Orbánism and authoritarianism in Hungary

Shalini Randeria analyzes examples of how rightwing populists can turn a democratic government into an authoritarian one without staging a coup, or a sudden revolution overturning the old governmental system, or blatantly going outside the letter of the law. Her article gives particular attention to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party, who she describes as practicing "soft authoritarian rule" via "electoral authoritarianism."

She focuses on the use of ethnonationalist demagoguery and extreme gerrymandering in Hungary.

Randeria writes that one of the characteristics of ethnonationalist´politics to encourage "pro-natalist" policies. This means some form of promoting a higher rate of reproduction by those who are part of the favored type of people, or ethnic group, or Volk. This also tends to enable traditional masculine attitudes, some of them more toxic than others. She cites the new anti-abortion laws in Poland, and Hungary's withdrawal of rights based on non-binary, non-traditional gender identities, as well as the Orbán government' hostility to women's rights in general. "A politics that defines an ethnically, "racially" or religiously homogeneous nation as a political ideal and goal mobilizes against alleged internal enemies, for example, against cosmopolitan elites, minorities or against migrants."

(All the translations from German in this post are mine.)

Even the word "migrants" has an ideoligical twist in its use by European xenophobes. They assume that "refugee" and "immigrant" are more sympathetic and neutral terms. So they prefer to talk about "migration" and "migrants," because that invokes more of an image of people voluntarily wandering from one country to another.

"Pro-natalist" creates there is an implication and sometimes a more explicit demand to promote people from the pure natural ethnic groups to have more children. 

This is a big joke in the real world. Not one of the 27 countries in the European Union has a birth rate as high as the "replacement rate" that would keep the country's population stable over the long term. That rate is generally taken to be 2,1 children per woman. New immigrants, i.e., people who immigrate as adults, tend to have more children. But children of immigrants tend to have birth rates reflecting that of the country in which they grew up.

Which isn't surprising. Because children of immigrants to Hungary or Poland or Austria who grow up in those countries are Hungarians and Poles and Austrians. So that is one of many ways they are like their fellow Hungarians, Poles and Austrians.

Randeria gives a good description of voter suppression measures in Hungary, which she rightly compares to those the Republican Party in America is actively pursuing. She also compares gerrymandering by Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez to that of Orbán. I'm not familiar with drawing of electoral districts in Venezuela during his Presidency, and that charge is new to me. I do know about the American Republican Party's redistricting habits. And they are very compatable with Orbánism.

But the political body is deformed not only by population politics, but also by a strategic transformation of the electoral law. The fact that Viktor Orbán, as well as Hugo Chávez, used this tactic shows that such attacks on democracy do not only come from the far right. [Until recently, Fidesz had been a conservative party in the European Christian Democratic tradition.] The American political scientist Kim Lane Scheppele of Princeton University uses the term "autocratic legalism" to describe how legal and constitutional measures shift the democratic rules of the game toward illiberalism. In this respect, a variety of soft authoritarian tactics and practices can be observed. One measure favored by American Republicans is gerrymandering. The strategic manipulation of constituency boundaries is intended to distort election results in the long term in order to secure a political advantage for one's own party in the long term. [my emphasis]

There can also be other kinds of gerrymandering. In the US, we're all to familiar with racial gerrymandering. But since we're talking about electoral districts, partisan political considerations are always present.

Viktor Orbán's government in Hungary has taken this tactic to the extreme: it first halved the number of constituencies and then completely redefined the boundaries of these constituencies throughout the country. Constituencies that traditionally voted for Orbán's Fidesz party by a majority came out much smaller than those in which opposition parties could count on greater electoral success. [Opposition voting strength was diluted, in other words.] As a result of these demarcations, Orbán's Fidesz party won two-thirds of the seats in parliament in 2014 with only 45 percent of the vote. With this majority in his back, it was easy for Fidesz to make further constitutional changes. As early as 2012, there had been a constitutional amendment under Orbán, in which ethnic Hungarians living in neighboring states and without residency in Hungary were given the right to vote. A full 95 percent of these new voters outside Hungary's borders voted for the Fidesz party in 2014. In doing so, Orbán‘s government has succeeded in changing the electorate to serve its [Fidesz’] own long-term advantage. [my emphasis]

The gerrymandering is indeed extreme. But the addition of ethnic Hungarians living in other countries is also a disturbing piece of enthonationalist chauvinism, connected with resentments over the Treaty of Trianon (1920). Although Orbán isn't about to start a war with any of Hungary's neighbors over it, countries like Romania have reason to be concerned about Orbán's posturing.

Shaun Walker reported last year (Hungary marks treaty centenary as Orbán harnesses 'Trianon trauma' Guardian 06/04/2020):

While never speaking directly about reclaiming lost territory, Orbán’s government has made Hungarian minority populations in neighbouring countries a cornerstone of its foreign policy, pumping money into cultural centres, media outlets, churches and football clubs in the region and handing out Hungarian passports to those who want them. Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Hungarians have taken up the offer, and the vast majority have cast votes for Orbán’s Fidesz party, cementing its control over Hungarian politics.

Last month, Orbán caused consternation in a number of regional capitals by posting a map of historical Hungary on his Facebook page as part of a post wishing students good luck with their history exams. Slovenia’s president, Borut Pahor, expressed “rejection and concern” over the map. The rights of Hungarian minorities have caused tension in relations with both Romania and Ukraine in recent years. [my emphasis]