How much hope can we put in the precarious Gaza settlement currently being finalized?

Gideon Levy, not one to be lightly optimistic about Israel’s handling of conflicts with the Palestinians, and certainly not one to imagine that Benjamin Netanyahu is or ever will be the creator of a just peace, allows himself a moment of optimism about the possibility of the latest cease-fire negotiations and the deal being sponsored by the Trump regime:

It is not a peace agreement between Israel and Gaza, which would, of course, have been much better, but rather an agreement that the United States forced on Israel. However, it has long been clear that only an imposed agreement can bring Israel to make a change. Here it is. A sign of hope for the continuation of coercive U.S. policies, without which nothing will move.

Tens of thousands of lives were saved this weekend. The fear, hunger, illnesses, suffering and hardship of over two million people may gradually come to an end. On Sunday, they will at least have their first night of sleep without the threat of bombardment over their exposed heads. Hundreds more people will have their freedom returned to them: the 20 living Israeli hostages, the 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israel and the 1,800 Gaza residents, most of whom are innocent, who are detained in Israel. [my emphasis] (1)

Levy has also been blunt about the level of callousness shown repeatedly in polls on the part of a big majority of the Israeli population toward the genocide their country is committing in Gaza. In this moment in which he is allowing himself to look on the difficult-to-see hopeful side of the latest diplomatic dance between the US and Israel, he writes:

This moment should be seized to change the mood in Israel: It is time for Israelis to open their eyes and see their handiwork. Perhaps there's no point crying over spilt milk, but spilt blood is different. It is time to open the Gaza Strip to the media and tell the Israelis: See, this is what we have done. It is time to learn that relying solely on military force leads to devastation. It is time to understand that in the West Bank, we are creating another Gaza. And it is time to look straight ahead and say: We have sinned, we have acted wickedly, we have transgressed. [my emphasis]

And the situation at the moment continues to be grisly and grim. From Friday:

Hamas agreed to release all Israeli captives held in Gaza on Friday, after what it described as "in-depth consultations" with leadership ranks, Palestinian factions and mediators. ….

"In this context, the movement affirms its readiness to immediately enter into negotiations through the mediators to discuss the details of this. The movement also renews its agreement to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independents (technocrats), based on Palestinian national consensus and Arab and Islamic support," the group added. …

Hamas did not state that it agreed to the full 20-point plan as presented, and has, over the past week, repeatedly said that it needed to negotiate a number of points further.

Key among them is the demand for a demilitarised Gaza.

Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk told Al Jazeera that the group would not disarm before the Israeli occupation ends. [my emphasis] (2)

Foreign policy analysts tend to try to look for positive and constructive possibilities in situations like that of the current peace plan. If there is any reasonable chance it will lead to an improved situation, they are reluctant to dismiss it completely. But, especially in cases like the current one, the risk is that everything will go south, and possibly quickly.

Delaney Soliday takes such a position:

This Monday, President Donald Trump unveiled a 20-point plan to end the war in the Gaza Strip. The plan addresses many key issues perpetuating the current conflict between Israel and Hamas, but it may be too ambitious for its own good. A successful post-war plan for Gaza must prioritize crisis management, security, and interim governance before addressing longer-term challenges, such as economic recovery and reconstruction.

Negotiators should first focus their efforts on securing a deal that ends the war in Gaza, ensures a coordinated Israeli withdrawal from the enclave, sets up an interim governing body, and addresses the immediate humanitarian needs of Gazan civilians. While any plan for post-war Gaza is better than no plan at all, negotiations must prioritize policies that can first “stem the bleeding” before looking to longer-term initiatives like investment and real estate development. [my emphasis] (3)

He also discusses several obvious features of the plan that could fall through, e.g., “Trump’s plan also fails to mention a role for Palestinians on [the proposed] oversight board [for Gaza to be headed by Donald Trump and Tony Blair], nor does it address Gaza’s reunification with the West Bank.”

And there is still Netanyahu’s decades-long effort to have war with Iran in which the US would be drawn into a regime-change war which would (in his hopes) drastically weaken Iran or even turn it into a failed state.

Jasim Al-Azzawi assesses some of the major risk factors in such a scenario in the current situation. One factor that became obvious during Israel’s “12-day war” with Iran this year is that Iran now has hypersonic missiles that dramatically increase their ability to do damage to Israel:

“The hypersonic threat remakes the math entirely,” said Dr Tal Kalisky, a missile defence expert from Israel. Even as he highlighted that Israel had successfully shot down more than 95 per cent of ordinary missiles, he acknowledged the unprecedented challenge posed by missiles descending from beyond the atmosphere at speeds a decade faster than the speed of sound, splitting their warheads in flight.

Only Arrow 3 and David’s Sling [Israeli defensive systems] are capable of mid-air adjustment to pursue such threats, and both are dependent upon interceptor reserves that dipped perilously low during June’s action. An early-July Israeli Defence Ministry evaluation reported a general success rate of 86 per cent against ballistic missiles in the conflict. But here lies the key question: What if Iran fires not 400 missiles over 12 days, but 400 missiles in 24 hours? … [my emphasis] (4)

And he points out how Netanyahu’s reckless assassination policies raise the stakes considerably a war with Iran:

Israel’s June campaign introduced a dangerous new variable that will make any future war that much more unstable: deliberate targeting of Iranian leadership. The campaign, which assassinated senior military, political, and at least nine nuclear scientists, has not gone unnoticed by Tehran’s ruling elite.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly admitted to being on Israel’s hit list, yet secretly assured advisors that any attempt on top leaders’ lives would be met with a region-shaking military response. Iran’s leadership succession crisis only increases the stakes. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 85, has signaled three possible successors but has not directly appointed any. Israeli intelligence officials believe that such a power vacuum would either radicalise or moderate Tehran’s response, depending on the individuals who ultimately come to power. Decapitation tactics cut both ways. Israel showed that it can reach deep into Iran’s command hierarchy. However, that capability may actually accelerate rather than decelerate conflict if Tehran’s leadership concludes that it needs to act before it becomes a target itself. [my emphasis]

This recent 1 1/2 hour presentation by Ilan Pappé gives important general background on the Israel-Palestine conflict (although the last half is a question period, which drags a bit): (5)

Notes:

(1) Levy, Gideon (2025): Do Cry Over Spilt Blood: Generations Will Go by Before Gaza Forgets the Genocide. Haaretz 10/05/2025. Full link: <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025-10-05/ty-article-opinion/.premium/do-cry-over-spilt-blood-generations-will-go-by-before-gaza-forgets-the-genocide/00000199-afd4-d5a6-afff-efdff5560000?gift=932c6ccd1b264ac9b8f7d70c7bfbf12e> (Accessed: 2025-05-10).

(2) El-Sabawi, Yasmine (2025): Hamas agrees to release Israeli captives but rejects foreign governorship of Gaza Middle East Eye 10/03/2025. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/hamas-agrees-release-all-israeli-captives-dead-or-alive> (Accessed: 2025-05-10).

(3) Soliday, Delaney (2025): Donald Trump’s Gaza Plan Skips Step One. The National Interest 10/03/2025. <https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/donald-trumps-gaza-plan-skips-step-one> (Accessed: 2025-05-10).

(4) Al-Azzawi, Jasim (2025): Round two: Why the next Israel-Iran War will shatter the Middle East. Middle East Monitor 10/04/2025. <https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20251004-round-two-why-the-next-israel-iran-war-will-shatter-the-middle-east/> (Accessed: 2025-05-10).

(5) Ilan Pappé on the Israel-Palestine Crisis. Science4Peace YouTube channel 10/01/2025. <https://youtu.be/fvb2mZAyooY?si=AedRR70MvTm48Dva> (Accessed: 2025-05-10).