I'm hopeful, too. But but unless the Senate Democrats can get all their 50 members to vote with Kamala Harris to abolish or drastically modify the filibuster rule, it's hard to see how a lot of the legislation is going to get through. As long as the Democrats know they won't get their major proposals passed without not just President Joe Manchin but 10 Republicans, they can propose great things knowing they will be blocked in the Senate and then they can both tell their corporate donors, "see, Biden promised nothing fundamental would change" (and he literally did promise corporate donors that!) AND the Democrats can use those proposals in their innumerable fundraising appeals to say, "Send us more money and maybe we can get these things done in 2023".
President Biden's full joint address to Congress President Biden's full joint address to Congress PBS Newshour 04/29/2021:
The prepared text for the speech is posted on the White House website.
It was a great speech. Especially considering that it was chronic moderate Joe Biden giving it!
And he sounded like a real Democrat. The speech had only two mentions of the word "deficit". Two too many, but it's refreshing. Since one of them was criticizing Republican deficit-creation, so I'm willing to count that one as only a half-mention. The COVID relief bill was actually good on the substance, and Biden did a decent job on saying, hey, this is what we delivered for you and the Republicans fought against it all. That's exactly what Democrats need to be doing.
And good on Biden for sticking with his Afghanistan withdrawal scenario. In a weird irony, Noam Chomsky of all people told Mehdi Hasan in a recent interview that he was opposed to Biden's Afghanistan withdrawal plan. Good grief!
I'm staying on trust-but-verify mode with Biden. The new voting rights bill (H.R.1 - For the People Act) has to get through, and the filibuster has to be changed to get that done. The economic and social spending Biden is proposing are good and they are popular. The good news is that large parts of that can be done through reconciliation. How much the Democrats will let President Joe Manchin determine what gets through is critical. President Manchin just said it would be awful to pass the For the People bill by adjusting the filibuster. Having these proposals of Biden's as a wishlist for fundraising letters is nice. Getting them passed would be much, much better.
The worst-case situation on this is that the Democrats let Pres. Manchin kill the voting rights bill and block most of Biden's economic proposals. That gives the Republicans a Jim Crow playing field in many states in 2022 . And they will campaign with issues like, "The weak Dem-u-crat Party couldn't get any of their librul programs they promised through! And they're Communists and culture-cancellers! Plus Biden wants to ban you from eating hamburgers, force you to wear masks forever, and only allow plant-based beer!"
But Republicans winning control of either House of Congress in 2022 would be a nightmare. The 100 Years of Darkness scenario is not a desirable one!
Biden's rhetoric against police murder was good. And he's backing it up with at least some high-profile federal interventions into local police misconduct. But the results really, really matter. And when you think that Minneapolis was considered to be a model *success* story of the Clinton-Obama "community policing" concept, that is a questionable template. Because as long as cops are trained to murder black people on a hair trigger, having them spend more time in minority neighborhoods will mean even more opportunities for more needless shootings.
Biden's making some good moves on immigration. But the current policy on asylum seekers is still in violation of international law and it's wrong. And I tend to think that when politicians talk about solving refugee problems by aiding countries to reduce the source is 99% hot air. That goes for Biden's talk last night about Central America.
For one thing, a massive economic development program in Central America would be a long-term undertaking. And the biggest single thing the US has done in the last 12 years to affect the Central American refugee situation was backing the coup in Honduras in 2009, which caused a huge deterioration in the regional security conditions. That was during the Obama-Biden Administration when Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State, a serious departure from the Don't-Do-Stupid-Stuff principle. "Woke" rhetoric is fine. Developing a Latin American policy that doesn't suck would be much better.
Additional material relating to assessing Biden's first 100 days:
Kate Aronoff, Biden’s 100-Day Honeymoon With the Climate Left Is Coming to an End New Republic 04/29/2021
Andrew Latham, ‘Peak China’ and the prospects for a US offshore balancing strategy Responsible Statecraft 04/28//2021.
Aysha Qamar, Surprise! The world likes the U.S. much better with Joe Biden in charge Daily Kos 04/28/2021
David Dayen, First 100: The American Families Plan The American Prospect 04/28//2021
What we think of Biden’s first 100 days in office Responsible Statecraft 04/27/2021. Short takes from various Quincy Institute experts.
Dilip Hiro, Biden’s anti-China ambitions: A reality check Responsible Statecraft 04/24/2021
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