Joe Biden talked about the Black Lives Matter criticism of murderous cops – “fund, fund, fund the police” in Biden’s phrase, the prospect of getting back even to a pre-Trump level of democracy could take decades.

Cleaning up dirty police departments is nothing new in the US. Oakland (2) and Los Angeles are California cities whose police had to be restrained by federal intervention in order to clean up corruption and violent misconduct by rogue police departments. And there are other examples in other states, as well. It’s not an easy process. But a federal government that is willing to act responsibly to restrain lawless municipal police can fix a lot of problems.

There are more options than one way for reforming ICE. But some things are obvious, like strict training and conduct requirements with some kind of extended supervision analogous to Justice Department or court oversight of rogue municipal police departments. And the Democrats should not do their typical hiding-under-the-covers act, i.e., “No, no, we can’t prosecute ICE murderers, we can’t cut their budget, and we have to frame any criticism of ICE misdeeds and even killings in the context of how much we love and respect the law-breaking ICE goon squads.”

There is good reason to separate U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) from Homeland Security. Having it under Homeland Security – a creepy name for an agency in a democracy – inevitably leads to seeing immigration and refugees as a national danger in themselves.

Heather Cox Richardson discusses the recent Minneapolis murder Renee Nicole Good and its implications in the Trumpian process of implementing, well, fascism. Beginning at 7:40 in the video:

Notes:

(1) Rick Perlstein, Facebook 01/08/2026. (Accessed: 2026-09-01).

(2) Two reporters, Ali Winston and Darwin BondGraham, have done a book about a crime ring that operated inside the Oakland Police Department that was known by the Ku Klux Klan-like name of The Riders: The Riders Come Out at Night: Brutality, Corruption and Cover Up in Oakland (2023).

(3) Politics Chat, January 8, 2026. Heather Cox Richardson YouTube channel 01/08/2026. <https://www.youtube.com/live/CQPOHCoTbgE?si=kmwdQQYbU-npy9A9> (Accessed: 2026-09-01).

What is Europe prepared to do to defend Denmark and Greenland from the US?

The regime-decapitation the US just carried out in Venezuela now makes the question more urgent of what Europe (and also Canada, which is a NATO ally) if the US carries out a blatant and hostile military takeover of Greenland, which is part of the nation of NATO ally and EU member Denmark.

I found myself posting a note yesterday saying that the US seizing Greenland militarily and claiming it as a colonial territory of the US would give European countries a big new push to unite to defend against the US as well as against Russia.

Despite the various controversies within NATO like that around the Iraq War, the perceived threat from the USSR and then Russia held the alliance together. Given the arsenals of nuclear missiles especially in the US and the USSR/Russia, there was an objectively real threat there – and there still is. And the 1989-2014 period looks more than ever like a period of major missed opportunities.

But how NATO could survive its most powerful member invading and seizing territory from Denmark is really hard to imagine. And the European powers aren’t as feckless as the Trumps and the JD Vances of the world imagine them to be. The closest we’ve come before to a war between two NATO member states were the clashes in Cyprus in the 1970s between forces backed by Greece and Türkiye, respectively, including the establishment of the Turkish Federated State of Cyprus. Discussions mediated by the UN over the division of Cyprus continue to this day, with no immediate resolution in sight. (1)

It’s hard to see how European countries can simply tiptoe diplomatically around the US threat to Denmark, which Trump renewed after the seizure of Venezuela’s head of government, Maduro. (2) And the Trump 2.0 regime continues its reality-TV approach to threatening Denmark:

Just hours after the US military operation in Venezuela, the rightwing podcaster Katie Miller – the wife of Stephen Miller, Donald Trump’s powerful deputy chief of staff for policy – posted on X a map of Greenland draped in the stars and stripes with the caption: “SOON.”

Trump himself told the Atlantic magazine on Sunday: “We do need Greenland, absolutely.”

Miller’s threat to annex the mineral-rich territory, which is part of the Nato alliance, drew outrage from Denmark and Greenland.

Greenland’s prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, called the post “disrespectful”. “Relations between nations and peoples are built on mutual respect and international law – not on symbolic gestures that disregard our status and our rights,” he wrote on X. (3)

Despite the caution that European leaders are understandably trying to practice in regard to the US, issued a statement that focused on Denmark’s sovereignty, Denmark’s government posted this joint statement on X

Statement by President Macron of France, Chancellor Merz of Germany, Prime Minister Meloni of Italy, Prime Minister Tusk of Poland, Prime Minister Sánchez of Spain, Prime Minister Starmer of the United Kingdom and Prime Minister Frederiksen of Denmark on Greenland. [my emphasis]

That includes Europe’s two nuclear powers (Britain and France) and the country with its six biggest conventional armies: Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Poland. I’m just sayin’. It is what it is.

Arctic security remains a key priority for Europe and it is critical for international and transatlantic security.

NATO has made clear that the Arctic region is a priority and European Allies are stepping up. Wc and many other Allies have increased our presence, activities and investments, to keep the Arctic safe and to deter adversaries. The Kingdom of Denmark – including Greenland - is part of NATO.

Security in the Arctic must therefore be achieved collectively, in conjunction with NATO allies including the United Stales, by upholding the principles of the UN Charter, including sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders. These are universal principles, and we will not stop defending them. [my emphasis] (4)

Denmark in October announced their intent to buy more US fighter jets. It also announced their intent to purchase “two new Arctic ships, maritime patrol planes, drones and early warning radar” and that “a new Arctic command headquarters will be set up in the Greenlandic capital, Nuuk, alongside a new military unit under Joint Arctic Command in Greenland.” (5)

Trump’s personal volatility and the evident deterioration in his mental condition certainly don’t help in this situation. He obviously looks for reality-TV moments, like declaring mission accomplished in Venezuela at the very beginning of the current intervention by the US there, which the Orange Anomaly describes as the US now running the country. To use an old Southern expression, “That ole boy just ain’t right.” This means in practice that working out complicated international arrangements over hotly contested issues just isn’t something he seems to be capable of doing.

As I’m writing this, we’re only in Day 4 of the Peace President’s perfect intervention in Venezuela. It’s exceptionally unlikely to be as smooth a process as the Trumpista Administration expects it to be. We’re in something like the pulling-down-Saddam’s-statue-in-Baghdad stage of this intervention. To recall, the day after that glorious event was went major looting broke out in Baghdad, the first major signal that the Iraq-will-be-a-cakewalk claims on the neocons began to quickly disintegrate.

And, thinking back for a moment on the Wilsonian view of cynical Old World politics, I’m sure that every foreign ministry in Europe is thinking that the more of a mess Venezuela becomes for the US, the less likely it is that Trump would be fool enough to invade Denmark/Greenland. I’m not sure any of them can do much to make it more of a problem for the US than the Venezuelans themselves will make it. But for all their problems, the European powers have never been quite the bumbling nincompoops that US neocons and MAGA isolationists like to imagine them to be.

For The Guardian’s editorial board, the initial European responses to Trump invading Venezuela and kidnapping its President along with his wife was pretty weak tea:

The initial reaction of European leaders to Donald Trump’s illegal military intervention in Venezuela was not only weak, it also had the briefest of shelf lives. Refusing on Sunday to condemn the attack as a breach of international law, European Union member states called hopefully for “a negotiated, democratic, inclusive and peaceful solution to the crisis, led by Venezuelans”. The delusional nature of that response was laid bare as Mr Trump told reporters the same day: “We’re in charge.”

So much for the restoration of democracy. The US president also repeated threats of further military action, should the repressive regime left behind when Nicolás Maduro was seized fail to do Washington’s bidding. As Mr Trump’s marginalising of the Nobel prize-winning opposition figurehead María Corina Machado illustrated early on, the will of Venezuelans is not on his list of priorities. Operation Absolute Resolve was about exercising raw power to dominate a sovereign nation, and controlling Venezuela’s future oil production. [my emphasis] (6)

The editorial goes on to observe that the restrained official comments were understandable because European democracies are trying to keep Trump “on side” as much as possible on the Russia-Ukraine War. “But unchecked and unchallenged, “America first” expansionism is becoming a geopolitical menace in its own right.”

And it ends on the ominous note:

Regime change in Caracas came weeks after the publication of a bellicose national security strategy that pledged to “restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere”. Colombia and Cuba have now been put on notice, and in Denmark, so has a Nato ally. With Washington in the vanguard, a dangerous new world order is forming at pace [i.e., quickly]. Within it, Europe urgently needs to speak up for its values, while building the capacity to defend its own interests. [my emphasis]

Notes:

(1) Reuters 12/16/2025. UN envoy hopeful on Cyprus, says multi-party summit premature. <https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-envoy-hopeful-cyprus-says-multi-party-summit-premature-2025-12-16/> (Accessed: 2026-04-01).

(2) Hayden, Jones (2026): Denmark PM bristles at Trump’s ‘need’ for Greenland after US strikes on Venezuela. Politico EU 01/04/2026. <https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-maga-post-greenland-donald-trump-us-politics-venezuela/> (Accessed: 2026-05-01).

(3) Cole, Deborah (2026): US attack on Venezuela raises fears of future Greenland takeover. Guardian 06/04/2026. <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/04/greenland-denmark-us-venezuela-nicolas-maduro-donald-trump> (Accessed: 2026-04-01).

(4) https://x.com/Statsmin/status/2008498610263257368

(5) Lau, S. & Aeberhard, D. (2025): Denmark to boost Arctic defence with new ships, jets and HQ. BBC News 10/11/2025. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy9n790j878o> (Accessed: 2026-04-01).

(6) The Guardian view on Europe’s response to ‘America first’ imperialism: too weak, too timid. Guardian 01/05/2026. <https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jan/05/the-guardian-view-on-europes-response-to-america-first-imperialism-too-weak-too-timid> (Accessed: 2026-06-01).

Peace President Trump’s Venezuela … takeover?

According to the Trump 2.0 reality-TV show the world saw on Saturday, the initial news from Venezuela makes it sound like the still-existing government in Caracas headed by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez hasn’t yet gotten the memo that they are now a colonial government working for Donald Trump. The Argentinian daily Página/12 reports that a non-trivial number of Venezuelans appear to be in more of a “¡No pasarán!” mode in relation to the new colonial status (according to DJT) of their country.

The Vice President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, confirmed Nicolás Maduro as the only president of the country on Saturday, after his capture by the government of Donald Trump in the early hours of the day [Jan. 3]. At the same time, in multiple parts of Venezuela, citizens mobilized to denounce the attack perpetrated as part of the [US] kidnapping operation and to demand the proof of life of the president and his wife, Cilia Flores, who arrived in New York after being captured by U.S. militias [Special Forces].

In a press conference from the Miraflores Palace, Delcy Rodríguez declared: "There is only one president of this country and his name is Nicolás Maduro Moros." She also described the capture operation as "an illegitimate and illegal kidnapping" and called for the immediate release of Maduro and the First Lady. [emphasis in original] (1)

The Independent’s Sam Kiley warns that lots of things could go really badly in what looks like a regime-change operation with no actual plan for the new regime, e.g., who will nominally be in charge as Trump’s viceroy government. Or whatever it is that he and Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth may actually have in mind. (2)

Kiley takes a bit of a cheap shot at European leaders, “In Nato there will be horror. But one can be sure that the supine grovelling that has characterised the behaviour of Nato’s leadership towards Trump and Hegseth will continue.” The public diplomatic “grovelling” will likely continue because Europe (including Britain) is urgently focusesd on forming defense plans that don’t depend on the NATO structure that has always been dominated by the US.

And European leaders are very aware that the US Peace President has been threatening to seize Greenland, which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, to be controlled by the US. Focusing on deterring – and preparing to respond to – an attempted US seizure of Greenland will take priority over diplomatic protests over Venezuela. But that threat to Denmark also gives European leaders incentive to be careful about sounding like they endorse the Trump team’s project to turn Venezuela into a colony. As Kiley puts it in explaining Europe’s initial diplomatic caution:

Doing otherwise would be to acknowledge that Donald Trump has swung America first from being a friend, then to being an unreliable ally, and now, in the dawn of 2026, Trump’s America is a threat.

He said he would attack Venezuela’s mainland, and he has.

His claim to be knocking over a narco-terrorist state that has exported vast quantities of opiates to the US, and killed hundreds of thousands of its citizens, is nonsense. Opiates get into the US from Mexico, not Venezuela.

And he rightly warns:

As a premise for regime change and invasion, it is as false as the claims that Saddam Hussein was making a nuclear weapon. The invasion of that nation set off decades of pain and murder, terror and mayhem, and gave birth to Isis. It also tore at the fabric of Western democracies, as some ripped up ethics and their own laws to hunt down alleged terrorists. [my emphasis]

Latin American leaders that are led by people who are not Trump toadies like Argentine President Javier Milei are taking the threat very seriously. Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum (whose country Trump has also threatened to invade militarily), Brazil’s Lula de Silva, and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro (also threatened with military aggression by Trump) have all condemned the US kidnapping of Venezuela’s Maduro. They are responding to the clear violation of Venezuela’s sovereignty and international law, not endorsing Maduro’s authoritarian type of rule. (It’s worth recalling that Maduro was first legitimately elected as Venezuela’s President and the rightwingers’ characterization of his predecessor Hugo Chávez as a dictator is frivolous.)

[Former Mexican President AMLO (Andrés Manuel López Obrador)] he reappeared this Saturday to warn that neither Simon Bolivar nor Abraham Lincoln would accept the United States acting as a "world tyranny," and affirmed that his libertarian convictions prevent him from remaining silent in the face of what he described as an attack on Venezuelan sovereignty. "President Trump: don't indulge in self-complacency or listen to the sirens' song. To hell with the hawks; you have the capacity to act with practical judgment," AMLO said on his X account. (3)

AMLO was being generous even there in his suggestion that Trump has “the capacity to act with practical judgment.”

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose country Trump has threatened to annex, responded with diplomatic caution:

He called for a “peaceful, negotiated, and Venezuelan-led transition process that respects the democratic will of the Venezuelan people.” He also said Canada calls “on all parties to respect international law” and that the country “attaches great importance to resolution of crises through multilateral engagement.” (4)

Richard Haass, who as the former longtime President of the Council on Foreign Relations has impeccably “establishment” diplomatic credentials, discussed Saturday’s US attack on Venezuela in an interview. Let’s just say he’s skeptical of the prospects for this turning out well. (5)

Notes:

(1) Venezuela resiste a la captura de Nicolás Maduro. Página/12 04.01.2026. <https://www.pagina12.com.ar/2026/01/04/rechazo-en-venezuela-a-la-captura-de-nicolas-maduro/> (Accessed: 2026-04-01). My translation to English.

(2) Kiley, Sam (2026): This is the moment that Donald Trump unleashed anarchy. Independent 01/03/2026.<https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-trump-maduro-captured-caracas-invasion-b2894105.html> (Accessed: 2026-04-01).

(3) Latinoamérica repudió el ataque de Estados Unidos a Venezuela. Página/12 04.01.2026. <https://www.pagina12.com.ar/2026/01/03/latinoamerica-repudio-el-ataque-de-estados-unidos-a-venezuela/> (Accessed: 2026-04-01). My translation to English.

(4) Mark Carney urges Venezuelan-led transition following Maduro's capture. Politico 01/03/2026. <https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/03/canada-mark-carney-venezuela-reaction-00710081> (Accessed: 2026-04-01).

(5) Trump Strikes Venezuela — What Happens Now? - Katie Couric & Richard Haass. Katie Couric YouTube channel 01/03/2026. <https://youtu.be/9QnnBumHI2c?si=OtBGOjUTdUCZ8D0F> (Accessed: 2026-04-01).

Regime-change war in Veneuela for the New Year?

Our Peace President’s regime-change strike in Venezuela is still in the early reality-TV-shows stage right now.

But the safest prediction is that it will be a big, bloody mess. I’m trying to think of a half-feasible different option, but nothing comes to mind.

The columnist Will Bunch posted on Bluesky: (1)

As bad as the problems under Maduro have been, if the immediate results of this turn out well at all, it will be something closes to an actual miracle. That would be almost as surprising as Trump ending the Russia-Ukraine War on his first day in office.

If the miracle doesn’t happen and Venezuela has an extended period of civil strife, one of the most likely result would be a new outflow of refugees into Colombia and then further north.

The Peace President’s dwindling number of fans will presumably think this is another great “reality-TV” show event. But Will Bunch is calling attention to the fact that the various countries in the Western Hemisphere who he’s threatened with war – I count so far Denmark, Canada, Mexico, Panama, and (kinda-sorta) Colombia – must be thinking seriously about what alliances they need to make and what defense measures they need to take to protect themselves against US takeovers.

I expect that in his speech later today, the Peace President will tell us this is the greatest regime-change operation ever conducted, nobody’s ever seen anything like it, the whole world is amazed by it, blah, blah. If George W. Bush’s famous “Mission Accomplished” banner is still lying around in a White House storeroom, they can pull it out and use it as a backdrop for his speech.

At least for today, it would be conceivable (if highly unlikely) that there could be a reasonably smooth transition to a democratic government that could attract investors to modernize its oil industry.

But as the political scientist Reinhard Heinisch comments on Facebook, "Whatever happens in Caracas, the United States owns it," which is certainly spot on.

The most optimistic prediction I would make is that this will wind up as a godawful mess: I think Trump should use George W. Bush's famous "Mission Accomplished" banner as a backdrop to his press conference this afternoon.

Presumably somebody in the chaotic Trump 2.0 regime has some kind of blueprint or even active operations of some kind to facilitate putting a new regime in place. Whether that’s the good news or the bad news remains to be seen, though the latter is probably the worst case.

Argentina's President Javier Milei apparently is celebrating the regime-change strike in Venezuela. The outgoing President of Chile is condemning the attack. The new rightwing President-elect and Pinochet fan José Antonio Kast doesn't take office until March, but he's been cheering for Trump's regime-change pressure on Venezuela.

Connor Echols in an early commentary writes:

The operation marks a dramatic turn of events after months of U.S.-led escalation against the Maduro regime, which included a series of attacks on drug boats and even some targets within Venezuela. Maduro’s abduction, which appears to violate international law, comes just days after the now-ousted president offered to negotiate with Washington.

Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has requested that the U.S. provide proof of life for Maduro and his wife, who was also captured. It remains unclear whether Rodriguez will now take over as president. Advocates of regime change in Venezuela have generally hoped that this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, Maria Corina Machado, would take over after Maduro.

In a scathing editorial, the New York Times editorial board described the attack as “latter-day imperialism.” ...

It remains to be seen whether Trump will simply declare victory now that Maduro has been removed from office. A broader effort at regime change would likely require a more sustained U.S. military effort — one that may include a full-scale invasion, which could tip the country further into chaos. [my emphasis] (2)

Ben Hodges is the former commander of the US Army Europe (2014-2017) and since 2022 has often appeared on podcasts and TV broadcasts discussing the Russia-Ukraine War. Since leaving the military, he has also held the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis. He is also listed as part of the consulting team of Republica Consulting LLC, which lists “defense” as the first item on its “representative issue areas.” I don’t ever recall seeing an interview with him where he is identified as working for a defense consulting firm.

That doesn’t mean he isn’t well-informed on military issues. And if his firm is making money with him doing military consulting for them, he presumably has decent advice to give. And in this eight-minute clip on the Venezuela regime-changer operation, he makes some helpful observations. And he obviously thinks there are some hinky aspects of it: (3)

Notes:

(1) https://bsky.app/profile/willbunch.bsky.social/post/3mbje3uxzsk2s

(2) Echols, Connor (2026): Trump bombs Venezuela, captures Maduro. Responsible Statecraft 01/03/2026. <https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-venezuela-2674844625/> (Accessed: 2026-03-01.)

(3) Trump would've had help on the inside to capture Maduro | Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges. Times Radio YouTube channel 01/03/2026. <https://youtu.be/zJYpuZaVQFk?si=n0eMnQCRmJ-TGK5U> (Accessed: 2026-03-01.)

Reports on British and Polish prospects in Year 2 of the “new world order” of the Trump 2.0 era- and the what-if of the “Istanbul talks” of 2022

British strategists surely want to keep military cooperation with members of the current EU strong. But the country is caught in a dilemma. Like its neighbors in the EU, it needs economic stimulus but is still suffering from the chronic austerity-politics conventional wisdom that has afflicted it since the days of Maggie Thatcher’s premiership.

As Robert Skidelsky has recently noted, Prime Minister Keir Starmer seems to be hoping for stimulative effects from military spending. But Skidelsky warns about how promoting military spending can also lead to threat inflation in evaluating potential external dangers. (1)

Britain is a key ally for the EU countries in preparing the new security architecture in the new environment. But the current government of Starmer and Starmer’s own starkly conservative bent in politics are making Labour’s polling numbers resemble Donald Trump’s. And Starmer’s reckless embrace of rightwing xenophobic political themes is having the effect that such a strategy has had across Europe and also in the US: it is strengthening the far right in British politics.

With the US commitment to NATO and even to traditional nuclear deterrence in relation to Russia no longer as certain as they once were – to put it mildly – Britain’s role as one of the two NATO powers in Europe along with France makes its importance in collective European defense more urgent than ever.

The logic of nuclear deterrence here is not dependent on evaluations of the other side’s intentions. It’s dependent on the grim concept of Mutually Assured Destruction, whose initials MAD are grotesquely appropriate. It refers to the idea that it would be crazy for one nuclear nation to launch nukes against another one because the initiating country would also result in unacceptable destruction to the initiating nation, as well.

Zeteo reports on the messy British political situation: (2)

Poland’s positioning

Poland shares a border with Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and EU member Lithuania. From Poland’s viewpoint, it’s a potentially dangerous neighborhood even in the best of times. Poland’s border with Russia is the enclave containing Kaliningrad, which has no direct land connection to the rest of Russia.

Poland has one of the largest armies in the EU and currently has the most soldiers on active duty. And in the current situation, it’s not surprising that Poland is making more formal defensive preparation against potential Russian threats.

Poland plans to complete a new set of anti-drone fortifications along its eastern borders within two years, a top defence official has said, after a massive incursion of unmanned Russian aerial combat vehicles into Polish airspace earlier this year.

“We expect to have the first capabilities of the system in roughly six months, perhaps even sooner. And the full system will take 24 months to complete,” the deputy defence minister, Cezary Tomczyk, told the Guardian in an interview in Warsaw. …

More than a dozen suspected Russian drones entered Polish airspace in September, in an incident that led to airport closures, fighter jets being scrambled, and damage to buildings on the ground as drones were shot down. The foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, told the Guardian at the time that the attacks, which involved drones not carrying any ammunition, were an attempt by Russia “to test us without starting a war”. (3)

In the conventional scheme of things, it is the job of the defense ministries to evaluate the capabilities of potential adversaries and that of the foreign ministries to evaluate their intentions.

It’s notable that Foreign Minister Sikorski describes recent Russian drone incursions as being designed to test Poland but not to start a war, i.e., he’s stating his government’s public interpretation of Russian intentions. While the deputy defense minister is quoted as agreeing with Sikorski’s assessment but also refers to Russia’s capabilities:

“The truth is that as long as Ukraine is defending itself and fighting Russia, Europe is not at risk of war in the conventional, strict sense of the word. What we will face instead are provocations and acts of sabotage,” said Tomczyk. But, he said, if the west allowed Russia to win in Ukraine, it could be not long before the Kremlin set its sights on Europe.

That also touches on one of those more-than-one-thing-can-be-true issues. That is, every Western nation from Washington to Warsaw is aware that there are potential geopolitical benefits from weakening and/or distracting Russia with combat in Ukraine, whether or not those potential benefits are consistent at a given moment with Ukraine’s own perceived interests. That calculation would be consistent with need to evaluate the capabilities of potential adversaries.

But that does not mean that the polemical argument used by Russia and its partisans that the US and NATO deliberately provoked the current war in 2022 as a way to weaken Russia is accurate. It could certainly at the same time be true that once the war started, the notion that a war would weaken Russia played a role in the West’s response to the diplomatic initiative that Russia made soon after the 2022 invasion. In that instance, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently persuaded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to break off the talks that were taking place between Ukraine and Russia over an interim settlement proposed by Russia. (4) Those negotiations are now referred to as the “Istanbul talks.“

(There was a different set of talks in Istanbul in mid-2025 between Ukrainian and Russian representatives.) (5)

However serious or non-serious that Russian initiative may have been, it’s now long since become one of the many “what-ifs” of history.

In a December account of the 2022 “Istanbul talks” experience, Branko Marcetic concludes, “All of this will surely go down as one of the great missed opportunities of history.” (6)

It’s probably too early for “surely.” But it will likely remain an open “what-if” for a long time to come.

Notes:

(1) Skidelsky, Robert (2025): Ukraine - the delusion of the warmongers. Lord Robert Skidelsky’s Substack 12/15/2025. <https://robertskidelsky.substack.com/p/ukraine-the-delusion-of-the-warmongers> (Accessed: 2025-15-12).

(2) Is Keir Starmer CORRUPTING the Labour Party? Zeteo YouTube channel 12/27/2025. <https://youtu.be/O-P1hvPqymY?si=aQssb9122YWWt_I7> (Accessed: 2025-27-12).

(3) Walker, Shaun (2025): Poland preparing €2bn anti-drone fortifications along its eastern border amid Russian threat. The Guardian 12/27/2025. <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/27/poland-anti-drone-fortifications-eastern-borders-cezary-tomczyk> (Accessed: 2025-27-12).

(4) Echols, Connor (2022): Diplomacy Watch: Did Boris Johnson help stop a peace deal in Ukraine? Diplomacy Watch: Did Boris Johnson help stop a peace deal in Ukraine? Responsible Statecraft 09/02/2022 <https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/09/02/diplomacy-watch-why-did-the-west-stop-a-peace-deal-in-ukraine/> (Accessed: 2025-27-12).

The Russian proposal was analyzed at the time by Fiona Hill and Angela Stent in The World Putin Wants. Foreign Affairs Sept-Oct 2022, published online 08/25/2022. <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/world-putin-wants-fiona-hill-angela-stent> They took a notably skeptical approach to the possible seriousness of the proposal and a notably dark view of Putin’s broader territorial intentions. In that article, they accurately predicted, “if Donald Trump or a Republican with views like his becomes president of the United States in 2025, U.S. support for Ukraine will erode.”

(5) Russia and Ukraine discuss more prisoner exchanges at Istanbul talks (Accessed: 2025-27-12).

(6) Branko Marcetic (2025): Pranked Biden official exposes lie that Ukraine war was inevitable. Responsible Statecraft 12/17/2025. <https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-nato-sloat/> (Accessed: 2025-27-12).

Goodbye 2025, hello 2026 – hopefully a much better year for democracy in th e US and Europe

I’ll start this year-end post with my favorite protest song of 2025, “The F-Word.” (1)

I won’t try to make predictions for 2026. So I’ll settle for speculating on what news themes I’m likely to be following most.

The US economy is facing big risks. The Trump 2.0 slash-and-burn approach to government regulation all but guarantees that preventable problems will not be prevented. And problems that could be constructively managed will be managed irresponsibly.

David Cay Johnston just reported on some potentially serious dangers signs in the banking system:

Ominous signs that at least one of America’s “Too Big to Fail” banks is yet again seriously short of cash emerged this weekend in documents examined by James Henry, DCReport’s economics correspondent.

For the past two months the Federal Reserve has been silently injecting tens of billions of dollars of cash into banks. No one announced this. Henry found the evidence in public records that few, if any, Wall Street journalists consult, but that we routinely review at DCReport.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NYFed), acting like a financial Santa Claus to recklessly naughty bankers, delivered $17 billion in cash to an unknown bank or banks at 8 AM the morning after Christmas.

The sudden demands for cash to cover shortfalls began on Halloween. That day the NYFed injected more than $50 Billion into one or more unnamed banks. Since then, it has injected tens of billions into banks 14 times, delivering greenbacks galore roughly every third business day. [my emphasis] (2)

As he describes and illustrates with a dramatic chart, these are not routine transactions, and the amounts are far beyond what has been more since mid-2020. He discusses the report with Mark Thompson: (3)

Meanwhile, much of the positive economic growth in the US in 2025 has been driven by the speculative financial bubble around AI and much of the real investment has been coming from the monster data centers companies are building to support the enormous power demands that AI and cryptocurrency require. Kyle Bradley discussed this in an analysis last March for a journal from the University of Pennsylvania’s Program on Regulation:

Cryptocurrency mining requires enormous amounts of electricity. An oversight group estimates that Bitcoin—the original and most popular cryptocurrency—has a global annualized energy that matches Poland’s annual power consumption. One Bitcoin transaction uses as much energy as hundreds of thousands of credit card transactions.

Cryptocurrency, a digital and encrypted medium of exchange, has become popular partly because it offers a decentralized alternative to traditional currency. Although cryptocurrency can be used to buy goods and services, it is primarily treated as an investment asset. [my emphasis] (4)

He could have added that crypto also provides a valuable vehicle for financial scams, bribery, and other types of illegal transactions.

The drastic reduction of federal spending that produces direct and relatively immediate stimulation of the economy has been accompanied by a chaotic and foolish tariff policy.

As Paul Krugman has been reminding us for years on end, things don’t have to be this way. With an economic policy aimed primarily at improving opportunities and conditions for the vast majority instead of a policy aimed at catering to the proverbial One Percent, that is: “[I]n going from the Biden Administration to the Trump Administration, we have traded an economy that disproportionately benefited low-income workers to one that disproportionately benefits the well-off (particularly those who own a lot of stocks).” (5)

And he observes that far too much of the economic commentary we’re getting remains stuck in the fantasy world of the One Percenters and supply-side economics voodoo:

[T]oo much of the commentary is marred by a sort of lazy cynicism. Too many of these commentaries rely on the casual assumption that it has always been thus. Or at least, that it was as true during the Biden years as it is now. But that’s not true. David Autor, Arindrajit Dube and Annie McGrew have documented that the Biden era post-pandemic economic recovery was the opposite of what we are experiencing now. In fact, during the Biden recovery wage gains for low-paid workers were much larger than for those further up the income scale. In fact, the pro-low-income worker tilt of wage gains during the Biden recovery was something we haven’t seen since the “Great Compression” of the 1940s. And that narrowing of wage gaps was due to special factors, including wartime wage policy and a rapid expansion of unions. [my emphasis]

Europe in the new year

The shift in European power alignments now has Britain, the EU members, plus Switzerland - i.e., all of Europe except Russia and Russian-dominated countries like Georgia and Belarus – adjusting politically, economically, and militarily to the situation in which the Trump 2.0 is explicitly aligning with Russia to weaken European cohesion and, in particular, to undermine liberal democracy in Europe

This is going to be a complicated process in which the militaries of Britain, France, Germany, Poland, Spain, and Italy in particular will need to push for new coordination structures outside of the NATO umbrella. It’s probably not often enough mentioned that the collective defense capabilities of Europe in the case of a hypothetical military attack by Russia are organized under NATO command structures dominated by the US. And European intelligence capabilities including satellite resources are also heavily dependent on US resources and structure, including Elon Musk’s Starlink. No country should be dependent on the whims of Elon Musk for its intelligence capabilities.

Europe is pushing for Musk-independent intelligence with an arrangement called IRIS², “a multibillion-euro secure connectivity constellation pitched in 2022 and designed to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink system.” (6)

And Timothy Garten Ash recently characterized the message that the US is sending to the European democracies, including explicitly with the official 2025 National Security Strategy:

When it says, for example, that within a few decades at the latest certain NATO members—i.e., in Europe—will become majority non-European, that is very clearly code for non-white. That is a pretty startling statement to find in a national security strategy of the United States. When it says “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations,” that is a declaration of political war against the European Union.

Particularly, … if what has been reported elsewhere is true—that an earlier version of this suggested that four EU member states, Austria, Hungary, Poland and Italy, should be wooed away from the current European Union. It is a frontal declaration of political war against the European Union.

In historical context, I think it is interesting because, as you know very well, Yascha, for a large part of its history the United States was indifferent to Europe, wanted to stand apart from it, pulled away from its isolationism. Since 1945, we have had a United States that has supported a more liberal, more united Europe. This is the first time ever in history we have had a United States explicitly supporting an anti-liberal, xenophobic, nationalist, populist Europe. In a way, it is playing our own worst reactionary past in Europe back to us. [my emphasis] (7)

Elsewhere, we can expect based on the outgoing year that the Trump 2.0 Peace Administration will continue to foment, support, and engage directly in more armed conflict in the Middle East and the Western Hemisphere.

New Year’s Wish

2026 is a midterm election year in the US. The Democrats have a very good chance of doing well in it. It will require them to take getting out the vote and protecting against Republican voter-suppression measures very seriously. If I have just one New Year’s wish, it would be that no Democratic Member of Congress and especially no one in party leadership would use the word “bipartisan” at all this year, in any context. If some Republicans decide to peel off from the Trump Cult momentarily and work with the Democrats in Congress or in the states to support democracy and the rule of law, then call that “democracy-ship,” or “Spirit-of-the-American-Revolution-ship,” or whatever. 2026 is the 250th anniversary year of the American Revolution.

It doesn’t much matter if it sounds dorky. The Democrats need to remind voters constantly that they are the party of democracy, rule of law, and resistance to Trump and to the Trump Cult which the Republican Party faithfully supports. Please, no fantasizing about how “the fever will break,” or “no Red America-no-Blue-America,” or “when they go low, we go high.” The Democratic message needs to be, “We go democracy, the Trump Cult goes fascist.”

Finally, one thing that we’ve seen in American politics this year, is that when the public actively protest and demand that our representatives favor democracy and human rights, it works. The Republican Party may be so hopelessly welded to the Trump Cult that no actual grassroots pressure will have much effect on the leaders. Of course, as we saw with the infamous “Tea Party” movement during the Obama years, Republicans billionaires can be pretty good at putting on a astroturf version of grass-roots pressure.

But with American politics cursed by Big Money in campaigns, no one should expect the public of activists and grassroots Democrats can affords to “go back to brunch” if the Democrats take one or both Houses of Congress. They won’t accomplish the kinds of things they need to accomplish if they don’t get continuous pressure from the party base, issues groups, and NGOs.

Notes:

(1) The F-Word - Folk Protest Song Against Trump, MAGA, and Fascism. The Resistance YouTube channel 09/20/2025. <https://youtu.be/yJnvKkFcCzU?si=O2nkPxbFcNTouBWc> (Accessed: 31-12-2025).

(2) Johnston. David Cay (2025): Big Banks Enjoy Stealth Bailouts. DC Report 12/29/2025. <https://www.dcreport.org/2025/12/29/ny-fed-unlimited-cash-infusions-bank-crisis/> (Accessed: 31-12-2025).

(3) Big Banks Are Short of Cash: Another Bailout and Recession to Come, Prof. David Cay Johnston. The Mark Thompson YouTube channel 12/31/2025. <https://youtu.be/c3uepHkwm3Y?si=IfjrDlw7cT1RYqFW> (Accessed: 31-12-2025).

(4) Bradley, Kyle (2025): The Energy Costs of Cryptocurrency. The Regulatory Review 03/19/2025. <https://www.theregreview.org/2025/03/19/bradley-the-energy-costs-of-cryptocurrency/> (Accessed: 31-12-2025).

(5) Krugman Paul (2025): A New K in America. Paul Krugman Substack 12/23/2025. <https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-new-k-in-america> (Accessed: 31-12-2025).

(6) Roussi, Antoaneta (2025): Hacking space: Europe ramps up security of satellites. Politico EU 12/30/2025. <https://www.politico.eu/article/space-hacks-europe-ramps-up-security-satellites/> (Accessed: 31-12-2025).

(7) Ash, Timothy Garton (2025): Fighting Europe's good fight II.. History of the Present 12/16/2025. <https://timothygartonash.substack.com/p/fighting-europes-good-fight-ii> (Accessed: 31-12-2025).

Peace President’s plans for more war in the Middle East

When I say this YouTube news report (1) and wanted to repost it, I immediately found myself thinking if I should start identifying CBS News as “regime-conforming media,” now that Trumpista zealot Bari Weiss has been put in charge of it by its oligarch owner David Ellison.

In that clip, Peace President Trump, whose Eternal Peace Plan for the Middle East began last October 10, warns the Palestinian Hamas group of a new round of military attacks if it doesn’t do what he and Benjamin Netanyahu’s government says.

As a reminder, Trump told the Israeli Parliament in October: "After so many years of unceasing war and endless danger, today the skies are calm, the guns are silent, the sirens are still, and the sun rises on a Holy Land that is finally at peace, a land and a region that will live, God willing, in peace for all eternity." [my emphasis] (2)

To be fair, he did put in that “God willing” caveat that if the Eternal Peace Plan fails, it’s God’s fault, not Trump’s.

Ben Samuels reports on Trump’s Dec. 29 meeting with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago:

For all the murmurs and leaks about growing U.S. impatience with Israel's actions in Gaza and concerns about ratcheted-up tensions with Iran that could once again bring the Middle East on the precipice of regional war, in a brief appearance alongside Netanyahu on the steps of Mar-a-Lago, Trump once again demonstrated that he is firmly in Israel's corner.

Whether declining to put a firm timeline on moving Gaza to the next phase ("I think it's gonna begin pretty soon,") declining to publicly assert any pressure on Netanyahu over a Turkish military presence in Gaza, or effectively committing to involving U.S. forces in any new military action against Iranian nuclear targets ("If Iran builds up again, we'll knock the hell out of them,") Netanyahu could not have scripted Trump's answers better. …

Netanyahu could not have scripted the beginning of his U.S. visit better in his wildest dreams. How long he can presume to reap the benefits of Trump's breathless support is a question that will only intensify throughout 2026. [my emphasis] (3)

But since the Eternal Peace Plan is going so well, apparently, Israel has now decided to promote a secessionist movement in Somalia by recognizing a breakaway entity called “Somaliland.” A rebel group there issued a declaration of independence in 1991. International recognition has been slow to come. So slow, in fact, that Israel’s recognition this month made it the first country to recognize “Somaliland.”

If you’re thinking this means Netanyahu’s government has developed a sudden fondness for African liberation movement, well, no, that’s not it. Ragip Soylu explains:

... Israel’s decision to establish diplomatic ties with this de facto state is not popular in the region.

It has drawn criticism from many regional actors, including Turkey, which has heavily invested in Somalia over the past 13 years. Many Arab and regional countries, with the notable exception of the United Arab Emirates, condemned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision.

Amichai Stein, an Israeli journalist with i24 who specialises in regional affairs, agrees. Ragip Soylu explains:

“So far, Israel has not developed a clear strategy to counter the Houthis, and this step could help the Israeli government strengthen its influence in the region, especially as the Suez Canal is largely blocked for cargo traffic destined for Israel,” he said.

“A second goal is to counterbalance Turkey’s influence in the Horn of Africa, as Turkey maintains military bases in the area. Ankara is not alone, the UAE also has a base there, and several other countries are seeking access and influence in this strategically important trade gateway.”

Turkey has officially condemned the Israeli move, but all eyes are on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is expected to make a statement later this week. [my emphasis] (4)

As we’ve seen in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria just in recent years, Israel can be reluctant to recognize the permanence of international borders in its immediate region. But because of the colonial history of Africa, changing national borders there is a particularly touchy issue.

As the BBC reports, “A few months ago, a number of news outlets reported that Israel had contacted Somaliland over the potential resettlement of Palestinians forcibly removed from Gaza.” (5)

Notes:

(1) Trump warns that if Hamas doesn't disarm very soon, "there will be hell to pay". CBS News YouTube channel 12/29/2025. <https://youtu.be/flV7yrfbEII?si=uE0PggWkttW8xoi7> (Accessed: 2025-29-12).

(2) Hutchinson, Bill (2025): Trump declares end of Israel-Hamas war, but experts see the hard work as just beginning. ABC News 10/14/2025. <https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-declares-end-israel-hamas-war-experts-hard/story?id=126482789> (Accessed: 2025-29-12).

(3) Trump's Comments Outside Mar-a-Lago Read Like a Script Direct From Netanyahu. Haaretz 12/29/2025. Full link: <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/haaretz-today/2025-12-29/ty-article/.highlight/trumps-comments-outside-mar-a-lago-read-like-a-script-direct-from-netanyahu/0000019b-6b29-ddb6-abfb-fb29fdf70002?gift=74f79c22190741d8b5401eb2b7875bba> (Accessed: 2025-29-12).

(4) Soylu, Ragip (2025): Israel-Turkey rivalry moves to the Horn of Africa. Middle East Eye 12/29/2025. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-turkey-rivalry-moves-horn-africa> (Accessed: 2025-30-12).