New US-German-EU understanding over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project

The Biden-Harris Administration reached an understanding with Germany to drop US sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 project, Germany, US strike Nord Stream 2 compromise deal Deutsche Welle 07/22/2021:

That DW report suggests plausibly (though not precisely in these terms) that Biden's position has to do with balancing together with the EU and Russia against China. From an American or EU viewpoint, whether Nord Stream 2 is helpful or detrimental geopolitically depends on how it fits into the much larger network of relationships among the US, EU, Russia, and China.

DW also notes that the German Green Party is cool toward the Nord Stream 2 project, partially on environmental grouods but also because they want a less friendly policy toward Russia. The Greens' foreign policy has long since ceased to be the "pacifist" policy it once was. They are now more focused on showing they are "tough" and "pragmatic".

Wolfgang Münchau of Eurointelligence calls Nord Stream 2 "a sordid gas pipeline deal," though in a 2020 column I previously cited it's not entirely clear what he finds "sordid" about it. The US had previously opposed it for several reasons, including its potential to increase European dependence of Russian oil and therefore make the EU more vulnerable to Russian pressure by withholding oil, as Russia has done with Ukraine. And obviously there are a number of outstanding disputes over particular problems between the US and Russia, including Russia's annexation of Ukraine's territory in Crimea and Russian and Russian interference in US elections.

Germany has seen Nord Stream 2 as a profitable project for German firms and a contribution to energy stability, which is a major feature of EU energy policy. There are objections from environmental groups to the project. And eastern European countries, notably including Poland, are also opposed to it because of fear of increased Russian influence.

But with this project, influence and dependence go both ways. It is also a fundamental idea of the EU and Germany in particular that increased economic ties promote peace and make war less likely. Russia's is a petrostate, its economy still heavily dependent on oil exports, as it has been since the 1970s under the Soviet Union. So Russia sees both profit and potential political clout in the deal.

Again, how heavily the influence leans on one side or the other depends heavily on the broader course of EU-Russia relations. Is it necessary to add that the Trump-Pence Administration's stalling of the project did not seem to take much concern for the4 complexities of that larger picture? Trump hated Merkel, and his own considerations may not have gone much beyond that.

Here's a background report from earlier this month by FRANCE 24 English, Nord Stream 2: A pipeline too far? 07/09/2021:

Russia-EU relations and three NGOs newly banned in Russia

Wolfgang Münchau seems to be convinced that the Nord Stream 2 project is about the worst thing in the world. Or at least in Eueope. In his Eurointelligence public post of June 1 and May 28 ("Crisis in Russian-German relations"), he makes it sound like the Nord Stream 2 project is something like a completey complete capitulation of German sovereignty to Vladimir Putin.

I wrote about this last year in EU-US trade disputes, including digital firm taxes and Nord Stream 2.

In today's article, Münchau refers to three German NGOs operating in Russia that were banned, organizations that probably very few EU citizens have ever heard of:

The three NGOs are the Center for Liberal Modernity, the German Russian Exchange, and the much smaller Forum of Russian-Speaking Europeans. Russia banned them over undesirable activities that violate Russian interests. Russia accuses the organisations of justifying terrorist activities and of resisting Russian energy projects, including Nord Stream 2.

I would assume - knowing virtually nothing about the specifics - that the charge of "justifying terrorist activities" is mostly bogus, if only because it doesn't fit with the other charge. If an NGO is trying to lobby against the Nord Stream 2 project in Russia, why would it risk its credibility by "justifying terrorist activities"?

This is another reminder that international relations operate on a continuum from those activities formally considered totally legitimate to those that are cynical and illegal. And intelligence agencies will operate to gather information and promote national policy ends across that whole spectrum. It's very hard for citizens and news consumers to make an isolated judgment in cases like this where these three little-known NGOs are banned without a great deal more information about the context.

But Münchau seems to think this is all part a larger failure of German foreign policy testosterone in relations with Russia:

In this context we noted a comment by the British journalist Will Hutton who made the observation that the dictators are winning against the democrats. We agree with his observation, but disagree with the reasons. It is not because the west was not living according to its values, as Hutton argues, but because the west is willing to do dirty deals with the dictators for short-term gains, and not stand up to them. The ban of the three German NGOs is the best example of what happens if you don't. [my emphasis]

Here is some additional information about the NGOS in question. Center for Liberal Modernity (Das Progressive Zentrum website):

The Center for Liberal Modernity is a German think tank that was founded by the Green politicians Marieluise Beck and Ralf Fücks in 2017. LibMod is aimed to be a rallying point for free thinkers from different political camps, finding answers to the challenges of our time and promoting the formation of political thought in that spirit.

From the Center's website, Statement by Ralf Fücks und Marieluise Beck 05/27/2021:

Our by far biggest German-Russian project is “Climate change and eco­nomic modernization of Russia”, which comprises numerous experts from both coun­tries. In addition, we are running a German-Russian dia­logue project about the importance of Andrei Sakharov. We also host the website www.russlandverstehen.eu and the annual international conference “Russia and the West”. Our Russia-related activities are partially funded by the German Foreign Ministry.

We never disguised our critical position versus the Putin-Regime which made us focus on cooperation with Russian civil society and engaging in the debate about adequate policies vis a vis Russia in both Germany and the EU. Our dream (for the future) is a democratic and European Russia.

German Russian Exchange (DRA) website: Russia labeled the DRA as "undesirable" 05/26/2021:

During all years of its existence, the DRA has provided tens of thousands of people with additional expertise and intercultural experience through specialist and educational programs, volunteer stays, resource centers and projects to overcome conflict. In addition, our work has made possible personal contacts that have shaped the lives of those involved for many years or even forever. By co-founding and developing important international platforms, the DRA has brought civil societies in many countries closer together. Finally, for years the organization has been a member of the Petersburg Dialogue which promotes cooperation between civil societies in Germany and Russia.

Deutsche Welle reports (German-Russian Petersburg Dialogue forum in jeopardy over NGO ban 05/28/2021): "The Forum of Russian-Speaking Europeans, meanwhile, was founded in 2017 by a Berlin-based Russian exile. The organization describes itself as a network of actors 'subscribing to liberal-democratic values, who oppose Putin's dictatorship, aggression and propaganda.' The NGO stages anti-Kremlin protest events." (my emphasis)

Nord Stream II und Russlands Rolle in der europäischen Energieversorgung

Russland liefert derzeit rund 25 % des europäischen Erdgases, von dem ein erheblicher Teil durch die Ukraine transportiert wird. Russland ist der weltweit zweitgrößte Produzent von Öl- und Gaskondensat und Erdgas. Erdgas gewinnt für die EU immer mehr an Bedeutung, da sich die Länder von weniger umweltfreundlichen Energiequellen wie Kohle abwenden.

Nord Stream II ist ein kommerzielles Pipeline-Projekt, das flüssiges Erdgas (liquid natural gas, LNG) liefern würde, das unter Wasser durch den Finnischen Meerbusen von Russland nach Deutschland gepumpt wird. Das russische Unternehmen Gazprom kontrolliert nun das Projekt. Gazprom soll in der Lage sein, Europa mit Gaslieferungen zu einem guten wettbewerbsfähigen Preis zu versorgen. Nord Stream II ist eine Ergänzung des Nord Stream I Pipelinesystems, das 2011 in Betrieb ging.

Angela Merkel sieht in dem Nord Stream II-Projekt ein wichtiges Element in den Beziehungen zwischen Deutschland und der EU zu Russland und bietet sowohl eine für beide Seiten vorteilhafte wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit als auch einen verstärkten Einfluss von Deutschland und der EU auf Russland. Das Projekt ist derzeit ins Stocken geraten, 160 Kilometer Pipeline müssen noch verlegt werden. Die USA drohen ab 2019 mit extraterritorialen Sanktionen gegen europäische Unternehmen, die an dem Projekt teilnehmen, was Deutschland und die EU als Verletzung ihrer Souveränität ansehen.

Auf der anderen Seite haben einige EU-Partner Deutschlands Bedenken, dass Nord Stream 2 Russland eine unerwünschte Steigerung des wirtschaftlichen und politischen Einflusses geben wird, die gegen die Interessen Deutschlands und Europas genutzt werden kann. Auf der anderen Seite ist Russland wirtschaftlich stark von seinem Energiegeschäft abhängig, daher wäre es auch für Russland eine komplizierte Angelegenheit, die Nord Stream 2-Verbindung als Mittel zu nutzen, um Europa seinen Willen aufzuzwingen.

Die USA und einige EU-Staaten, darunter Frankreich, haben Bedenken, dass das Projekt auch als Eine Möglichkeit dienen könnte, die Ukraine zu schwächen. Polen ist besorgt über den Wettbewerb, den das Projekt Polen in seiner Rolle dem Erdgaslieferanten für Europa bieten würde. Zuvor war es auch eine Politik der EU gewesen, die europäischen Erdgaslieferungen zu diversifizieren, um weniger von Russland abhängig zu sein.

Nord Stream II ist ein großer Teil der Beziehungen zwischen der EU und Russland. Und sie spielt auch eine Rolle bei der Ausgewogenheit der Beziehungen zwischen Russland und China.