Three congressional aides said Congress was officially notified of the intended commercial sale on May 5, as part of the regular review process before major foreign weapons sales agreements can go ahead. ...I don't see any way that Israel and other governments will not take the fact that this arms sale is proceeding now as a huge endorsement of Israel's current military actions against Palestinians. According to the Reuters timeline, the approval was given before Benjamin Netanyahu initiated the current round of violent confrontations after the failure of his negotiations to form a new government.
Congress was informed of the planned sale in April, as part of the normal informal review process before of the formal notification on May 5. Under U.S. law, the formal notification opens up a 15-day window for Congress to object to the sale, which is not expected despite the ongoing violence. ...
U.S. law allows Congress to object to weapons sales, but it is unlikely to do so in this case. Because Israel is among a handful of countries whose military deals are approved under an expedited process, the typical window for objecting will close before lawmakers can pass a resolution of disapproval, even if they were inclined to. [my emphasis]
If Austria's government flying an Israeli flag at its mains government building was a clear diplomatic signal of approval for Netanyahu's current actions - former Austria President Heinz Fischer did an editorial describing it as an amateurish diplomatic move (Einseitigkeit auf dem Dach des Kanzleramts? 05/17/2021) - the US proceeding with this trance of arms sales will surely be seen by all sides as complete support for Israel's current actions.
As of this report, the civilian deaths were 20-to-1 higher on the Palestinian side (Gaza Flare-up: 212 Gazans Killed in Israeli Strikes, IDF Downs Drone Near Jordan Border Haaretz Wiener Zeitung "Fighting between Israel and Hamas escalated in what has become the heaviest flare-up since the 2014 Gaza War. At least 212 people were killed in the Gaza Strip, and 10 in Israel in the most intensive aerial exchanges in years."
The Biden-Harris Administration is even blocking efforts by the UN Security Council to call on Israel for a cease fire. (Michelle Nichols, U.S. pursues quiet Mideast diplomacy, thwarts U.N. statement Reuters 05/17/2021) Hamas has already called for one.
A lot of the reporting and analysis on the US position has mentioned that the Biden-Harris Administration wants to tilt away from the US focus on the Greater Middle East to the diplomatic-political-military confrontation with China, and so finds the current outburst in Israel-Palestine particularly unwelcome in that regard. Since it's so commonly reported, I assume the White House is promoting that angle on the story. That's also not very encouraging. Because the main message would seem to be, "we don't really care what Netanyahu's government is going with the American aid and arms that the receive."
The EU's foreign ministers are holding a videoconference today to discuss the Israel-Palestine situation. David Hersyenhor and Rym Momtaz give this rundown on current positioning of EU countries (EU divisions over Israel-Palestine leave Brussels powerless as conflict worsens 05/17/2021):
Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, convened the special videoconference of ministers after issuing repeated statements in recent days imploring an end to the rocket fire against Israeli civilians by Hamas, and urging that Israel “act proportionately and avoid civilian casualties.” ...We'll see what comes out of EU diplomacy on this. But if France is the best hope in the EU for influencing a move to a cease fire, and the French President is taking a very public position of supporting Israel's disproportionate attacks against the open-air prison it runs in the Gaza Strip, that doesn't give a lot of cause for optimism.
Among the 27 member countries, Belgium, Ireland, Sweden and Luxembourg are among those most critical of Israel. Countries in Eastern Europe, especially Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, are among those in strongest support of Israel, though in recent days the flag of Israel has flown prominently over the HQ of Germany’s biggest governing party and official buildings in Austria and the Czech Republic in a show of support. Greece and Cyprus have also grown closer to Israel in recent years, partly because of tensions with Turkey.
France typically seeks to stake out more neutral ground, but President Emmanuel Macron’s office has issued statements in recent days that tilted decidedly toward Israel. The Elysée’s statements “firmly condemned rocket launching claimed by Hamas and other terrorist groups targeting the Israeli territory,” but were vaguer when referencing Israeli bombing.
On that, they said Macron had given his condolences to “the many Palestinian civilian losses resulting from military operations and ongoing clashes with Israel.” Macron also reiterated his “unwavering attachment to Israel’s security and its right to defend itself in line with international law,” but failed to reiterate his support for the rights of Palestinians, or recall the status of Jerusalem under international law, in line with France’s historic position. ...
[M]any diplomats, officials and experts said the EU’s best chance for influence in the Middle East was more likely to come from France, which after Brexit is the EU’s only permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. [my emphasis]
It's worth noting that Turkey's authoritarian President Tayyip Erdoğan in his typically arrogant style is denouncing Israel's actions and tweaking Israel to do more. (Turkey's Erdogan condemns Western powers for inaction against Israel Reuters 05/17/2021)
How serious he is about doing anything to push the EU on this is very questionable. But Turkey is holding around 3.5 million refugees, mostly from Middle East wars who became refugees in no small part because of previous US policies, based on the EU-Turkey agreement that Germany's Angela Merkel negotiated in 2015. Since European politician have been pretty feckless in developing a decent immigration policy that complies with international law since the refugee crisis of 2015-16, though, Turkey can threaten to send large numbers of refugees to Europe. And, as we saw in 2020, such a threat puts EU leaders into a panic. We'll see what develops.
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